Migration worsening Belarusian economy outlook – expert

May 4, BPN. High migration numbers will widen the gap in economic development between Belarus and neighboring Lithuania and Poland, says a report by Kaciaryna Barnukova, academic director of the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).

“Migration is already affecting the economy today, shaving off 0.5 percent of GDP,” she said. The aging population and migration would make Belarus a lot poorer in ten years, as there would not be enough taxpayers to cover all the pensions, the expert noted.

Migration affects more and more people as they do not see any new opportunities and consider moving to other countries to improve their career chances, Barnukova warned.

Some 100,000 people have emigrated from Belarus over the last two years, both for political and economic reasons, she said.

Limited data availability makes it difficult to assess the exact extent of migration, she noted.

Belarusian labor market data prove that tens of thousands of people have left, Banukova said. The number of people employed in Belarus’ economy fell by 112,000 in February 2023 against the previous year, with 17,000 in the IT sector alone. Migration, along with retirement, must have fueled the trend, the she said.

By June 2022, more than 52,000 Belarusians had Polish residence permits or other papers entitling them to live in the country, while over 15,000 Belarusians found new jobs in Poland in 2022, the report said.

Another indirect migration indicator is the number of Belarusian children enrolled in Polish schools, which grew from 24,300 in September 2022 to 26,000 at the end of the year, the expert noted.

The number of Belarusians holding PESEL, Polish social security number, reportedly rose by 103,000 in 2022, she added.

In all, these figures suggest that between 50,000 to 100,000 Belarusians have left for Poland since 2020, Barnukova concluded.

In early 2023, the number of Belarusians residing in Lithuania rose to 48,800, an increase by some 25,000 since last year.

“If data is collected for all countries, where our compatriots have left, the total will be close to 100,000 in the last two years,” she said. “Belarus’ employment statistic indirectly proves the extent of migration.”