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No attempts at irregular entry from Belarus into Poland for three weeks
October 7, Pozirk. Poland has not recorded any attempts at irregular entry by undocumented third-country foreigners through Belarus since September 16, according to Pozirk’s analysis of border guards’ data.
Poland has reported 85 irregular crossing attempts from Belarus in September, up from 54 in August. In contrast to the previous years, the migrant pressure on Poland in the first nine months of 2026 was significantly lower than on Lithuania and Latvia. In particular, Poland prevented only 474 attempted crossings between January and September, compared with 11,945 crossings thwarted by Latvia and 1,699 by Lithuania.
Latvia has been targeted by irregular migrants for 196 days in a row. A major incident occurred at the Latvian border on Tuesday evening, when a group of masked gunmen attempted to push 20 migrants into the Latvian territory, shouting threats at Latvian border guards. Several hours later, masked individuals crossed the Latvian border from Belarus, damaged a relay cabinet and stole surveillance cameras before retreating to the Belarusian territory.
Lithuanian border guards recorded no irregular entry attempts by third-country foreigners on September 16, the day 25 Belarusian political prisoners were released and deported to Lithuania and US Special Envoy for Belarus John Coale visited Vilnius. The attempts resumed on September 17.
The halt in migrant activity at the Polish border came amid signs of a cautious reengagement between Minsk and Warsaw. On September 22, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski met Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ryžankoŭ on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. The meeting reportedly took place at the request of the Belarusian side.
Sikorski noted improvements along the shared border after many years without contacts at the ministerial level.
The flow of people eager to cross into the EU surged in spring 2021 after Alaksandar Łukašenka, angered by EU sanctions, had indicated that Minsk would not prevent asylum seekers from Africa and Asia from using Belarus as a route to the EU.
In June 2021, the Belarusian government suspended a readmission agreement with the EU in response to sanctions that followed the forced landing of a Ryanair flight in Minsk.
Latvia, Lithuania and Poland call the migration crisis a “hybrid attack” orchestrated by Minsk and Moscow.
Latvia’s interior minister warns Minsk after standoff involving armed men and border guards
October 7, Pozirk. Latvia’s Interior Minister Jānis Dombrava accused Belarus of staging a “demonstrative and aggressive provocation” on the shared border in a post on X last evening after border guards did not allow a group of 20 undocumented foreigners …
