June 14, Pozirk. Belarus will likely try to move its joint exercise with Russia away from the Ukrainian border to avoid provocation, President Volodymyr Zelensky told journalists yesterday, citing the Foreign Intelligence Service.
Although he did not name the exercise, he apparently meant the Belarusian-Russian strategic drill Zapad-2025, planned for September.
The Ukrainian president was commenting on prospects for a Russian offensive on the Zhytomyr, Volyn and Chernihiv regions, with the drill being a mere deception.
“The question is clear, since a full-scale offensive has already occurred from this sector after corresponding exercises,” Zelensky said, as quoted by UNIAN. “I think that [Alaksandar] Łukašenka himself is afraid that we in Ukraine would consider the presence of a contingent at the exercises as preparation for offensive operations. After our retaliatory action in the Kursk sector, he understands what we are capable of if we perceive a threat.”
The politician admitted he was not certain whether troops would aim to keep a distance from the Ukrainian border. “I had the latest report from the Foreign Intelligence Service a couple of days ago, and there was that signal. But we should check all that. Historically, we already know the risk of russian (sic) exercises, unfortunately,” he added.
Kyiv repeatedly warned its allies that Russia could attack Poland, Lithuania or Latvia, not just Ukraine, from Belarusian territory. In February 2022, Moscow had used an exercise in Belarus as a cover for military build-up ahead of an attack on Kyiv.
On May 28, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktar Chrenin announced that Minsk and Moscow would scale down the Zapad-2025 exercise and moving it farther away from Belarus’ border inside the country.
