{"id":96792,"date":"2024-07-22T09:35:51","date_gmt":"2024-07-22T06:35:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/96792\/"},"modified":"2024-07-22T09:35:52","modified_gmt":"2024-07-22T06:35:52","slug":"trumps-return-to-power-may-play-into-lukasenkas-hands","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/96792\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump’s return to power may play into \u0141uka\u0161enka’s hands"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In his public speeches, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka sharply criticizes the United States but also signals that he would like to improve relations with Washington. The Belarusian ruler, kept at arm\u2019s length by President Joe Biden\u2019s administration, may be looking forward to the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka meeting with Mike Pompeo, US secretary of state, in Minsk on February 1, 2020\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (\u0141uka\u0161enka's press office)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Many leaders condemned the attempted assassination of Trump on July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania, expressing support for the former US president, but Minsk has completely ignored the incident.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even Chinese President Xi Jinping, who should be wary of Trump\u2019s radical anti-Chinese rhetoric, promptly denounced the attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only Russian officials made sarcastic and cynical comments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka remains silent<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka, always quick to speculate on twists and turns of world politics, has been rather vague and late with his comments on key international developments recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the assassination attempt in Butler, the Belarusian state media repeated theories circulated by Russian propaganda, anticipating an escalation in the United States, described the USA as “the cradle of political banditry” and alluded to Biden’s possible involvement in the attack on his rival.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian foreign ministry and \u0141uka\u0161enka have not made any statements. In the following days, the Belarusian ruler repeatedly appeared in public but did not talk about Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka’s defiant indifference contradicts his declared desire to improve ties with Washington. Minsk’s silence may have something to do with the lack of reaction from Russian President Vladimir Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk did not dare to mock the United States, as Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova or Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did. On the other hand, Minsk would not express solidarity with Trump, probably waiting for Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the US and elsewhere in the West, Trump is seen as the Kremlin’s preferred candidate. The Russian state media and opinion leaders are supportive of the Republican.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Putin have said that they did not care about the outcome of the US election because it will not fundamentally change US-Russian relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin even indicated that he preferred Biden because he was more predictable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Biden has ended his re-election campaign and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris to succeed him as the Democratic candidate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moscow is primarily interested in political turmoil in the United States, hoping that it would distract Washington from Ukraine and give the Kremlin a chance to achieve its expansion goals in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian propaganda, followed by Belarusian propaganda, relishes this scenario. It certainly appeals to \u0141uka\u0161enka, an outspoken critic of the United States. The Belarusian ruler might also be happy to see Trump return to the White House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive experience<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On June 27, Biden and Trump held a primary debate. Discussing Moscow’s aggressive intentions, the incumbent US president emphasized that Putin intends to restore the Soviet empire, and if he subdues Ukraine, he will turn his attention to Belarus, Poland and other NATO countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As president of the United States, Biden has repeatedly commented on developments in Belarus and the prospects of its democratization. In 2021, he discussed Belarus with Putin in Geneva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following a crackdown on opponents and in response to \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s complicity in Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Biden administration imposed harsh sanctions on Minsk and established close contacts with the Belarusian pro-democracy movement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American president met with opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja twice. It is clear that if he won the election, Belarus\u2019 pro-democracy forces could count on support from Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, analysts worry that support for democracy and the promotion of liberal values would be low on Trump\u2019s agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During his first term, the American foreign policy was pragmatic, resulting in the high-profile visits to Minsk by National Security Advisor John Bolton in 2019 and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those visits were an attempt to forge ties with \u0141uka\u0161enka and thereby weaken Russia’s influence over Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The contacts alarmed the Kremlin, but did not lead to a breakthrough in mutual relations and had no long-term effect, just temporarily improved Minsk-Washington ties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, \u0141uka\u0161enka’s experience with the Trump administration has been rather positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And Minsk clearly would not mind capitalizing on it to expand its room for maneuver and possibly reduce dependence on Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This explains \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s enthusiasm when he spoke about the prospects of change in Washington in June 2023 and declared his readiness to receive Trump in Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More recently, new Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ry\u017eanko\u016d also lauded the Republican candidate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Yes, there are some things in Trump’s campaign that are close to us and close to many countries that are a little tired of US mentorship and interference in those matters that, from the point of view of the collective international community, are not the business of the United States of America,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In anticipation of Trump’s victory<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The unexpected return of Natalia Piatkevich to \u0141uka\u0161enka’s administration gave rise to speculation that she might try to mend ties with the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Her appointment came a few months before the US election. Piatkievi\u010d, the wife of Belarus’ representative to the UN, Valancin Rybako\u016d, has spent the last few years abroad, has connections in Washington and experience in negotiations with Americans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka’s sympathy for Trump is not only limited to his positive experience of engagement with his administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He might like the impulsive political style of the Republican leader, his outspoken populism and especially his criticism of liberal values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is hostile toward Biden because of his administration\u2019s ties with his opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, Trump’s return to power may play into \u0141uka\u0161enka’s hands and does not bode well for Belarusian pro-democracy forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new US administration may reduce its support for the pro-democracy forces and, in the worst case, stop supporting them altogether and engage with the regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

* * *<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka’s silence on the attempted assassination of Trump is a matter of tactics that can be explained by Minsk’s dependence on Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian ruler is by no means indifferent to the US presidential race, and Trump is clearly his favorite candidate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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