{"id":94346,"date":"2024-07-08T09:57:45","date_gmt":"2024-07-08T06:57:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/94346\/"},"modified":"2024-07-08T09:57:47","modified_gmt":"2024-07-08T06:57:47","slug":"vucic-hedges-bets-wiser-than-lukasenka","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/94346\/","title":{"rendered":"Vu\u010di\u0107 hedges bets wiser than \u0141uka\u0161enka"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Some politicians may find Serbian President Aleksandar Vu\u010di\u0107 difficult to deal with, but he is generally an acceptable partner for Western countries. Washington, London and Brussels have managed to find common ground with Serbia.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n
\n\n Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka and Aleksandar Vu\u010di\u0107 in Belgrade on December 3, 2019\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s press office)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

By contrast, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka often declares that he is ready for an “equal dialogue” with the\u00a0 West but has not been able to improve ties with democratic countries.

Moreover, the Belarusian ruler may follow in the footsteps of former Serbian leader Slobodan Milo\u0161evi\u0107<\/a>, whereas Vu\u010di\u0107 could be a role model for \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s successor.

Once an anti-American politician, Vu\u010di\u0107 has recently described the United States as Serbia\u2019s historic ally.

Meanwhile, Serbia has been discreetly stepping up sales of ammunition to the west that ends up bolstering the defense of Ukraine, The Financial Times<\/em> reported in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Diverging paths<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka stole the headlines in mid-April 1999 when he flew to Belgrade amid bombing raids to support President Milo\u0161evi\u0107 as NATO sought to force the Yugoslav president to stop the ethnic cleansing of Albanians in Kosovo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian state media outlets trumpeted the Belarusian leader\u2019s courage, claiming that he risked his life to save Yugoslavia, which the West allegedly wanted to destroy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The myth is still perpetuated by Belarusian state propaganda and senior officials.

\u0141uka\u0161enka’s visit triggered a major propaganda campaign both in Belarus and Yugoslavia. Vu\u010di\u0107, Serbia\u2019s information minister at the time, played an important role in it.

Since then, the paths of \u0141uka\u0161enka and Vu\u010di\u0107 have diverged.

The Belarusian ruler, notorious for his hostility toward the United States and its European allies, built an autocratic regime that has descended into totalitarianism after the government crackdown on mass protests in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Several years earlier, \u0141uka\u0161enka made an half-hearted effort to engage with the West but remained a pariah anyway. Moreover, in 2022 he became a co-aggressor in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Vu\u010di\u0107, a military propaganda officer and a member of the far-right Serbian Radical Party of war criminal Vojislav \u0160e\u0161elj, chastised the West and dreamed of a “Greater Serbia” in the 1990s. However, during his decade in power as prime minister from 2014 to 2017 and as president he has strengthened ties with the United States and the European Union and sees Serbia’s future in the EU.

Why did the anti-Western leaders, \u0141uka\u0161enka and Vu\u010di\u0107, took different political paths?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Balancing act<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Vu\u010di\u0107 knew that Serbia’s path to the EU would be thorny and that he would hardly be welcome in the family of Western European politicians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belgrade’s strategic European choice is not based on values, but on pragmatic interests. It was pre-determined to a certain extent by Serbia’s geographic location. Serbia is also attracted by economic prospects that EU membership offers.

Belgrade’s relations with Washington, London and Brussels have been rocky under Vu\u010di\u0107 but still constructive.

The Serbian government has been criticized for lack of progress toward democracy, corruption, reluctance to recognize Kosovo’s independence and radically revise its special relationship with Russia.

Vu\u010di\u0107’s authoritarian ways, dubious political past and overtures to the Kremlin have irritated politicians in Europe. Nevertheless, the Serbian president remains in office and performs his balancing act with some success.

Following the start of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, Belgrade has not imposed sanctions on Moscow and has even expanded economic ties with Russia. Vu\u010di\u0107 rejected in principle the possibility of direct supplies of Serbian arms to Kyiv.

In an interview with The Financial Times<\/em>, however, the Serbian leader said that Belgrade sold ammunition to third parties that might have supplied it to Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian ruler goes for open breach with West<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

To an outsider, relations between Belgrade and Minsk look relatively good. Unlike many Western politicians, Vu\u010di\u0107 has never criticized \u0141uka\u0161enka, whereas the high-handed Belarusian leader occasionally criticizes Belgrade.

Serbia does not bother about Belarus\u2019 poor human rights record. The arrest of Andrej Hniot, a Belarusian filmmaker and pro-democracy activist at Minsk’s request clearly shows that Serbia is not a safe haven for \u0141uka\u0161enka’s opponents. Hniot now faces extradition.

In late 2023, Vu\u010di\u0107 signaled his readiness to meet with \u0141uka\u0161enka in Belgrade. The Belarusian ruler greeted the Serbian president on Statehood Day in February 2024, describing Serbia as a reliable partner.

However, \u0141uka\u0161enka’s niceties hid his deep grudges against the Serbian government and especially against Vu\u010di\u0107.

Belgrade has formally aligned itself with the European sanctions against Belarus. In August 2022, the Belarusian strongman accused Belgrade of lacking the courage to stand up to the West.

In November 2023, \u0141uka\u0161enka said Belgrade needed to \u201cfigure out its policy\u201d towards Belarus. \u201cIf they want to wag their tails, roughly speaking, and support the European-American sanctions against Belarus, that\u2019s their business, let them decide and support [sanctions],\u201d he told Belarusian Ambassador to Serbia Siarhiej Malino\u016dski.

In January 2024, Serbian businessmen Bogoljub and Dragomir Kari\u0107 rolled back their construction projects in Belarus to avoid Western sanctions, drawing criticism from Minsk.

While \u0141uka\u0161enka has built a dictatorship in Belarus and refused to relinquish power even after nearly 30 years in office, Vu\u010di\u0107 is perceived in the West as a moderate autocrat.

For \u0141uka\u0161enka, a radical anti-Western politician, flirting with the US and the EU in the late 2010s was just an attempt to expand his room for maneuver in the face of Russian expansion. His rapprochement with the West was a tactical move, and he went for an open breach after the rigged election in 2020.

Vu\u010di\u0107, a political opportunist, has toned down his anti-Western rhetoric and pursues improved ties with the United States and the EU. Serbia’s backslide into dictatorship seems unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Path to Europe for Belarus<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka did not want to or could not follow in Vu\u010di\u0107’s footsteps. However, there is an example in Serbia\u2019s recent history that might have a special meaning for the Belarusian ruler.

Milo\u0161evi\u0107 conceded defeat in the 2000 presidential election, bowing to massive opposition demonstrations. He was arrested and sent to the war crimes tribunal in 2001. He was charged with 66 counts of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes in Bosnia, Croatia and Kosovo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Drawing on the prosecution of Yugoslavia\u2019s war criminals, the Belarusian opposition seeks an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia\u2019s possible defeat in Ukraine or the collapse of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime could spell the end of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s rule.

The West does not trust \u0141uka\u0161enka and does not want to deal with him. The Belarusian ruler does not trust the West, remembering well the fate of Milo\u0161evi\u0107 and Libyan dictator Muammar al-Gaddafi, who haltingly tried to improve ties with the West but was overthrown and killed by militants.

A more flexible and pragmatic leader, like Vu\u010di\u0107, may emerge after \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s fall to rebuild ties with the EU and United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian envoy in Serbia seeks to boost ties<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n



<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n




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Some politicians may find Serbian President Aleksandar Vu\u010di\u0107 difficult to deal with, but he is generally an acceptable partner for Western countries. Washington, London and Brussels have managed to find common ground with Serbia. 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