{"id":83960,"date":"2024-05-07T10:14:46","date_gmt":"2024-05-07T07:14:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/83960\/"},"modified":"2024-05-07T10:14:48","modified_gmt":"2024-05-07T07:14:48","slug":"lukasenkas-threats-to-exiled-opponents-should-be-taken-seriously","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/83960\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka’s threats to exiled opponents should be taken seriously"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Fearing for the future, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has a thirst for revenge for the 2020 protests. A man of short fuse, the impulsive strongman has the Kremlin\u2019s backing, so his threats to opponents abroad should be taken seriously.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Threats to kill political opponents became \u0141ukashenka’s signature style in the late 1990s, and the ruler has proven many times that he can go far to retaliate and hold on to power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

High-profile disappearances<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Soon after \u0141uka\u0161enka came to power in 1994, law enforcement officers beat members of parliament who went on hunger strike to protest a referendum that would introduce Soviet-style symbols and elevate status of the Russian language.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During his rule, disloyal officials have been imprisoned, while opposition leaders died or disappeared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On April 6, 1999, Hienad\u017a Karpienka, a prominent opposition politician and \u0141uka\u0161enka’s likely chief rival in the 2001 presidential election, died suddenly at the age of 50. Doctors said he died of a stroke, but evidence suggested that he might have been killed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1999-2000, former Interior Minister Juryj Zacharanka, opposition politician Viktar Han\u010dar, businessman Anatol Kraso\u016dski and cameraman Zmicier Zavadski were kidnapped and apparently murdered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the following decades, Belarusian secret services spied on foreign diplomats and leaked sensitive information about their private lives to state television networks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Presidential candidates and opposition politicians were imprisoned during every election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prominent journalist Pavie\u0142 \u0160eramiet was murdered in Kyiv on July 20, 2016. Investigators are looking into a theory that his assassination was ordered by Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the crackdown on peaceful protesters against election fraud in 2020 and in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine, \u0141uka\u0161enka’s authoritarian regime is increasingly taking on totalitarian features, and the police reprisal machine is running like clockwork.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the Belarusian ruler, his secret service and propagandists are discussing reprisals against opponents abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka and other exiled leaders of pro-democracy forces say they received threats and live under the protection of Polish and Lithuanian security services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Belarusian emigrants perceived the suspected murder of Vital \u0160y\u0161o\u016d, chairman of the Belarusian House in Ukraine, in Kyiv in August 2021 as a harbinger of the regime’s future operations abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Belarusian man was arrested in connection with the attack on Russian opposition politician Leonid Volkov in March 2024 in Vilnius, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can the KGB kidnap and assassinate Belarusian politicians who fled abroad fearing reprisals?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Secret services active abroad<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian security services often boast of success in spying on exiled opposition activists, claiming to have an extensive network of agents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, Minsk has had some success in driving a wedge among groups within the pro-democracy movement. Internal warring camps and fear of agents have become commonplace among the opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

KGB chief Ivan Tertel occasionally reports successful operations abroad, but there have been no apparent attempts to kidnap or eliminate opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a high-profile KGB operation, agents forced a Ryanair plane en route from Athens to Vilnius to land in Minsk in May 2021 to arrest one of its passengers Raman Pratasevi\u010d, former editor-in-chief of the Nexta <\/em>Telegram channel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agents followed Pratasevi\u010d and his companion Sofya Sapega in Greece and during the flight. To save his life, the journalist provided the KGB with information about activities of opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja and her entourage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One month before Pratasevi\u010d’s arrest, politician Alaksandar Fiaduta and lawyer Juryj Ziankovi\u010d were arrested in Moscow and later accused of plotting to overthrow the government in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The three incidents prove that the Belarusian KGB operate freely both in Belarus and Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the agency lacks experience and resources to kidnap and assassinate political opponents in the West. Besides, Minsk has no need for such radical measures just yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poorly-made documentaries aired by Belarusian state channels on orders from the KGB and other security services, unfounded allegations made by their employees and the recent hacking of KGB records by the Cyberpartisans hacktivist group have cast doubt on the spy agency\u2019s professionalism. However, its potential should not be underestimated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has repeatedly demonstrated that he does care about laws and can probably count on the help of his supporters abroad. The database of denunciations, recently hacked by the Cyberpartisans, shows that there are plenty of such people abroad.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian ruler enjoys full support of Russia whose spy agency is much more experienced in murdering people. Waging a hybrid war against the West, Moscow acts brutally and arrogantly, showing no mercy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is why it would be na\u00efve to ignore threats from Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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