{"id":83389,"date":"2024-05-03T14:48:23","date_gmt":"2024-05-03T11:48:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/83389\/"},"modified":"2024-05-03T14:58:18","modified_gmt":"2024-05-03T11:58:18","slug":"will-uns-help-lukasenka-retire","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/83389\/","title":{"rendered":"Will UNS help \u0141uka\u0161enka retire?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (UNS) is a power transition mechanism designed for a longer-term perspective, not for next year\u2019s presidential election. Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka will eventually step down for one reason or another.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n \u0141uka\u0161enka and delegates at UNS session in Minsk on April 25\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s press office)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The April 24-25 UNS convention was on par with Communist Party congresses in terms of praise of the leader and political grandstanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the UNS is not just a theater. \u0141uka\u0161enka is hoping that it will enable him to pull strings after retirement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Powers<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The UNS is designed to define strategic priorities, which it demonstrated to some extent at the session by approving a national security concept and a military doctrine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It confirms and dismisses Constitutional Court and Supreme Court judges, including the chairpersons, and central election commission members. It can even remove the president from office for “systematic or gross violations of the Constitution.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UNS delegates, except for the Presidium, are not paid for their work. They work at offices, factories, schools and companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After work, instead of watching TV shows, they are supposed to discuss strategic priorities, confirm judges and impeach the president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An undeclared key function of the UNS is to cushion the impact of electoral mechanisms on public politics as much as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2020 presidential election showed that the well-oiled vote-rigging machine can malfunction. The regime needs to hedge risks for the future and find a way to become even more independent of elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another essential function is to prepare conditions for collective leadership and smooth succession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Succession<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is confident that he will be re-elected in 2025 and continue to govern the country as the head of state and chairman of the UNS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are no signs that a successor will emerge in the near future. \u0141uka\u0161enka has said three times already that he will run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His re-election is probable but not predetermined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No doubt, \u0141uka\u0161enka has learned a lesson from Nursultan Nazarbayev and does not want to retire. But he is a child of the USSR aware of what happened to Soviet rulers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vladimir Lenin was locked out of politics, despite being the founder of the state and the head of government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Josef Stalin is an example of what can happen to your legacy, name, family and loyal supporters after your death if you do not take care of succession in advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leonid Brezhnev is an example of how a leader who does not take care of succession becomes a living mummy and a laughing stock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If \u0141uka\u0161enka decides to transfer power to someone else, his decision will not be advertised in the media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quite the contrary, he will hold a stage-managed election with successor gaining no more than 60 percent of the vote.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If a successor emerges, the person will make headlines no earlier than four or three months before the election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The media will highlight the incumbent’s blessing, not the candidate\u2019s popularity or charisma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long-term game<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka’s re-election is not a done deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His retirement depends on his health and dealings with the Kremlin and\/or political elites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Succession is probable in a longer term, from five to ten years. The UNS seems to be an alternate landing field for him, should he be a shambles in the run-up to the presidential race of 2025 or 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UNS chairperson is elected by no more than 1200 delegates, who are very easy to control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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