{"id":76148,"date":"2024-03-28T15:08:45","date_gmt":"2024-03-28T12:08:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/76148\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"despite-mixed-messages-lukasenka-not-really-interested-in-clash-with-nato","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/76148\/","title":{"rendered":"Despite mixed messages, \u0141uka\u0161enka not really interested in clash with NATO"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka dismissed as “complete nonsense” speculations that Russia and Belarus are toying with plans to attack NATO countries.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n
\n\n Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka at a mock military checkpoint near the border with Lithuania on March 26\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (\u0141uka\u0161enka website)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On March 26, \u0141uka\u0161enka made a show appearance at an army training ground in the A\u0161miany district, which borders Lithuania. He appeared before the cameras with a stern look dressed as commander-in-chief.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He warned officers against hesitating, or as he put it in Russian slang “chewing snot,” to use arms against any border violators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He pretended to be more informed than Russian President Vladimir Putin on who masterminded the Moscow concert hall attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Threats to Lithuania and Poland<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Talking about the NATO troops exercising in Lithuania, \u0141uka\u0161enka said, “Do they seriously think that we, together with the Russians, are trying to or will attack them? Why are they digging anti-tank trenches? We will not go there.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His statement stood in sharp contrast with his and his generals\u2019 belligerent remarks made several months ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In October, General Pava\u0142 Muraviejka, deputy head of the Belarusian Security Council, said that in response to Lithuania\u2019s refusal to allow the transit of Belarusian goods, Belarus “has every reason to cut a vital corridor by force of arms.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In July, \u0141uka\u0161enka created a stir by saying that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group militants based in Belarus were eager “to make a tour” of Warsaw and Rzesz\u00f3w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Around the same time, Andrei Kartopolov, head of the Russian Duma Defense Committee, said that the Wagner troops redeployed to Belarus were a “shock fist” capable of capturing the Suwalki Gap “in a matter of hours.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Suwalki Gap is a strip of land at the junction of Lithuania and Poland that is considered NATO’s weakness, since its capture would cut off the Baltic states from its allies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the face of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, NATO prefers to exercise caution. After all, Vladimir Putin can declare both Poland and the Baltic states, once under Russian and Soviet rule, to be native Russian lands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western politicians view \u0141uka\u0161enka’s regime as Russia\u2019s proxy ready to do whatever Moscow tells it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For instance, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said several months ago that Belarus is “actually one of Russia’s provinces.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opponent claims Minsk, Moscow have aggressive plans<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka’s comment came two days after a prominent opposition member accused Russia and Belarus of making plans to use nuclear weapons and discussing “some kind of blitzkrieg on Vilnius.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Valer Sacha\u0161\u010dyk, the defense minister in the cabinet of opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja, made the statement on March 24 at a rally in Warsaw.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The former commander of the 38th Airborne Assault Brigade in Brest, Sacha\u0161\u010dyk claims to have connections in Belarusian military circles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Sacha\u0161\u010dyk, “Belarusian generals, together with their colleagues from Moscow, are drawing arrows on maps in the direction of Vilnius.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Drawing arrows on maps is nothing new. Generals always prepare for wars, but that does not mean that the war will start tomorrow and that generals, especially the Belarusian ones, are eager to fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western generals also draw arrows. In 2016, for example, the United States held a war game, simulating a nuclear strike on Belarus in response to a hypothetical Russian attack on a Baltic state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No resources to attack Vilnius, just yet<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Vilnius and Warsaw coordinates are preprogrammed in Russian tactical nuclear weapons, but these warheads are unlikely to be used, said Aliaksandar Kazak, a political scientist and national security expert, told Pozirk<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He stressed that there is no reliable information about the presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus. “Intelligence and analysts have not confirmed it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An upgrade at the Asipovi\u010dy military depot in Belarus\u2019 Mahilo\u016d region shows security features that could potentially match upgrades required for nuclear warhead storage, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) think tank said earlier this month. However, the presence of nuclear munitions there has not been independently verified.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia\u2019s military presence in Belarus is mostly limited to maintenance personnel, Andrii Demchenko, a spokesman for the Ukrainian State Border Guard, told journalists on March 24.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian army is holding a drill near the Lithuanian border, but it involves a small number of troops, according to official reports and Bie\u0142aruski Hajun. \u0141uka\u0161enka obviously cannot take Vilnius with a tank battalion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kremlin’s game<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Opponents tend to demonize the Belarusian ruler, but when he says he does not want to attack anyone, it sounds quite sincere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In terms of authoritarianism, \u0141uka\u0161enka and Putin are two of a kind. The Belarusian dictator has tightened the screws in his country even more than Putin has in Russia. But unlike Putin, the Belarusian leader does not have imperial ambitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the 1990s, he might have dreamt of ruling Russia. That dream has never come true.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka said he was happy to host a Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, hoping that the West would be afraid of him, just as it is wary of North Korean President Kim Jong Un.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the Kremlin might have sited nuclear weapons in Belarus not just to please \u0141uka\u0161enka or give him additional security guarantees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That was an element of the Kremlin’s game against Ukraine and the West. The Kremlin’s evil plan may be that in case of serious trouble nuclear retaliation would be directed not against Russia but against Belarus. Just like in the above-mentioned scenario of the US war game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moscow has no resources to attack the Baltic states or Poland. Putin has his hands full in Ukraine, where he needs troops, equipment and ammunition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But if the Kremlin has its way in Ukraine, as a result of weakness and indecision on the part of the West, then after a while it may look to advance farther to Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka once swore that Ukraine would not be attacked from Belarus, but he could not resist Putin’s plan to attack Kyiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

True, \u0141uka\u0161enka has not deployed Belarusian troops to Ukraine, and there are signs that he may be negotiating with Kyiv behind the scenes. This is a weak game by Moscow\u2019s vassal trying to evade punishment for complicity in the aggression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Russia, in its frenzy, really decides to launch a blitzkrieg on Vilnius, Warsaw or Suwalki, the vassal will not be able to stay out of fighting, and the retaliation could be deadly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More smoke and mirrors<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Unlike Putin, \u0141uka\u0161enka and his propaganda have not yet blamed Ukraine and the West of masterminding the Moscow terrorist attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During his inspection of troops at the Lithuanian border, the ruler emphasized how closely he and his secret services worked with Russia after the attack and how they prevented the terrorists from fleeing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“That’s why they could not enter Belarus. They saw it. That’s why they turned around and went to the section of the Ukrainian-Russian border,” he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is a mystery how the alleged terrorists learned about the security services\u2019 plans. Who gave them the information?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka’s interpretation actually contradicts Putin’s claim that the attackers went straight to Ukraine, where a window on the border was supposedly prepared for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For \u0141ukasenka it is essential to promote himself and his law enforcers. He is not eager to stir up hysteria against Ukrainians, probably because his and Putin’s interests diverge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Putin, it is important to fan hatred possibly to justify mobilization and more brutal attacks against Ukraine, including strikes on civilian infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk knows that most Belarusians are against the war, and even the loyalists would be reluctant to fight against the Ukrainians. \u0141uka\u0161enka is well aware that any involvement of the Belarusian army would lead to retaliatory attacks on Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem is that his regime depends on the Kremlin, and Putin’s plans are unpredictable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, after the terrorist attack \u0141uka\u0161enka seized the opportunity to cast himself as a man more informed than his Russian counterpart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speaking about the “curators” of the terrorists, he alluded to some secret information that is inaccessible even to the Russian security services: “We have suspicions about some people, I’ll call Putin and tell him my suspicions.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka dismissed as “complete nonsense” speculations that Russia and Belarus are toying with plans to attack NATO countries. On March 26, \u0141uka\u0161enka made a show appearance at an army training ground in the A\u0161miany district, which borders Lithuania. He appeared before the cameras with a stern look dressed as commander-in-chief. He warned officers against […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":75736,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-76148","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDespite mixed messages, \u0141uka\u0161enka not really interested in clash with NATO | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka dismissed as "complete nonsense" speculations that Russia and Belarus are toying with plans to attack NATO countries. 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