{"id":74824,"date":"2024-03-22T18:40:18","date_gmt":"2024-03-22T15:40:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/74824\/"},"modified":"2024-03-22T18:41:11","modified_gmt":"2024-03-22T15:41:11","slug":"minsk-steers-clear-of-involvement-in-fighting-in-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/74824\/","title":{"rendered":"Minsk steers clear of involvement in fighting in Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Belarusians fighting alongside Ukrainian troops since 2022 are Kyiv\u2019s important tool of influence on Minsk.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n
\n\n Kastu\u015b Kalino\u016dski regiment fighters with commander Dzianis Prochara\u016d in the foreground\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (KKR press office)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion and Siberian Battalion fighters have repeatedly crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far, Kyiv has been cautious not to provoke Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka into sending his troops to Ukraine, but if Belarus steps into the fray, Ukraine may take a resolute action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian volunteers dream of liberation campaign<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On March 14, the Russian defense ministry published a report saying that about 13,400 foreigners have been fighting alongside Ukrainian forces since February 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kyiv has not disclosed the exact number of foreigners in its army, while the Washington Post<\/em> in February estimated their total number at about 20,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report does not specify the number of Belarusians fighting in Ukraine. Moscow apparently does not consider them foreigners and generally avoids the sensitive issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Commander Dzianis Prochara\u016d said earlier this month that the Kastu\u015b Kalino\u016dski Regiment (KKR) had nearly 5,000 fighters. The statement met with derisive comments in Belarusian state media and skepticism in independent media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western media said that hundreds of Belarusians are fighting alongside the Ukrainian forces, describing them as one of the largest foreign groups in the Ukrainian army.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk claims that no more than 300 Belarusians are fighting for Ukraine. State propaganda portrays the KKR as a small gang, but public statements by KGB chief Ivan Tertel and \u0141uka\u0161enka exposed Minsk\u2019s anxiety.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In October 2022, Tertel accused Ukraine of planning to send up to 300 armed militants to seize a district center in southern Belarus as a staging ground for an offensive on Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tertel might have deliberately exaggerated the threat. However, Belarusian fighters say that their ultimate goal is liberate Belarus from \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n
\n\n A KKR fighter with the call sign "Hip" says he plans to return to Belarus\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (KKR press office)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Many of \u0141uka\u0161enka’s opponents pin hopes on Ukraine and a subsequent liberation campaign by the KKR in Belarus. It is highly unlikely in the short term, however.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kyiv uses pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters primarily for operations in Russia. Their raids, while not of great military significance, have a considerable psychological and propaganda effect both in Ukraine and beyond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A similar campaign against Belarus would most likely be perceived positively in Ukraine, as retaliation for \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s assistance to Russia, but the Ukrainian command uses Belarusian fighters in bloodiest battles, including in the battle for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kyiv avoids cross-border attacks on Belarus, but can consider such operations in the future if Russia drags its ally deeper in the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka stays out of fighting<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In 2022, Belarus offered Russia its territory as a staging ground for a thrust on Kyiv. Russian forces also fired missiles at Ukraine from Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Later, Belarus offered Russia its military ranges and facilities for training mobilized reservists. \u0141uka\u0161enka has publicly admitted that his regime took part in what the Kremlin calls “special military operation.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian government is spreading blatant anti-Ukrainian propaganda and has been accused of involvement in the deportation of Ukrainian children from the Russian-occupied territories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why did not Ukraine send sabotage groups to Belarus or hit back at it at the start of the large-scale war?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Ukrainian army was short of long-range systems, while the role of Belarus diminished after the failed onslaught on Kyiv. Ukrainian commanders perceive \u0141uka\u0161enka a passive puppet of the Kremlin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fears of Ukraine’s Western partners that hostilities can spill over into the country bordering three NATO allies probably also had a strong impact on decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some analysts suggest that Minsk and Kyiv might have struck a behind-the-scenes deal, a sort of non-aggression pact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the lack of documentary proof, its existence cannot be ruled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In any case, it is obvious that both are satisfied and are trying to maintain the status quo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although Minsk complies with Moscow’s wishes, it does not take the initiative. There are no Belarusian troops in Ukraine, and Belarus has not been used for strikes against Ukraine since the fall of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From time to time Minsk reported captures of Ukrainian saboteurs, but those reports could not be independently verified.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Incursions by pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters into Russia\u2019s Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk provinces demonstrate Ukraine’s capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka threatened Ukraine with retaliation for possible military operations against Belarus. Kyiv has ignored propaganda buzz from Minsk and refrained from conducting any major cross-border operations against Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obviously, Ukraine does not want to push the impulsive Belarusian ruler into even closer cooperation with Moscow, so it avoids deploying Belarusian fighters in the immediate vicinity of the Belarusian border.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What will happen if the pact is broken?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the war against Ukraine, Belarus is Russia’s only full-fledged ally, and Belarusian resources, territory and army are largely under Moscow’s control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, \u0141uka\u0161enka is reluctant to plunge his country deeper into the war, which is unpopular among the Belarusians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian troops might suffer big losses, while Ukraine would try to take the fight to Belarus. That could undermine its regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n
\n\n \u0141uka\u0161enka posing with a grenade launcher presented to him during his visit to the Homiel artillery depot on November 17, 2023\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (BelTA)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Questions of war and peace in Ukraine are not within the competence of \u0141uka\u0161enka; they are decided in the Kremlin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian officials do not comment on raids by Russian volunteer units, and state propaganda gives these incidents little coverage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka usually plays up threats, emphasizing his army\u2019s ability and readiness to repel attacks. His ostentatious boasting disguises a lack of confidence and fear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the Russian army’s limited success and huge losses in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin displays his determination to continue the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia may make another attempt to attack Kyiv or invade western Ukraine from Belarus. Western intelligence analysts also fear that Russia might use Belarus for attacks on NATO countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That would prompt Ukraine to throw off the shackles and let Belarusian fighters to take matters into their own hands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For battle-hardened Belarusian fighters an operation on home soil would be a great incentive and opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is unclear what the Belarusian army is capable of. \u0141uka\u0161enka is not really eager to put it to the test.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

* * *<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A fragile peace between Belarus and Ukraine may not last if Russia drags Belarus deeper into the war. Kyiv may authorize Belarusian units to operate inside Belarus, which can be a serious stress test for the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Belarusians fighting alongside Ukrainian troops since 2022 are Kyiv\u2019s important tool of influence on Minsk. Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion and Siberian Battalion fighters have repeatedly crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia. So far, Kyiv has been cautious not to provoke Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka into sending his troops to Ukraine, but if […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":58298,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-74824","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMinsk steers clear of involvement in fighting in Ukraine | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Belarusians fighting alongside Ukrainian troops since 2022 are Kyiv\u2019s important tool of influence on Minsk. 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