{"id":69560,"date":"2024-02-26T11:07:49","date_gmt":"2024-02-26T08:07:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=longreads&p=69560"},"modified":"2024-02-26T12:09:23","modified_gmt":"2024-02-26T09:09:23","slug":"not-just-election-anxiety-lukasenkas-tirades-reflect-officialdom-worldview","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/69560\/","title":{"rendered":"Not just election anxiety: \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s tirades reflect officialdom worldview"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Allegations of planned provocations, terrorist attacks and coup attempts is a traditional element of all elections held under Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka. Although claims made by the Belarusian strongman on February 20 have little to do with reality, they are illustrative of his mindset.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n
\n\n Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka observing the Zapad-2021 maneuvers on September 12, 2021\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (\u0141uka\u0161enka's press office)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Plots, conspiracies, coups<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On February 20, \u0141uka\u0161enka, clad in the commander-in-chief uniform, held a meeting with senior security officials. Alaksandar Valfovi\u010d, state secretary of the Security Council, and Prosecutor General Andrej \u0160vied were seated next to him.

The Belarusian leader shared his fears of a possible third world war, urging Belarusians to prepare “both mentally and strategically.” He accused NATO of trying to drag Belarus into an armed conflict and undermine his regime.

He criticized Washington and Warsaw for allegedly preparing “a large-scale provocation against the civilian population of Poland, which would be blamed on Russia and Belarus.” In addition, \u0141uka\u0161enka outlined three scenarios allegedly contemplated by Belarusian pro-democracy forces and their Western partners.

The first scenario, “desirable” for his opponents, involves the opposition’s violent seizure of power before the 2025 presidential election. The baseline scenario, he said, is a coup during the presidential vote, with the February 20-25 parliamentary and local elections being a dress rehearsal.

If the first two efforts fail, the opposition has a “reserve” plan, he claimed, a “long-term game with the extensive use of soft power.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His anxiety proves that he is afraid of betrayal by top officials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

West not interested in Belarus’ destabilization<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

That was not the first time \u0141uka\u0161enka said that the “collective West” wanted to oust him and use Belarus as a launching pad for attacks on Russia, accusing the neighbors, Poland in the first place, of harboring plans to seize western Belarus.

The EU has always stressed that it would like to see Belarus as a democratic free state and a good neighbor. Western leaders regularly emphasize that the nation has a democratic future and will work through the \u0141uka\u0161enka legacy.

From their point of view, his regime is unlikely to collapse soon, so it will be hard to pull Belarus out of the Russian sphere of influence in the near future.

The United States and other democratic countries imposed sanctions on Belarus in response to Minsk’s outrageous acts, such as the forced landing of a Ryanair plane, the migration crisis at the EU borders and support for the Russian war against Ukraine. The sanctions have had a limited impact on Minsk, but the United States, the United Kingdom and the EU have no other tools of influence.

Increasingly dependent on the Kremlin, Belarusian dictatorship is acquiring totalitarian features. It is an unwelcome trend for Washington and Brussels, but still they find Belarus under \u0141uka\u0161enka familiar and largely predictable.

Instability may lead to the annexation of Belarus by Russia and, consequently, to the extensive use of its territory in the war against Ukraine and for hostile actions against NATO.

This explains why the “collective West,” while strongly criticizing Minsk for supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine and harsh political reprisals, has refrained from tightening economic sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also not pushing for the prosecution of \u0141uka\u0161enka. The International Criminal Court has not yet issued an arrest warrant for him despite Minsk’s suspected involvement in the deportation of Ukrainian children from the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine.

\u0141uka\u0161enka’s speculations about alleged plots by exiled opponents are ridiculous. The government is totally in control during the elections, and no incidents took place. Protest movements are out of steam, and the state systems function smoothly.

Meanwhile, the opposition, undermined by security services\u2019 operations, is beset by backbiting and warring camps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Political analyst Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski rightly noted that \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s influence on the West\u2019s political decisions concerning Belarus is greatly exaggerated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NATO’s plans to attack Russia or Poland’s desire to incorporate western Belarus are clearly nothing more than conspiracy theories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The alliance has repeatedly emphasized its support for Ukraine, but it has no intention of going to war with Russia. Polish politicians, both in the government and opposition, have never laid claims to Belarus\u2019 territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, it is not the collective West, but Minsk’s main ally, Russia, that is waging aggressive wars, rattling nuclear armaments and redrawing borders in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than pre-election anxiety<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analysts dismissed \u0141uka\u0161enka’s bellicose statements as pre-election anxiety and absurd fantasies. They say that he does not really believe what he says and uses alarmism to rally bureaucrats and apolitical citizens and intimidate opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n
\n\n Officers listening to \u0141uka\u0161enka on February 20\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (\u0141uka\u0161enka's press office)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From the early days of his political career, \u0141uka\u0161enka has established himself as a man nostalgic for the Soviet Union, a radical opponent of the West and a fan of conspiracy theories. His public statements are a mix of old Soviet and modern Russian propaganda, and he gives the impression of a man inclined to believe in the most absurd theories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analyzing the mood of Russian elites, Dmitry Muratov, Nobel Peace Prize laureate and editor-in-chief of Novaya Gazeta<\/em>, said in 2022 that the Russian leaders invented the pro-war and anti-Western propaganda and afterward came to believe it. “They fed themselves . . . their own propaganda, and now they vomit it all over the country.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Muratov’s analysis is applicable to Minsk, whose propaganda copies Russian narratives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although \u0141uka\u0161enka’s recent tirades are rightly seen in the context of the elections, it would be a mistake to reduce them to election-related anxiety. They reflect his worldview and also the mindset of his generals and form the ideological basis of Minsk’s domestic and foreign policy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Allegations of planned provocations, terrorist attacks and coup attempts is a traditional element of all elections held under Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka. Although claims made by the Belarusian strongman on February 20 have little to do with reality, they are illustrative of his mindset. Plots, conspiracies, coups On February 20, \u0141uka\u0161enka, clad in the commander-in-chief uniform, held […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":68970,"template":"","rubric":[30,24],"class_list":["post-69560","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-security","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNot just election anxiety: \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s tirades reflect officialdom worldview | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Allegations of planned provocations, terrorist attacks and coup attempts is a traditional element of all elections held under Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/69560\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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