{"id":68751,"date":"2024-02-21T20:38:41","date_gmt":"2024-02-21T17:38:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=longreads&p=68751"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenka-giving-in-to-fear-talking-of-plots-and-conspiracies","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68751\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka giving in to fear, talking of plots and conspiracies"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

On February 20, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka, wearing the commander in chief\u2019s uniform, spoke like a provincial agitprop lecturer, which he was in Soviet times. His speech was full of unsubstantiated allegations about insidious plans by the West and exiled opposition.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n
\n\n Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka at a meeting with security chiefs on February 20\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Press office of \u0141uka\u0161enka)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On the one hand, he tried to belittle as much as possible “the so-called leaders of the opposition who are begging and groveling in Western capitals.” On the other, he exaggerated the threat, portraying opponents as a demonic force ready to overthrow him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His speech was lavishly spiced with notes from secret services, which allegedly uncovered the enemy plots. \u0141uka\u0161enka particularly praised intelligence officers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anxiety about 2025 election<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A besieged fortress is dictators’ classic. Minsk is clearly ratcheting up tension as polls opened on February 20 for early voting in parliamentary and local elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, as his speeches suggest, the Belarusian ruler is primarily concerned about his 2025 presidential campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka outlined three scenarios that “our fugitives and their foreign supervisors from secret services” are allegedly working on. The first is a coup during the February 20-25 elections. The “baseline” scenario is a coup during next year’s presidential vote, with the current elections being just a rehearsal. And the \u201creserve\u201d scenario is a long-term game with an emphasis on soft power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, \u0141uka\u0161enka is getting nervous as 2025 draws closer, because the trauma of 2020 would not heal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, he unwittingly flatters his exiled opponents. In fact, they have failed to hold their alternative election to draw public attention away from what they call sham vote. All the opposition strategists could do was to call the official ballot \u201cno-choice elections” and ridicule it in every possible way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Our fugitives and their mentors in secret services are carrying out a targeted search and recruitment of people who could commit acts of terrorism and sabotage. There are enough facts,” he said, as usual presenting no hard evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obviously, a terrorist attack on a train station or a power plant in Belarus would not do opponents any good in terms of public support. Officials are so obsessed with sabotage that there is no guarantee they will not do it themselves and then lay the blame at the opponents\u2019 doorstep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New claim: opposition wants to snatch some Russian land<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pro-democracy leaders admit that at this point it would be unthinkable and hard to mobilize Belarusians for any kind of street action, let alone an uprising. But according to \u0141uka\u0161enka, Western politicians hold conclaves with opposition leaders to discuss nothing less than plans for the redivision of Europe, offering western Belarus to the Poles and looking to take some Russian land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka rolled out the theory on February 16 in an apparent attempt to pit Moscow against his political opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But his messages are contradictory. He portrays opposition leaders as worthless losers scavenging through garbage cans in Warsaw and Vilnius, pathetic and insignificant scams. And then he claims they hold conclaves with Western leaders to redivide Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka clearly exaggerates what the West is capable of. It is not even doing enough to help Ukraine, so it will not go out of its way to democratize Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western democracies strictly observe the principle of the inviolability of borders, enshrined in the Helsinki Act of 1975, and Russia is the only country that has occupied foreign territories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In response to the Russian aggression, NATO is fortifying its eastern flank, but \u0141uka\u0161enka presents the effort as evidence of the alliance’s expansion plans. In his speech, he scrupulously listed the NATO forces deployed west of Belarus and Russia: 32,000 personnel and more than 1,000 armored vehicles. However, this is peanuts compared to the Russian contingent in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insecurity<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There was another conflict of narratives. In \u0141uka\u0161enka’s view, the Westerners are conspiring with Belarusian opposition leaders to redivide Europe. But he also claimed that Warsaw had already given up on the Belarusian opposition, because they are losers. Instead, it is working to recruit senior Belarusian officials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“We are watching this process, we see them make inroads to leaders in Belarus, both in the military and civilian spheres. They will look for and establish new figures who will be loyal to the West and more effective here. All methods will be used, from banal bribery and blackmail to threats against your life and health and of your relatives and friends,” \u0141uka\u0161enka warned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It looks like he does not trust his generals. In fact, if there is anything to be afraid of, it is more likely a conspiracy from the East, now that \u0141uka\u0161enka has appointed admirers of the Russian world to top government positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do ordinary Belarusians believe in his conspiracy theories? Independent polls suggest that some people buy it. They say that \u0141uka\u0161enka saved Belarus from war. The Belarusian strongman will certainly use the message during his 2025 campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He excels in anti-Western rhetoric and in giving derogatory nicknames to his opponents. Gone are the days when he had to, as he once put it, play democracy with the West. Now all bridges have been burnt and he is playing the role he knows best. As he said, the masks are off.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On February 20, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka, wearing the commander in chief\u2019s uniform, spoke like a provincial agitprop lecturer, which he was in Soviet times. His speech was full of unsubstantiated allegations about insidious plans by the West and exiled opposition. On the one hand, he tried to belittle as much as possible “the so-called leaders of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":68464,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-68751","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka giving in to fear, talking of plots and conspiracies | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"On February 20, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka, wearing the commander in chief\u2019s uniform, spoke like a provincial agitprop lecturer, which he was in Soviet times.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68751\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u0141uka\u0161enka giving 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