{"id":68420,"date":"2024-02-20T17:31:09","date_gmt":"2024-02-20T14:31:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=longreads&p=68420"},"modified":"2024-02-22T17:07:24","modified_gmt":"2024-02-22T14:07:24","slug":"belarus-as-a-proxy-will-kremlin-use-lukasenkas-troops-to-attack-nato","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus as a proxy: will Kremlin use \u0141uka\u0161enka’s troops to attack NATO?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n\n \n
\n \n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Danish military intelligence officers fear that Russia may attack Baltic countries<\/strong> in 2024. Belarus’s heavy reliance on Russia and its geographic location make it an important element in Moscow’s political game. The Kremlin may draw its ally into a global military conflict.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n
\n (Vajar)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In 2024, European media examined scenarios of conflicts between Russia and NATO. Most analysts are pessimistic and consider an escalation as the base case scenario. A direct military clash would be inevitable if Russia attacks Poland or the Baltic states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Danish intelligence report<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The alarmist publications are mainly based on NATO countries’ military intelligence analyses. Fears have been fanned by statements from European defense chiefs and high-ranking military officers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some Western experts are skeptical. While some believe alarmist scenarios should be taken seriously, others emphasize Russia’s depleted military capabilities, accusing intelligence services, militaries, politicians and the media of sowing panic to whip up military aid for Ukraine and defense spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Colonel (ret.) Ralph Thiele, a German military analyst, criticized Intelligence Outlook 2023<\/a> released issued by the Danish military intelligence service, Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste (FE), in December. The Danish and other European media pounced on it in early February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Statements by Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen about a possible Russian attack on allies in the next couple of years sparked inordinate anxieties that engulfed media and social networks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kremlin might resort to provocations<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Danish analysis stands out among other similar publications because of its cautious assessments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FE experts have no doubt that the tension between Russia and NATO is of a long-term nature and that no d\u00e9tente can be expected under President Vladimir Putin. They do not doubt that Putin will stay in power after the upcoming presidential election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia will likely be willing to use military force against militarily inferior neighboring countries in the post-Soviet space, but it will to avoid triggering NATO\u2019s Article 5 on collective defense, the paper says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the near future Russia will focus on local military operations, the likelihood of which is assessed as highly probable. Russia\u2019s military activities will likely take on a more unpredictable nature with occasional threatening behavior against NATO vessels and aircraft in the Baltic Sea, troops concentration at the border and hybrid warfare, the report says.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What role would Belarus play in such a scenario and what could be the consequences for Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka’s regime?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus’ independence challenged<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The FE report mentions Belarus as a country that hosts Russian nuclear weapons since 2023 and in connection with the 2021 migration crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Danish experts consider a repetition of the 2021 migration crisis unlikely in the short term, given the already complex situation along the borders of Belarus because of the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus have only a limited impact on the security of the Baltic region, as Russia already has tactical nuclear weapons deployed in the Kaliningrad region, from where it can strike targets in large parts of Europe, the paper says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The deployment is mainly politically motivated aimed at increasing Belarus\u2019 dependence on Russia and at deterring the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Minsk is mentioned as an independent actor in the context of the migration crisis, the deployment is seen primarily as a Russian project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This assessment, which once again underscores the country’s dependence on Russia, which certainly hurts \u0141uka\u0161enka’s ambitions, and speculations about a possible escalation in the Baltic region definitely make him nervous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The FE’s assessments have been ignored by the Russian and Belarusian state media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus to play role in Moscow\u2019s operations<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

An escalation in the region will involve Belarus in one way or another. Russian aircraft can use its airfields for air incursions into Lithuania, Latvia or Poland, like it has already happened in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Russia decides to concentrate troops close to NATO’s borders, its army will be sent to Belarus. The assumption that Russia might try to threaten the alliance, but would prefer not to trigger a collective response, also increases the danger for Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

False-flag operations have long become Kremlin’s trademark, and have been extensively used in Ukraine since 2014. By acting from Belarus or using Belarusian armed forces, Moscow would be able to intimidate NATO while somewhat reducing the risk of direct confrontation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although Moscow’s possible military operations might seem like playing with fire, they may not provoke a full-fledged military conflict between Russia and NATO. Anyway, Belarus\u2019 involvement will certainly have consequences for Minsk. The West can respond by tightening sanctions and temporarily or permanently closing its borders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is not in \u0141uka\u0161enka’s interests, and he is likely to do his best to prevent it. However, his room for maneuver is very limited, and he might settle for the role of a pawn in Russia’s game.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Danish military intelligence officers fear that Russia may attack Baltic countries in 2024. Belarus’s heavy reliance on Russia and its geographic location make it an important element in Moscow’s political game. The Kremlin may draw its ally into a global military conflict. In 2024, European media examined scenarios of conflicts between Russia and NATO. Most […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":62463,"template":"","rubric":[30,22],"class_list":["post-68420","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-security","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBelarus as a proxy: will Kremlin use \u0141uka\u0161enka's troops to attack NATO? | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Danish military intelligence officers fear that Russia may attack Baltic countries in 2024. Belarus's heavy reliance on Russia and its geographic location\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Belarus as a proxy: will Kremlin use \u0141uka\u0161enka's troops to attack NATO? | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Danish military intelligence officers fear that Russia may attack Baltic countries in 2024. Belarus's heavy reliance on Russia and its geographic location\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-02-22T14:07:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ammunition_1128_vayar-mil-by_001.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1128\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"752\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Pozirk_online\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/\"},\"headline\":\"Belarus as a proxy: will Kremlin use \u0141uka\u0161enka’s troops to attack NATO?\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-02-20T14:31:09+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-02-22T14:07:24+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/\"},\"wordCount\":806,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ammunition_1128_vayar-mil-by_001.jpg\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/\",\"name\":\"Belarus as a proxy: will Kremlin use \u0141uka\u0161enka's troops to attack NATO? | Pozirk\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ammunition_1128_vayar-mil-by_001.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-02-20T14:31:09+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-02-22T14:07:24+00:00\",\"description\":\"Danish military intelligence officers fear that Russia may attack Baltic countries in 2024. Belarus's heavy reliance on Russia and its geographic location\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ammunition_1128_vayar-mil-by_001.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ammunition_1128_vayar-mil-by_001.jpg\",\"width\":1128,\"height\":752},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Belarus as a proxy: will Kremlin use \u0141uka\u0161enka’s troops to attack NATO?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\",\"name\":\"Pozirk\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Pozirk\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png\",\"width\":512,\"height\":512,\"caption\":\"Pozirk\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/Pozirk_online\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Belarus as a proxy: will Kremlin use \u0141uka\u0161enka's troops to attack NATO? | Pozirk","description":"Danish military intelligence officers fear that Russia may attack Baltic countries in 2024. Belarus's heavy reliance on Russia and its geographic location","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Belarus as a proxy: will Kremlin use \u0141uka\u0161enka's troops to attack NATO? | Pozirk","og_description":"Danish military intelligence officers fear that Russia may attack Baltic countries in 2024. Belarus's heavy reliance on Russia and its geographic location","og_url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/","og_site_name":"Pozirk","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/","article_modified_time":"2024-02-22T14:07:24+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1128,"height":752,"url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ammunition_1128_vayar-mil-by_001.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@Pozirk_online","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/"},"headline":"Belarus as a proxy: will Kremlin use \u0141uka\u0161enka’s troops to attack NATO?","datePublished":"2024-02-20T14:31:09+00:00","dateModified":"2024-02-22T14:07:24+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/"},"wordCount":806,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ammunition_1128_vayar-mil-by_001.jpg","inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/","name":"Belarus as a proxy: will Kremlin use \u0141uka\u0161enka's troops to attack NATO? | Pozirk","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ammunition_1128_vayar-mil-by_001.jpg","datePublished":"2024-02-20T14:31:09+00:00","dateModified":"2024-02-22T14:07:24+00:00","description":"Danish military intelligence officers fear that Russia may attack Baltic countries in 2024. Belarus's heavy reliance on Russia and its geographic location","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ammunition_1128_vayar-mil-by_001.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ammunition_1128_vayar-mil-by_001.jpg","width":1128,"height":752},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/68420\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Belarus as a proxy: will Kremlin use \u0141uka\u0161enka’s troops to attack NATO?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/","name":"Pozirk","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization","name":"Pozirk","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png","width":512,"height":512,"caption":"Pozirk"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/","https:\/\/x.com\/Pozirk_online"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/longreads\/68420","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/longreads"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/longreads"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62463"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68420"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"rubric","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rubric?post=68420"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}