{"id":6615,"date":"2023-10-19T15:15:52","date_gmt":"2023-10-19T12:15:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=longreads&p=6615"},"modified":"2023-10-19T15:30:29","modified_gmt":"2023-10-19T12:30:29","slug":"window-of-opportunity-strategy-in-belarus-implies-armed-resistance","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/6615\/","title":{"rendered":"Window-of-opportunity strategy in Belarus implies armed resistance"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Waiting for a window of opportunity \u2013 a combination of factors favorable for democratic change \u2013 is a popular strategy discussed by opponents of Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s government in Belarus.<\/em>

<\/strong>While I fully share their hopes and aspirations, I must admit that they are unrealistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eight factors<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The past three years have shown that crisis scenarios can persist, and therefore it is naive, irresponsible and futile to hope for a stroke of luck. Instead, we should all be prepared for new dramatic developments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We need to think soberly and carefully about possible crisis scenarios, to find the strength to accept the challenge and the determination to respond appropriately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Time will tell whether the Belarusians will live up to these hopes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the unpredictability of social and political processes, there are eight key factors that could determine the outcome for Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first two are possible sudden deaths of Vladimir Putin and \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus and Russia are personalist regimes. The death of one or both leaders will trigger political change in both countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Third, Ukraine’s victory over Russia may trigger political change even if Putin and \u0141uka\u0161enka remain physically and politically fit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fourth, Belarusians inside and outside the country need proper commitment and determination to mobilize when at the right moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fifth, democratic leaders must be ready to employ unconventional tactics, including armed resistance, and to take responsibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sixth, Belarusian law enforcers and authorities may put up resistance to democratic transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seventh, Russia may try to reverse the democratization of Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eighth, the West (the EU, UK, United States and other democratic countries) will be expected to support the country\u2019s transition to democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Three assumptions about Russia, law enforcers and officials<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Given Russia\u2019s influence, it is very unlikely that it can weaken to such an extent that it will no longer be able to keep Belarus in its orbit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even in an ideal case (e.g., Putin’s death and Ukraine’s victory), favorable conditions for democratization in Belarus will not come from Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Russian opposition is weak, while ultra-conservative forces enjoy popular support. There is no hope for a rapid democratic transition, or for a turmoil leading to its disintegration. Moscow is therefore likely to support \u0141uka\u0161enka or his successors. Moreover, it may establish an occupation regime in Belarus to offset its defeat in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second important assumption relates to the behavior of Belarusian political elite, law enforcers and officials in the event of turbulence in Russia or Belarus. No doubt, \u0141uka\u0161enka will mobilize all resources to keep himself in power. Even if he steps down, his security forces, officials and his supporters will do their best to hold on, possibly through the use of arms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All power in Belarus is concentrated in the hands of \u0141uka\u0161enka and his cronies, while most law-abiding citizens lacked the determination to fight in 2020, with daily protests losing steam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian support and the use of force will complement each other and create extremely unfavorable conditions for democratic transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the West\u2019s response, the experience of Ukraine shows that democratic countries can support only a courageous and determined liberation movement. Otherwise, the West limits its response to criticism and possibly sanctions. Moreover, some Western politicians may suggest using Belarus as a bargaining chip in negotiations on Ukraine or for cozying up to Russia to prevent an escalation or blunt a nuclear threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Three scenarios, with and without Ukraine<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Scenario 1: \u0141uka\u0161enka steps down, but Putin remains in control in Russia, regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka’s physical death would pose a great threat to Belarus’ sovereignty, and democratic transition. Moscow is likely to support \u0141uka\u0161enka’s successor or even establish an occupation regime in Belarus. Only desperate armed resistance can bring any hope of Western support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scenario 2: Ukraine fully or partially restores its territorial integrity, \u0141uka\u0161enka remains in power.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine’s victory will undermine Putin’s legitimacy, and Russia may experience political turbulence. Putin may be ousted by an “elite coup” or may decide to tighten the screws and mobilize for a new war with Ukraine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In either case, the chances of change in Belarus are slim. If Putin remains in power, he will continue to support \u0141uka\u0161enka, and if a successor emerges in Russia, \u0141uka\u0161enka can make a deal with him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The chances of a democratic leader coming to power in Russia are also slim, but if Putin dies and the war hawks are removed from power, Russia may reduce its support for \u0141uka\u0161enka. However, unless there is an uprising in Belarus at least as large as in 2020, unless citizens are willing to take up arms, and unless opposition leaders decide to take decisive action, \u0141uka\u0161enka will be able to hold on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scenario 3: \u0141uka\u0161enka and Putin step down, Ukraine wins.<\/strong> This is the most favorable scenario for democratic change in Belarus. However, even in this case law enforcers will try to hold on to power. The chances of success will again depend on the determination of democratic forces and their readiness for armed resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed scenarios can hardly materialize as described because they do not take into account rapidly changing circumstances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, if the above preconditions and assumptions are correct, all scenarios involve armed resistance to Belarusian and Russian security forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The success of Belarus\u2019 transition to democracy will depend on the determination and commitment of citizens, as well as on the ability of opposition leaders to take appropriate risks and assume responsibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, pro-democracy activists and Belarusians may go for a safer, peaceful uprising and longer democratic transition, hoping that Russia will weaken and eventually give up on Belarus. However, such a strategy would drive Belarus back into the old rut: the nation may miss its opportunity and discredit itself in the eyes of Western partners. Besides, another failure would undermine people’s faith that any change in Belarus is possible independent of Russia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Waiting for a window of opportunity \u2013 a combination of factors favorable for democratic change \u2013 is a popular strategy discussed by opponents of Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s government in Belarus. While I fully share their hopes and aspirations, I must admit that they are unrealistic. Eight factors The past three years have shown that crisis scenarios […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":5718,"template":"","rubric":[16,24],"class_list":["post-6615","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-politics","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWindow-of-opportunity strategy in Belarus implies armed resistance | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Waiting for a window of opportunity \u2013 a combination of factors favorable for democratic change \u2013 is a popular strategy discussed by opponents of Alaksandr\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/6615\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Window-of-opportunity strategy in 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