{"id":61969,"date":"2024-01-19T14:35:01","date_gmt":"2024-01-19T11:35:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=longreads&#038;p=61969"},"modified":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","slug":"economy-minsk-puts-pedal-to-metal-to-prove-doubters-wrong","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/61969\/","title":{"rendered":"Economy: Pedal to metal to prove doubters wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>By Ale\u015b Hudzija<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Dizzy with success claimed in 2023, officials hoping for similar economic performance this year. But not everyone is optimistic.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"block-image block-image-normal\">\n\n    <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1128\" height=\"752\" src=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/bel-economika_1128_ii.jpg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/bel-economika_1128_ii.jpg 1128w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/bel-economika_1128_ii-354x236.jpg 354w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/bel-economika_1128_ii-734x490.jpg 734w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/bel-economika_1128_ii-178x118.jpg 178w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/bel-economika_1128_ii-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1128px) 100vw, 1128px\" \/>\n    <figcaption>\n                    <div class=\"block-image__descr\">\n\n                Belarusian economy growth chart created by AI \n            <\/div>\n        \n            <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The government is expecting the economy to grow by 3.8 percent. The target is adjusted for inflation, which, according to officials, should not exceed 6 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last year, Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka&#8217;s cabinet reported an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) of 3.9%, but many observers doubt robust growth is possible this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meeting economic growth targets was a condition set by Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka for Prime Minister Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka to stay in office. No such condition has been set for this year, just yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The declared growth targets are wishful thinking, based on assessments by independent Belarusian and foreign experts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economic outlook<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Government &#8211; blue, ADB &#8211; purple, BEROC &#8211; yellow, IMF &#8211; orange, World Bank &#8211; red<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/16397713\/embed#?secret=B8y9hJheq0\" data-secret=\"B8y9hJheq0\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" height=\"575\" width=\"500\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>IMF<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After having dealt successfully with the challenges of the pandemic and the energy price shock triggered by Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, Europe faces the difficult task of restoring price stability while securing strong and green growth over the longer term, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the regional economic outlook published in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Growth in the region overall is expected to improve to 1.5 percent in 2024, and may accelerate to 2.1 percent in 2025. The IMF forecasts that the near-term outlook for the European economy will be shaped by opposing trends &#8211; a tightening of macroeconomic policies and a recovery in real incomes, accompanied by falling inflation and rising wages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the Belarusian economy, the IMF expects growth of 1.3 percent in 2024 and only 0.6 percent in 2025. Compared to the previous outlook of April 2023, the estimates for 2024 have been revised upward by 0.1 percent, but for 2025 they have been revised downward by 0.4 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The IMF forecasts that Belarus will grow slower than the region as a whole, much slower than most neighboring countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, in 2024 and 2025, Poland is expected to grow by 2.3 percent and 3.4 percent, Lithuania by 2.7 percent and 2.6 percent, and Latvia&#8217;s by 2.6 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>World Bank<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The World Bank&#8217;s economic outlook for Europe and Central Asia, released in October, highlights that the economy continues to be negatively impacted by Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine, tighter global financial conditions, sticky inflation and global economic fragmentation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The World Bank expects global growth in 2020-2024 to be at its weakest in three decades, reflecting a weak recovery in China and a sharp slowdown in the euro area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2024, the global economy is expected to grow by 2.1 percent, advanced economies, by 0.9 percent, and emerging markets and developing economies, by a more impressive 3.9 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for Belarus, the bank forecasts growth of 0.8 percent in 2024 and 0.7 percent in 2025. In January, the World Bank upgraded its 2025 forecast for Belarus to 0.8 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhile the economy redirects toward the East following the imposition of sanctions<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>and the recession of 2022, the economic prospects appear dim,\u201d it says. \u201cRecent macroeconomic stability masks deep-rooted inefficiencies and growing reliance on one partner.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A full recovery from the 2022 downturn is not expected until 2024-25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn the medium term, growth is anticipated to remain below potential, with domestic demand substantially curtailed due to diminished foreign exchange earnings and projected tighter monetary and fiscal policies,\u201d the bank says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Excepting sectors aligned with Russian exports (oil, fertilizers, and machinery), investments are projected to decelerate as the economy remains insulated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Inflation is forecasted to stabilize at 8.2 percent, with a gradual decline to 7.2 percent expected by 2025 if administrative measures are effectively maintained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Eurasian Development Bank<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Eurasian Development Bank, in its Macroeconomic Outlook 2024-2026 released on December 14, expects Belarus&#8217; growth to slow down to 2 percent in 2024, provided that production and logistics chains remain in place and the government continues its favorable economic policies. The bank expects high domestic demand to be a key factor contributing to a rise inflation from 5.2 percent in 2023 to 8 percent in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>EDB experts acknowledge that last year the Belarusian economy showed that it is capable of high adapting successfully to unfavorable circumstances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe country\u2019s GDP grew by&nbsp;3.8% YoY in&nbsp;the first ten months of&nbsp;2023, a&nbsp;recovery after a&nbsp;4.7% decline in&nbsp;2022, partially driven by&nbsp;building alternative supply chains, switching to&nbsp;new markets, and&nbsp;increasing demand in Russia,\u201d it said. \u201cAccommodative domestic economic policy has encouraged the expansion of&nbsp;output, in&nbsp;particular, through easing lending conditions and increasing budget expenditures.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, Belarus&#8217; economic growth is projected to slow in 2025-2026. \u201cThe slowdown in GDP growth in the medium term will help the economy to return to a balanced growth trajectory after overheating in 2023\u20132024.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Growth of&nbsp;Belarus\u2019s potential GDP will be capped at 1%\u20131.5% per year due to&nbsp;unfavorable demographic trends and&nbsp;restricted access to&nbsp;technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>BEROC<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Experts at BEROC, Belarus&#8217; leading economic think-tank, predict that the Belarusian economy will face a significant slowdown in 2024, accompanied by rising inflation. They forecast growth of 1.6 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BEROC expects a slowdown in domestic demand and consumer activity in 2024. According to the think-tank, the government will support investment through non-market tools and soft monetary policy, but the positive impact of these measures will be offset by labor shortages and an unfavorable business environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BEROC predicts that imports will become particularly important in the future, overshadowing domestic production. Belarusian exports will depend directly on the demand of the Russian military industry and the sustainability of supply of Belarusian goods via the Russian logistics infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Dependence on Russia and China<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Contrary to independent experts, the Belarusian government is overly optimistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Optimistic forecasts are typical of most governments, whether in democratic or non-democratic countries, in market or planned economies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecasts should take into account realistic possibilities and be based on reliable growth drivers. In the case of Belarus, there are doubts about both. Under the current conditions, the annual growth potential is realistically estimated at 1.5 percent on condition that the country is not exposed to major shocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Russian economy, increasingly dependent on China, is becoming the main pillar of the Belarusian economy. The Chinese economy is slowing down and accumulating imbalances, while Russia has been hit by Western sanctions. Despite their limited effect, the restrictions hurt the Russian economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taking into account all these factors, even the conservative low growth forecasts for Belarus are very unreliable. The Belarusian economy is fragile because it is heavily dependent on Russia and China.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Ale\u015b Hudzija Dizzy with success claimed in 2023, officials hoping for similar economic performance this year. But not everyone is optimistic. The government is expecting the economy to grow by 3.8 percent. The target is adjusted for inflation, which, according to officials, should not exceed 6 percent. Last year, Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka&#8217;s cabinet [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":61572,"template":"","rubric":[21,24],"class_list":["post-61969","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-economy","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Economy: Pedal to metal to prove doubters wrong | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Ale\u015b Hudzija Dizzy with success claimed in 2023, officials hoping for similar economic performance this year. But not everyone is optimistic. 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