{"id":57454,"date":"2023-12-26T10:47:46","date_gmt":"2023-12-26T07:47:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=longreads&p=57454"},"modified":"2023-12-26T10:47:47","modified_gmt":"2023-12-26T07:47:47","slug":"2023-sees-lukasenkas-dependence-on-kremlin-deepen","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/57454\/","title":{"rendered":"2023 sees \u0141uka\u0161enka’s dependence on Kremlin deepen"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This year, Belarusian-Russian relations followed the same trend that in 2022. In the midst of severe international turbulence, the need for survival pushed Minsk and Moscow closer together.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n
\n (Belarusian leader's press office)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka frequently meets with Putin<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n


<\/strong>Belarus and Russia had no choice but to strengthen their ties. War, isolation, and bitter confrontation with the West brought the two closer together.

After the Wagner mercenaries’ rebellion in June, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka said, “If Russia collapsed, we would be all there under the rubble . . . the mutiny could spill over to Belarus.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He actually admitted that he relies on Vladimir Putin for political survival and that he would be in trouble if power in the Kremlin changes.

In 2023 the two countries\u2019 government agencies forged stronger ties. \u0141uka\u0161enka and Putin were calling the shots.

On September 15, the Belarusian ruler paid his seventh visit to Russia this year. Five times he went there specially for talks with Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In May, he was in Moscow for a Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) summit and had a brief meeting with the Russian president. He also went to Moscow on May 9 to celebrate Victory Day.

On November 23, Putin flew to Minsk for a Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit and held a brief one-on-one meeting with \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 25-26, the Belarusian ruler is set to visit St. Petersburg to attend the summits of the EAEU and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

The Union State of Belarus and Russia is increasingly turning into a personal alliance of the two autocrats who developed a habit of holding negotiations in secret. Not only the people, but also the governments and parliaments do not know what they are discussing.

The governments have worked closely with regular meetings reported among officials of the energy, foreign and defense ministries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian governors have frequented Minsk and met with \u0141uka\u0161enka. More Russian universities have opened branches in Belarus.

Putin’s planned presidential campaign in Russia removes the last psychological obstacle for \u0141uka\u0161enka to run for a new term in 2025.

Belarusian propaganda promotes the “Russian world” ideology, fiercely suppressing any manifestations of Belarusian identity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian nuclear weapons<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Predictably, Minsk and Moscow have strengthened military ties. They are about to sign a treaty on mutual security guarantees and are finalizing a Union State security concept. The governments have ratified a bilateral agreement governing the operation of two joint military training centers, which are used to conceal Russian military presence in Belarus.

Russia has deployed some tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Moscow and Minsk have different ideas as to who will control the arsenal. Russia claims that it has full control, but Belarus possesses ten nuclear-capable jets and Iskander missile systems. Minsk and Moscow seem to have an arrangement to use nuclear munitions by consent of both leaders.

By deploying nuclear weapons in Belarus, Russia is pursuing its geopolitical goals and raising its stakes in the war against Ukraine. Meanwhile, \u0141uka\u0161enka is trying to use Belarus’ status as a nuclear power to increase his political weight and bargaining power in relations with the West, and to enhance the security of his regime. He argues that no one would dare to attack a nuclear-armed state.

At the same time, nuclear weapons is another tool of Russia’s military and political control over Belarus. Minsk’s military dependence on Moscow expanded at the expense of the country’s defense sovereignty. With that decision, \u0141uka\u0161enka tied his political and personal future to Putin, and Belarus has become more of the Kremlin\u2019s political tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kremlin involved in migration crisis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Over the year, Minsk closely coordinated its foreign policy with Moscow. For Belarus, Russia has long been the dominant partner, but is now almost the only one.

With Russia’s support, \u0141uka\u0161enka provoked spats with Western neighbors. Militarization and the presence of Russian troops has turned Belarus into a destabilizing factor in Eastern Europe and a major security threat.

The migration crisis remains in the spotlight. Since 2021, Minsk has been using migrants from the Middle East to blackmail Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. For this purpose, it set up special travel agencies that arranged one-way trips for migrants to Belarus with Belarusian visas.

Now migrants come to Belarus via Russia with Russian visas. The Kremlin is playing a bigger game, sending migrants to Finland.

Minsk has actively helped Moscow in its attempt to pit international organizations, such as the CIS, CSTO, Eurasian Economic Community and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, against the West. Belarus and Russia have tried, largely unsuccessfully, to organize an anti-western coalition of the Global South.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Integration ties Belarus to Russia<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

After Russia invaded Ukraine and the West imposed severe sanctions against Russia and Belarus, Minsk’s economic dependence on Moscow has deepened dramatically. Russia currently accounts for two-thirds of Belarus’ foreign trade.

To mitigate the sanctions, Belarus has redirected almost all of its exports to the Russian ports in the Leningrad and Murmansk provinces, and mainly uses Russian railroad to transport cargo, including potash fertilizers, to China.

The governments approved 28 union programs in November 2021. These roadmaps institutionally link Belarus to Russia, especially economically.

In late November, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin boasted that the programs were 90 percent complete.

One of these programs provides for the establishment of a supranational tax committee. Minsk approved it after Moscow agreed to supply oil at discounted prices. As a result, Belarus is looking to gain $420-550 million per year in additional revenue, based on oil price forecasts.

Tension\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka was not able to have a substantive conversation with Putin in September. He planned to meet him on October 13 during the CIS summit in Kyrgyzstan, but something went wrong. The Russian president met face-to-face with other leaders in Bishkek, but not with his Belarusian ally.

The Belarusian ruler only managed to talk to Putin in a rush as he escorted the Russian president to the airport after the November CSTO summit in Minsk.

It is unclear why he fell out with the Russian leader. He might be discontent with the way \u0141uka\u0161enka used the Wagner rebellion and his mediation in the crisis to improve his standing in Russian politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian leader cast himself as a strongman who saved Russia from a civil war. Against his backdrop, Putin might be perceived as a weak and confused old man.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Russian president clearly did not appreciate it. Russian television stations had to spin the story to cast Putin in a more favorable light. In the end, the Belarusian ruler has lost the away game.

In a separate incident, \u0141uka\u0161enka said that Russia\u2019s Rosatom had failed to meet the deadlines for  commissioning the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant and that Minsk was therefore expecting a refund. Russia rejected the claim, and the dispute remains unresolved.

Another point of contention seems to be Minsk\u2019s plan to build a port in the Leningrad province, with the two governments failing to resolve logistical issues for two years. Apparently, officials cannot agree on who should pay for the project.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This year, Belarusian-Russian relations followed the same trend that in 2022. In the midst of severe international turbulence, the need for survival pushed Minsk and Moscow closer together. \u0141uka\u0161enka frequently meets with Putin Belarus and Russia had no choice but to strengthen their ties. War, isolation, and bitter confrontation with the West brought the two […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":57120,"template":"","rubric":[14,22],"class_list":["post-57454","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-politics","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n2023 sees \u0141uka\u0161enka's dependence on Kremlin deepen | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This year, Belarusian-Russian relations followed the same trend that in 2022. 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