{"id":210493,"date":"2026-11-04T18:19:55","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T15:19:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/210493\/"},"modified":"2026-11-04T18:19:57","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T15:19:57","slug":"lukasenka-hopes-to-emerge-from-war-unscathed-and-secure-a-peaceful-old-age","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/210493\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka hopes to emerge from war unscathed and secure a peaceful old age"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Belarusian leader predicted a swift end to the Russian-Ukrainian war and portrayed himself as the winner in a standoff with the West as he addressed the Minsk International Conference on Eurasian Security on November 3.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Belarusian ruler's press office)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

War to end within months: \u201cNo forces, no resources\u201d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka said he expected the war to end within months, arguing that \u201cthere are no forces and no resources\u201d to continue it. He blamed Britain for prolonging the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis conflict could have ended within weeks in 2022. Belarus made great efforts to make that happen, but Kyiv\u2019s British friends demanded that it fight until the last Ukrainian, pumping weapons into our southern neighbor. A real opportunity to achieve a peaceful settlement and save thousands of lives was lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He strongly opposed Belarus\u2019 direct involvement in the war. In particular, he said that Russia\u2019s frontline currently stretches for up to 1,000 kilometers and would be 1,500 kilometers longer if Belarus were drawn into the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe understand, together with Russia, what will happen to us if we go to war. It would be difficult to defend this section. We understand that representatives of the West are already fighting on the other side,\u201d he said. \u201cWe understand that if we enter the war, the entire NATO bloc will start fighting us under this pretext. These are Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, adding another 2,000 kilometers along the border. A total of 3,500 kilometers. Who needs this? This is where our position on Ukraine comes from.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin shared his position and opposed Belarus\u2019 direct involvement in the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka also argued that the Belarusian people did not want to take part in the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cListen, that is why I am the president: to act based on the will and wishes of the Belarusian people,\u201d he said, adding that none of the countries represented at the security conference wanted to be drawn into the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He said he was ready to host peace talks at any venue in Minsk but was unwilling to mediate, arguing that Belarus was already involved in the conflict and had \u201cconsiderable, serious\u201d interests at stake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Appeals to the West to normalize relations: \u201cYou have lost\u201d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In his characteristically high-handed manner, \u0141uka\u0161enka appealed to the West to normalize relations while insisting that he had won the standoff that has dragged on since his disputed 2020 re-election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI told the Americans and many Europeans during negotiations: \u2018Guys, I am ready to turn the page, but you have lost. You must at least admit it to yourselves, if not publicly: you have lost. Let\u2019s normalize relations,\u2019\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not the first time he has made such remarks. \u0141uka\u0161enka rarely makes a public appearance without revisiting the events of six years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Repression to continue<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka seems to genuinely dream of peace. At home, he has almost everything \u201cunder control\u201d \u2014 the screws have been tightened so much that not even a mouse can slip through. But storms are raging outside, all along the country’s perimeter, from war-torn Russia and Ukraine to the EU, which remains reluctant to ease sanctions against Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whatever its outcome, the war means continued turbulence along Belarus\u2019 borders. It means drones entering Belarusian territory and frightening the population. It means airstrikes hitting Belarusian trucks, trains and even passenger buses, sometimes causing casualties. It means further sanctions and a constant need to explain away Belarus\u2019 status as an accomplice in aggression. It also means the risk of becoming even more deeply embroiled in the conflict and facing an even stronger response from Kyiv and Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The self-proclaimed Minsk peacemaker is thinking: if only all this could end soon. He hopes to emerge from the war unscathed and, it must be admitted, has a chance of doing so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If only he could somehow build bridges with the European Union and strike a deal on favorable terms \u2014 one that would allow him to trade political prisoners for sanctions relief and other benefits while securing an implicit mandate to continue repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka cannot do without repression today, and those advocating engagement with him realize this but have no idea what to do about it. He must keep the country in fear for several reasons. One is his fear of a repeat of the 2020 uprising, which, in the ruler’s view, happened precisely because ordinary people had been given too much freedom during the period of soft liberalization from 2015 to 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another is the security apparatus’s instinct to suppress political dissent, along with the bonuses, promotions and career opportunities that come with it. Then there is the question of the notorious succession, which must be planned whether he likes it or not: time waits for no one, and scientists have yet to invent an elixir of youth. He has come to realize that his earlier plan to transfer power to the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly carries risks for him and his family.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Repression will therefore continue and, by all appearances, will not end until he finally give up power, which he has held since 1994. When will agree to a transition of power remains unknown. What is clear is that he will keep reaching out to the United States and the European Union, urging them to accept him as he is because he is \u201ca victor.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peaceful old age<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

What he can offer is not genuine normalization but window dressing: a sort of \u201cAzerbaijani\u201d model for Belarus, in which the country looks more or less presentable from the outside while few people care what goes on inside. This summer, Azerbaijan sentenced seven journalists to prison terms ranging from seven and a half to nine years, yet Baku faced no individual sanctions in response, only angry statements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is the kind of \u201chumane\u201d treatment \u0141uka\u0161enka hopes to receive. He is even prepared to offer the West more: no public trials of dissidents, no harsh footage, no noise or fuss. A complete illusion of peace and prosperity in the heart of Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is already largely how things work in Belarus. Repression is kept out of sight of the media and human rights organizations. Court verdicts and brutally extorted \u201cconfessions\u201d are no longer made public. Yet some alarming news still reaches the press, such as the 19-year prison sentence handed to special forces officer Ja\u016dhien \u017daryka\u016d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Repression kept below the radar, migrants turned away at the EU’s borders, peaceful rhetoric \u2014 why should Brussels not be tempted by this false image of Belarus? \u0141uka\u0161enka probably wonders. After all, it is achievable: all it takes is an agreement on d\u00e9tente and a willingness to turn the page. In his view, it would benefit both sides, and even some of his exiled opponents think so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But most importantly, the war must end. And some time must pass for \u0141uka\u0161enka to shed the label of accomplice in military aggression that has somehow stuck to him. He could then present himself to Europe once again as an eccentric but essentially harmless neighbor \u2014 one with whom it is possible to trade, cooperate and coexist peacefully.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is when the good life would begin for everyone, he probably reckons. The good old days would return. It would be the perfect time to forget past grievances, hand over the reins to a carefully selected successor and enjoy a peaceful political old age.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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