{"id":199895,"date":"2026-08-13T18:39:53","date_gmt":"2026-08-13T15:39:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/199895\/"},"modified":"2026-08-13T18:39:56","modified_gmt":"2026-08-13T15:39:56","slug":"2020-opposition-leaders-step-back-as-they-await-belarus-next-political-opening","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/199895\/","title":{"rendered":"2020 opposition leaders step back as they await Belarus\u2019 next political opening"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Viktar Babaryka, a presidential hopeful who energized opposition supporters in 2020, revealed last week that exiled political forces do not need him. He sees little prospect for his political party, but is assembling a team for a project called Belarus Network.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Viktar Babaryka, Viktar Ta\u0142o\u010dka for sputnik.by, Pul Pervogo\/Pozirk\u2019s collage) <\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In December last year, after releasing Babaryka and his former campaign manager, Maryja Kale\u015bnikava, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka claimed that they would establish a separate opposition center in Germany. The Belarusian ruler was probably hoping that Babaryka and his associates would compete with \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s team for funding. That expectation, however, has not materialized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Babaryka: \u201cNobody needs me\u201d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Babaryka told Radyjo Svaboda<\/em> that he had analyzed what had happened during the six years since his arrest and realized that \u201cnobody needs me.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the 2020 presidential election, Babaryka galvanized voters with promises of economic and political change and was widely believed to be heading for victory. But the former banker was arrested before the start of his presidential campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cichano\u016dskaja drew on his pool of voters and went on to win 56 percent of the vote, according to Ho\u0142as, a parallel vote-tabulation initiative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Babaryka was in prison, Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s team established a network of political institutions in exile, including a cabinet and a proto-parliament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Babaryka has decided against taking a secondary role on her team. In the interview, he also made clear that he did not want to continue an effort launched by his associates to establish a political party in exile. Such a party would make little sense, he said, because membership would be tantamount to \u201csuicide\u201d for potential members in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He has set up a consulting firm and is creating Belarus Network, an online platform for Belarusian initiatives, people and resources, as an outlet for his public and political activism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cichano\u016dski gives up on politics<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski, another charismatic leader who emerged during the 2020 election campaign, plunged back into politics after his release from prison in June 2025 but failed to find a role for himself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He initially cast himself as a radical street leader, promising to deal a powerful blow to the regime \u201cin about three weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But his message failed to resonate with exiled activists and voters in Belarus, while he probably did not want to play a secondary role on his wife\u2019s team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He eventually moved to Los Angeles, where he studies English and prepares to enroll at a university. He is writing a book and publishing poetry and fairy tales on YouTube.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kale\u015bnikava ignores New Belarus conference<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Maryja Kale\u015bnikava, a musician who burst onto the political scene in 2020, was out of step with the opposition mainstream when she was released from prison in December. Her calls for European engagement with the authorities in Minsk drew severe criticism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She did not attend the New Belarus conference in Warsaw last week, saying she was busy with creative projects in Saltsburg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kale\u015bnikava continues to make political statements from time to time, but appears to be drifting away from politics and back toward music.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Babaryka\u2019s disillusionment<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Babaryka was pessimistic about the prospects for change in Belarus driven from outside the country when he spoke at the New Belarus conference in Warsaw last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He expressed doubt that people in Belarus would support exiled opposition leaders if an opportunity to do so arose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI have friends in Belarus who tell me they are not interested in what\u2019s happening in the pro-democracy community,\u201d Babaryka said on August 8. \u201cI\u2019m interested in restoring its influence.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has \u201cknown\u201d for more than 30 years what Belarusians want, and now the pro-democracy forces claim to have such knowledge, while the real sentiment of the Belarusian people needs to be studied, Babaryka said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He explained to Radyjo Svaboda<\/em> that exiled opponents of the regime have followed \u201cthe classical emigration path\u201d and that their organizations work for the exiles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He said he expected Belarus Network to study public sentiment and channel its efforts into advocating for the interests of Belarusians in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This would be a daunting task given the country\u2019s oppressive environment. And the idea is not new.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cTell the Truth!\u201d campaign, which was banned by the Belarusian government, declared a similar \u201cnon-political\u201d mission before 2020 but failed to make a significant difference, analyst Juryj Drakachrust said on a Euroradio <\/em>political show.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides, several online platforms have already been created to pool Belarusian initiatives, people and resources, including Novaja Bie\u0142aru\u015b, SVAE and Try S\u0142any, developed by Pavie\u0142 Liber. Drakachrust noted that these platforms had failed to make a big splash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Window of opportunity to open for whom?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A majority of experts interviewed in a recent survey said that a transfer of power in Belarus by 2040 is almost inevitable and is likely to begin as a managed, top-down process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Twenty-nine experts, mostly Belarusian and foreign political analysts, took part in the survey conducted by the Warsaw-based Center for New Ideas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ninety percent of respondents described a power transition by 2040 as \u201cpractically inevitable,\u201d while 72 percent said a \u201cmanaged transfer of power from above\u201d was the most probable starting point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors of the study \u2014 Ryhor Astapienia, D\u017amitryj Kruk and Anton Radnianko\u016d \u2014 emphasize that a \u201ccontrolled start\u201d does not guarantee control over the entire subsequent process. Even a stage-managed transfer of power could lead to a political crisis and trigger unexpected developments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A post-\u0141uka\u0161enka government grappling with a political crisis might turn to less radical politicians such as Babaryka for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The post-\u0141uka\u0161enka transition could take several electoral cycles. Babaryka and his associates may already be anticipating a scenario involving a gradual softening of authoritarianism. If so, he might need a political party at a later stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A rapid collapse of the system is also possible. It took the Soviet Union several years to collapse. And who could have expected such a profound political crisis in Belarus in 2020?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We can only speculate whether a window of opportunity will open wide or just a little.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some opposition figures who rose to prominence in 2020 may get a second chance. New leaders are also highly likely to emerge, just as Cichano\u016dski, Kale\u015bnikava and Babaryka did in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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