{"id":199405,"date":"2026-08-10T12:54:52","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T09:54:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/199405\/"},"modified":"2026-08-10T12:54:54","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T09:54:54","slug":"six-years-on-belarusian-opposition-looks-for-a-way-to-turn-crisis-into-change","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/199405\/","title":{"rendered":"Six years on, Belarusian opposition looks for a way to turn crisis into change"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians rose against election fraud in their country six years ago, but the regime narrowly survived. \u201cYes, we did not win then, but I cannot say that we lost, because 2020 launched processes that are impossible to cancel,\u201d opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja said at the New Belarus conference in Warsaw on August 8.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (New Belarus video, Belarusian ruler's website\/ Pozirk's collage)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Her main point was that the opposition must work toward creating a window of opportunity for democratic change and be ready to take advantage of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pressure seen as a way to kick-start dialogue<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Opposition politician Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka pointed out that the international community should maintain sanctions and initiate international criminal proceedings against Belarus\u2019 authoritarian leader to force the authorities to engage with the opposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He warned Europe against appeasing the Belarusian ruler by lifting sanctions. Restrictive measures played a key role in the release of political prisoners, argued Belarus\u2019 Nobel laureate Ale\u015b Bialacki and other speakers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This may be true, but it should be noted that the releases were secured by US diplomats who employed sanctions as a flexible tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, sanctions have failed to change the regimes in Iran and North Korea. Moreover, recent US air strikes on Iran only brought radical hardliners of the system to power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sanctions \u2013 a European tool<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Sanctions are a simple and logical strategy, but their role should not be overestimated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to point out that the opposition cannot impose or lift restrictive measures. It can only appeal to the European Union \u2013 Washington is no longer involved in sanctions policy \u2013 and advise on ways to make any measures effective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Western states adopt policies based on their national interests or those of their ruling parties. Their goals may differ from those of the Belarusian opposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Russia and Ukraine reach a peace settlement, the European Union and other Western players may lift their sanctions on Belarus without demanding political change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to distinguish between restrictive measures against Russia and Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sanctions may weaken Russia but are unlikely to cause it to lose its sovereignty, whereas sanctions on Belarus weaken its government, making it more dependent on Russia. \u0141uka\u0161enka cedes elements of sovereignty in return for Moscow\u2019s support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The possibility of Belarus losing its independence is quite realistic. In addition, an iron curtain separates Belarusians from the democratic world despite the EU\u2019s declarations of support for their pro-European aspirations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian opposition expects \u0141uka\u0161enka to make concessions at some point and start changing his authoritarian system. But based on his mentality, he may be more likely to cede his country to Russia than surrender to Europe and face an international tribunal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exiled opposition has limited reach in Belarus<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The opposition has an extensive network abroad but very little political influence in Belarus. This was the point raised by former opposition presidential hopeful Viktar Babaryka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He stressed that Belarusians inside the country are not particularly interested in what is happening in exiled opposition circles abroad and may not vote for the pro-democracy opposition when a window of opportunity opens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polish parallels may be irrelevant<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Opposition politicians often cite the example of the Polish Round Table talks of 1989, arguing that when Russia weakens, as the Soviet Union did, Belarus\u2019 opposition could force the authorities to engage in a peaceful transition of power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Soviet Union was weak in 1989, but it still had enough troops to invade Poland. It was simply that Mikhail Gorbachev was too hesitant to order an invasion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Would Russian President Vladimir Putin sit and watch Belarus drift toward democracy? Would his successor hesitate or be more radical?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Poland, it was the Solidarity trade union \u2013 a powerful internal player, not the West \u2013 that forced the authorities to engage with their opponents. The union had an extensive network and more than 10 million members, and could genuinely make a difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is unclear whether a foreign-based opposition can export a revolution to its home country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pavie\u0142 Sieviaryniec, a Christian Democratic politician, said that opposition teams of 20 to 30 activists should be on standby to move into large Belarusian cities when an opportunity arises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This might work if the regime collapses. Otherwise, it is unclear how dozens of opposition activists with expired or annulled passports, some of them wanted in their country as \u201cextremists\u201d and \u201cterrorists,\u201d would be allowed to cross the border.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retribution or carrots for the elite?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Exiled opponents are hoping that the regime will collapse. However, scholars are less optimistic. In a survey conducted by the Center for New Ideas, 72 percent of scholars said that a managed transition of power was the most likely scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if a window of opportunity opens, a more organized actor \u2013 a security or pro-Russian faction \u2013 may seize the initiative, while a significant role for pro-democracy forces is not guaranteed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The think tank advises the opposition to gradually gain political influence through communication with the Belarusian public and diaspora, as well as with groups within the system that may be looking for a less radical transition of power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, participants at the New Belarus conference talked more about sanctions and possible retribution after victory. But victory is not guaranteed, and a more evolutionary transformation involving compromises is more likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Center for New Ideas criticized the Belarusian opposition for failing to make a convincing offer to the elite. \u201cThe task of the EU is not to punish for the past, but to help make the future more predictable for those on whom transition will depend,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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