{"id":193446,"date":"2026-06-26T13:21:32","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T10:21:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/193446\/"},"modified":"2026-06-26T13:21:34","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T10:21:34","slug":"lukasenka-walks-tightrope-between-kyiv-and-moscow","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/193446\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka walks tightrope between Kyiv and Moscow"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka remains under Ukrainian pressure after complying with President Volodymyr Zelensky\u2019s demand to shut down drone control relay systems that facilitated Russian attacks on Ukraine earlier this year. Yesterday, the Ukrainian leader also demanded that Belarus stop building roads and storage facilities for ammunition, fuel and lubricants along its border with Ukraine.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Ukrainian and Belarusian leaders' websites, Olena Khudiakova\/ armyinform.com.ua \/ Pozirk's collage)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

According to Zelensky, \u201cRussian documents\u201d make it clear that Russia views the construction project as part of its war effort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe development of the aggression-oriented border infrastructure by Belarus must be stopped. It is the Belarusian side that must take steps toward de-escalation and peace.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In April, Zelensky had already said that Belarus was building roads to the Ukrainian border and constructing artillery positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No need to raise dust and shout<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka established the Southern Operational Command (SOC) of the Land Forces in May 2022, in addition to the Western and North Western Operational Commands. The roads, ammunition depots and firing positions may officially be intended for the SOC\u2019s needs. However, the Kremlin could take advantage of the infrastructure if it decides to launch a new offensive against Ukraine from Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kyiv must have discussed the issue with Minsk through intelligence and military communication channels before Zelensky decided to make it public.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka, meanwhile, has reiterated that he does not want to enter the war. While meeting Valentina Matviyenko, speaker of Russia\u2019s Federation Council, on June 25, he said that the Belarusian, Russian and Ukrainian peoples would eventually be together, adding that he had conveyed the same message to Zelensky\u2019s representatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTime will pass, we will fix our head and our relations,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Later the same day, he also made it clear to the visiting governor of Moscow Oblast that he did not want to fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He argued that a hypothetical Belarusian invasion force would be confronted by Ukrainian territorial defense troops and that neither side would want to open fire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cCome on, would we be shooting at these tractor drivers, milkmaids and workers who don\u2019t want to fight Belarusians? Neither do we want to fight Ukrainians,\u201d \u0141uka\u0161enka said in a video posted by Pul Pervogo<\/em>, a Telegram channel linked to his press office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat\u2019s why, guys, let\u2019s negotiate substantively, without raising dust and shouting. Let\u2019s go about it decently, understanding who Russia is and who we are.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pressure from Kyiv cannot be ignored<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It was relatively easy for the Belarusian ruler to switch off the relay systems, although he most likely did so only after discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It would be far more difficult to halt infrastructure construction and stop supplying fuel and other military-related goods to Russia. \u0141uka\u0161enka can hardly ignore Zelensky\u2019s warning now that Ukraine has achieved tremendous success in drone warfare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelensky\u2019s new demands are likely to anger Putin. Moreover, if they were fully met, Belarus would forgo substantial profits from Russian military orders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is often a fine line between civilian and military goods. For instance, chips manufactured by the Minsk-based Intehra\u0142 company can be used in both washing machines and radar control systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian ruler out of his comfort zone<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Vadzim Kaban\u010duk, a defense aide to opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja, said during a recent discussion that the Belarusian leadership has only a slim chance of changing sides in the war, as Finland did during World War II.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1944, Carl Gustaf Mannerheim, Finland\u2019s charismatic leader, abruptly changed his country\u2019s foreign policy by signing a peace agreement with the Soviet Union and entering the war against Nazi Germany, with which Helsinki had previously cooperated closely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In practice, however, such a change of sides is hardly feasible for \u0141uka\u0161enka now that he has firmly anchored himself in Russia\u2019s sphere of influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kyiv is now in the driving seat. Its psychological operation targeting \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2014the weakest link in the Minsk-Moscow alliance\u2014appears to have had an effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Ukraine should avoid pushing too hard. It may be able to weaken the Minsk-Moscow alliance, but it cannot break it. Excessive pressure could increase the Belarusian ruler\u2019s reliance on Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The forthcoming meeting between \u0141uka\u0161enka and Putin is likely to be their most difficult since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian ruler has been walking a fine line, supporting Russia\u2019s war machine without committing Belarus directly to the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has unsettled the wily \u0141uka\u0161enka, forcing him out of his comfort zone, and appears determined to maintain the pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is therefore likely to continue his balancing act, adjusting his position according to which threat\u2014from Moscow or Kyiv\u2014appears greater at any given moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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