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\n Budanov as an assassin<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\u0141uka\u0161enka portrayed Budanov, Ukraine\u2019s military intelligence chief at the time, as either a dissenter or a regicide within President Volodymyr Zelensky\u2019s camp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In August 2023, the Belarusian ruler said in an interview with a Russian propagandist that Budanov or another general would defeat Zelensky in a hypothetical presidential election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
One year later, in an interview with Rossiya 1<\/em>, he claimed that Budanov would assassinate Zelensky. \u201cYou [Zelensky] will be a traitor for your people,\u201d he said. \u201cIn the long run, it will be Kyrylo Budanov who will send someone to assassinate you as a traitor.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n His prediction that Budanov would sow discord in the Ukrainian leadership has not come true. The former military intelligence chief has instead become the second most senior official in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Possibly, \u0141uka\u0161enka was misled by the fact that Budanov had sought contacts with him. The military intelligence chief was looking for assurances of non-aggression from Minsk, not advice on how to unseat Zelensky. He was also interested in Minsk\u2019s assistance in arranging exchanges of prisoners of war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In December, Budanov was in charge of organizing a temporary shelter for more than 100 Belarusian political prisoners released by \u0141uka\u0161enka on December 13 as part of a deal with the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Zelensky appointed Budanov as head of his office on January 2. Twenty days later, the Ukrainian president criticized Europe at the World Economic Forum in Davos for not doing enough to help Belarusian protesters in 2020 overthrow \u0141uka\u0161enka. Three days later, speaking in Vilnius, he said that \u201c\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s white Spitz has more rights than the people of Belarus.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n He also met with opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja and invited her to visit Kyiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s rhetorical attempts to drive a wedge between Ukraine\u2019s civilian and military leaders are rooted in the Kremlin\u2019s false perception of public sentiment in the country. The Kremlin claims that Ukrainians are fed up with their leadership, portraying it as Nazi and a Western puppet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly urged the Ukrainian military to seize power, and \u0141uka\u0161enka appears to share the Kremlin\u2019s view of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0141uka\u0161enka cast himself as a spokesman for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in October 2024, when he said at the Second Minsk International Conference on Eurasian Security that the Ukrainian military wanted to end the \u201cbloodbath\u201d above all else. In reality, it was Russian officers \u2014 not Ukrainian generals \u2014 who staged a mutiny against Putin, most notably Evgeny Prigozhin\u2019s march on Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In April 2024, during a visit to Moscow, \u0141uka\u0161enka groomed General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, then commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, for the role of Zelensky\u2019s successor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He claimed that Zelensky\u2019s public approval in Ukraine had plunged to 34 percent, while Zaluzhnyi led with 35 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Belarusian leader also echoed Moscow\u2019s frequent claim that Zelensky\u2019s mandate would soon expire and that any agreements signed with him would therefore be illegitimate. Like the Kremlin, \u0141uka\u0161enka failed to mention Ukrainian legislation prohibiting elections during wartime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Moreover, he cited false approval ratings. At the time, Zelensky led opinion polls with more than 60 percent support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After his own stage-managed re-election on January 26 last year, \u0141uka\u0161enka elaborated on the possibility of Zaluzhnyi becoming president of Ukraine. \u201cI am watching it now: they are drumming it into them that Zelensky is a bad guy. He\u2019s got a rating of 13 percent or 10 percent. In an election he would not be elected. Who would be? Zaluzhnyi. What is the difference between Zaluzhnyi and Zelensky? I don\u2019t know, but I think there is no difference.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Zaluzhnyi and other Ukrainian generals appear firmly committed to defending their country from Russian occupiers and their allies in Minsk. \u0141uka\u0161enka seems to have grasped this, yet he continues to predict Ukraine\u2019s collapse under Russian strikes if Kyiv does not accept the Kremlin\u2019s conditions, including ceding the Donetsk region to Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cUkraine should stop today to conclude a peace accord in order not to lose the whole of Ukraine,\u201d he said in August 2024, noting that Russia was advancing, particularly near Pokrovsk. Five months later, Russia was still advancing but had not captured Pokrovsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One month later, he reiterated that Zelensky must accept Putin\u2019s ceasefire conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cVolodymyr Aleksandrovich [Zelensky] should calm down,\u201d he said. \u201cThere are good proposals on the table. We discussed them with President Putin. I won\u2019t speak about them \u2014 let the president [Putin] say it. Good proposals. Proposals on Ukraine, which were communicated to Donald Trump in Alaska and taken to Washington for consideration. These are very good proposals. If the Ukrainians reject these proposals, it will be the same as in the beginning of the special military operation [Russia\u2019s invasion]. It will be worse. They will lose Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n It should be recalled that a month after the start of what Moscow calls the \u201cspecial military operation,\u201d Russian troops retreated from northern Ukraine. Months later, Russia also stopped launching missiles at Ukraine from Belarusian territory. \u0141uka\u0161enka claimed he was unaware that Russian forces stationed in his country would go on to attack Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Twenty days before the invasion, he had predicted that it would take Russia three to four days to capture Ukraine, asserting that Ukrainians would not put up any resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\nZaluzhnyi as a successor<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Taking Kyiv in three days, version 2.0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Russian retreat<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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