{"id":160268,"date":"2025-10-16T13:17:01","date_gmt":"2025-10-16T10:17:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/160268\/"},"modified":"2025-10-16T13:17:04","modified_gmt":"2025-10-16T10:17:04","slug":"belarusian-officials-speak-of-detente-but-repression-continues","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/160268\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarusian officials speak of \u201cd\u00e9tente\u201d but repression continues"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

For the first time since 2020, as part of negotiations with Washington, Belarusian officials have publicly declared the need for de-escalation with the West. Their rhetoric runs counter to Russia\u2019s current policy of fueling tensions with Europe. Minsk\u2019s statements are not matched by any concrete actions.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n KGB chief Ivan Tertel\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Anton \u015aciepani\u0161\u010da\u016d\/sb.by)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Foreign ministry not involved<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On October 14, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka declared his readiness to strike \u201ca big deal\u201d with the United States during a meeting with the chiefs of the Committee for State Security (KGB) and the Security Council, as well as the prosecutor general. Also present were the prime minister and the head of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s Presidential Administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Soviet terms, this lineup effectively represents \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s version of a Politburo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notably, the discussion of Belarusian-US relations took place without Foreign Minister Maksim Ry\u017eanko\u016d, who was attending a non-aligned forum in Uganda. The foreign ministry was not represented at all, although \u0141uka\u0161enka could have invited a deputy minister.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ry\u017eanko\u016d was also absent from recent talks with US and Chinese delegations. His ministry is similarly sidelined in relations with Russia. His diplomatic service now deals mainly with countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Put simply, Belarusian diplomats are confined to providing propagandistic support for the officially declared pivot to the Global South. The once-influential ministry has been pushed aside \u2014 excluded from the country\u2019s real foreign policy decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

KGB in charge of relations with the West<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

KGB Chairman Ivan Tertel appears to be in charge of westward policy. After the meeting, he noted that Minsk maintains communication channels with the West, including with intelligence services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cUnderstanding between us is slowly improving. We discuss pressing issues and sometimes find common ground. Our mutual interest is a stable regional situation, a functioning economy, employment, a peaceful life and prospects for our citizens, the absence of conflict situations, and the overall easing of existing tensions,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, Belarus now conducts dialogue with the West primarily through intelligence channels \u2014 and the KGB chief is leading the process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is worth recalling how intelligence officers tend to view the world \u2014 after all, Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself a former KGB lieutenant colonel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Belarus, the KGB is responsible for suppressing the opposition and controlling the detention and release of political prisoners. Consequently, relations with the West are seen largely through the prism of political prisoner exchanges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Security chief\u2019s \u201cpeace-loving\u201d rhetoric<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The meeting marked a sharp change in Minsk\u2019s previously hostile rhetoric toward the West. Since 2020, all of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s meetings with security officials had focused on confrontation with the US and EU, particularly neighboring countries. They routinely discussed militarization, mobilization and the need to resist \u201cNATO aggression.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, for the first time in five years, Tertel emphasized the need for \u201ca general easing of tensions.\u201d And this appears to go beyond a possible grand bargain with the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The KGB chief \u2014 suddenly cast as a dove of peace \u2014 spoke of normalizing relations with Western countries, calling them \u201cpartners.\u201d Some of his key remarks included:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 \u201cWe are open to this for Western Europe. I think we\u2019ll soon hear good news on this track.\u201d
\u2022 \u201cThe meeting clarified Belarus\u2019 position both in the negotiation track with the American side and in relations with our main neighbors and partners, including France and Germany.\u201d
\u2022 \u201cWe are determined that our relations serve not confrontation but the benefit of our peoples \u2014 the development of our economies, social, family and other ties.\u201d
\u2022 \u201cOf course, we also discussed our relations with neighbors \u2014 Poland, traditionally, and the Baltic states.\u201d
\u2022 \u201cOur mutual interest is a stable regional situation, a functioning economy, employment, a peaceful life and prospects for our citizens, the absence of conflict situations.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such conciliatory language has not been heard from Belarusian officials \u2014 let alone the KGB chief \u2014 in years. What explains this sudden shift in tone?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seizing an opportunity<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The answer lies in current geopolitical dynamics: the US administration has shown interest in involving Minsk in talks on a settlement of the war in Ukraine. A window of opportunity has opened, but it may close quickly if Minsk fails to act.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions between Russia and the US are rising. Any thaw could be short-lived, and Minsk\u2019s potential role as an intermediary between Washington and Moscow might soon vanish. Hence the urgency \u2014 striking while the iron is hot \u2014 and the sudden rhetorical softening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet there are serious obstacles to any genuine detente between Minsk and the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus could try to make a deal with the US: release and deport political prisoners in exchange for a partial suspension of sanctions. But such a move would bring limited economic benefit unless the European Union followed suit, since Belarus\u2019 trade with the EU far exceeds its trade with the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tertel\u2019s comment that detente must also include the EU, not just the US, is therefore logical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the EU\u2019s position remains unchanged: releasing political prisoners and ending migrant attacks are merely preconditions for serious talks about lifting sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk, meanwhile, seems to be counting on US mediation. \u0141uka\u0161enka has repeatedly claimed that Europe is not a genuine political actor and merely follows Washington\u2019s lead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still at odds with the EU<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Expecting Washington to pressure its European allies into lifting sanctions on \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s behalf is unrealistic. Even open praise for Donald Trump would not change that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, EU policy toward Belarus depends largely on its neighbors \u2014 Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia \u2014 with whom tensions remain high. Poland\u2019s recent decision to close the border completely speaks volumes. There are no signs of improvement, even though repairing these relationships would be the logical starting point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A major source of conflict is Warsaw\u2019s and Vilnius\u2019s support for the Belarusian opposition. As the KGB intensifies efforts to target opponents abroad, this conflict is only likely to deepen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions are also growing with Ukraine. Kyiv was angered by \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s recent meeting with the Kremlin-appointed governor of occupied Kherson, Vladimir Saldo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has also announced plans to build another nuclear power plant to supply electricity to Russian-occupied \u2014 or, as he put it, \u201cliberated\u201d \u2014 Ukrainian territories. Meanwhile, a drone factory is being constructed in Belarus with Russian assistance. All this further undermines Minsk\u2019s international image.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka cannot thaw relations with the West without Moscow\u2019s consent, and the Kremlin opposes any westward drift by Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Russia\u2019s confrontation with the West intensifies \u2014 with Trump hinting at sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and Russian drones appearing in European skies \u2014 genuine detente between Belarus and the West seems increasingly improbable. The two trajectories are moving in opposite directions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Words not enough<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately, rhetoric alone will change nothing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Belarus truly seeks detente, it must at least stop orchestrating migrant attacks at the border \u2014 which have actually intensified since early October \u2014 end political repression and release political prisoners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The West would also expect it to stop supporting Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

None of this is happening. As the saying goes, don\u2019t mistake hope for illusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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