{"id":135241,"date":"2025-04-22T14:16:16","date_gmt":"2025-04-22T11:16:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/135241\/"},"modified":"2025-04-22T14:16:18","modified_gmt":"2025-04-22T11:16:18","slug":"lukasenkas-frustrated-hopes-for-engagement-with-west","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/135241\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s frustrated hopes for engagement with West"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Minsk appears to have abandoned its cautious attempts to re-engage with the West.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Hope for 2025 election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka pardoned 265 political prisoners in the latter half of 2024 and early 2025, possibly hoping to ease tensions with Western governments.
He also expected the European Union and the United States to accept the outcome of the January 2025 presidential election, which passed off peacefully but was dismissed by democratic countries as a sham.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


\u0141uka\u0161enka seemed hopeful that the West would move on from the disputed 2020 election\u2014marred by large-scale protests and allegations of vote-rigging\u2014and recognize him as the de facto ruler of Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overtures to Trump<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Donald Trump\u2019s victory in the 2024 US presidential election revived Minsk\u2019s hopes for rapprochement with the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new U.S. administration scaled back its global efforts to promote democracy and human rights, a shift that Minsk interpreted as a positive signal, prompting it to seek a reset in relations with Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk hoped the United States would lift sanctions on both Russia and Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In February, \u0141uka\u0161enka proposed Minsk as a potential venue for peace talks involving Russian President Vladimir Putin, US President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTell Trump that I am here, waiting for him with Putin and Zelensky. We\u2019ll have a calm discussion and come to an understanding\u2014if you want to negotiate,\u201d he told Mario Nawfal, a social media personality whose live audio chats are promoted by US businessman Elon Musk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka welcomed Washington\u2019s suspension of USAID operations and the freezing of funding for agencies that promote democracy, including Radio Free Europe\/Radio Liberty<\/em> (RFE\/RL<\/em>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He rewarded Trump\u2019s perceived openness by releasing two US citizens and RFE\/RL<\/em> journalist Andrej Kuznie\u010dyk from prison.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He hoped Trump would broker a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, triggering a significant shift in global politics. \u0141uka\u0161enka acknowledged that 2025 might be a difficult year for the Belarusian economy\u2014perhaps anticipating that any peace deal would be followed by a recession in both Russia and Belarus. He aimed to thaw relations with the West or, at the very least, gain access to Baltic ports for Belarusian exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disappointment<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

These hopes have not materialized. While Western governments noted the pardons, they have declined to engage further, insisting that Minsk first end political repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EU refused to recognize the outcome of the 2025 election, and prospects for a ceasefire in Ukraine remain uncertain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Washington has not offered to lift sanctions in exchange for the release of political prisoners. The US Department of State currently prioritizes broader geopolitical concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Escalation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Frustrated by the lack of Western response, Minsk has ceased making conciliatory gestures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has not pardoned a single political prisoner in the past three months. The government has not so far announced a general amnesty ahead of the 80th anniversary of the Nazi defeat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He has toned down his praise of Trump, advising him to \u201cthink before talking the talk\u201d and describing current US policy as \u201cmadness.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Belarus has intensified military exercises and increased the flow of irregular migrants across its borders into neighboring EU countries. Furthermore, plans to bring up to 150,000 Pakistani workers into Belarus have likely alarmed neighboring states concerned about irregular migration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk and Moscow have ramped up anti-Western rhetoric. During a visit to Minsk on April 15, Russian Foreign Intelligence Service chief Sergey Naryshkin warned that Poland and the Baltic states would be the first to suffer in the event of \u201cpossible NATO aggression\u201d against Belarus and Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The two allies are preparing for Zapad 2025, large-scale military exercises scheduled to take place in Belarus this September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While relations between Belarus and the West remain frozen, Russia continues to subsidize its ally, ensuring Minsk remains within its sphere of influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A decrease in tensions seems unlikely unless Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire\u2014or the United States unexpectedly shifts its focus to Belarus and upgrades diplomatic ties by sending an ambassador to Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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