{"id":130623,"date":"2025-03-19T12:12:10","date_gmt":"2025-03-19T09:12:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/130623\/"},"modified":"2025-03-19T12:12:12","modified_gmt":"2025-03-19T09:12:12","slug":"lukasenkas-political-legacy-in-putins-shadow","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/130623\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s political legacy in Putin\u2019s shadow"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

During his visit to Moscow last week, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka sought to emphasize his strong ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin and demonstrate his understanding of the Kremlin\u2019s plans. However, Moscow views Belarus merely as a tool in its imperial strategy.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Strong ties, fragile alliance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka traveled to Moscow last week on his first international trip since the January election, underscoring that Russia remains his top foreign policy priority. Despite not yet being sworn in, his state visit lasted three days and included high-level negotiations and a prominent news conference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also addressed the Federation Council for the first time, a special honor. Back in 1999, \u0141uka\u0161enka had addressed the State Duma, which was then dominated by pro-communist opposition critical of reforms and closer ties with the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Campaigning against a weakened Russian President Boris Yeltsin, \u0141uka\u0161enka aimed for the Kremlin\u2019s throne, advocating for the unification of his country with Russia and aligning himself with anti-reform forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The two appearances share a common thread in his desire to win over the Russian elite. Today, the Belarusian-Russian alliance is a deal between dictators, resembling a dynastic union of monarchs, which makes it inherently unstable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka presents the Union State as a union of peoples, hoping to be remembered as its architect. During his visit, he repeatedly emphasized that Belarus\u2019 presidential election was proof of public support for his policy of integration with Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia\u2019s protectorate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka does his best to spin the disadvantages of Belarusian-Russian integration as advantages. Belarus\u2019 dependence on Russia restricts its foreign policy but also strengthens \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s own position, aligning him with the Kremlin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He spoke about \u201cRussia and us,\u201d presenting Belarus and Russia as a unified entity. Constantly using pronouns like \u201cwe,\u201d \u201cus,\u201d and \u201cour,\u201d he said: \u201cThey will never catch up with us\u2026 we know what we need\u2026 we do not need to rush.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a sense, \u0141uka\u0161enka took on the role of Putin\u2019s spokesman, positioning himself as a member of Russia\u2019s symbolic \u201cpolitburo.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His visit to Moscow was strategically timed to coincide with US-Russian talks on a ceasefire in Ukraine. US special envoy Steven Witkoff arrived in Moscow two hours after \u0141uka\u0161enka, and the latter made the most of the opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka portrayed himself as a significant geopolitical player, discussing war and peace. Meanwhile, Belarus’ dependence on Russia continues to grow. Although Moscow deferred Belarus\u2019 debt payments, unequal oil prices are hurting the profitability of Belarusian refineries, something \u0141uka\u0161enka complained about at the Federation Council.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The West, meanwhile, does not consider Belarus an independent state. As a result, the future of Belarus, especially after the conclusion of Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine, remains uncertain. Some observers suggest that if Moscow fails to achieve its goals in Ukraine, it could absorb Belarus as a consolation prize. However, it is more likely that Russia is content with the current status quo\u2014Belarus as its protectorate, a model for other countries, including Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin himself outlined this approach during talks, stating that Belarusian-Russian integration \u201ccould serve as an example for other states in economics, security and international cooperation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin\u2019s confidant<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka and Putin hold differing views on the Belarusian-Russian alliance, its power balance, and Belarus\u2019 sovereignty. \u0141uka\u0161enka seeks to demonstrate his knowledge of the Kremlin\u2019s plans, takes pride in it, and often boasts about it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an interview with the Russia-1<\/em> TV channel, he claimed that Russia does not plan to go to war with Europe. \u201cIf they were planning, I would definitely know,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, he also claimed he was unaware of Russia\u2019s plans to attack Ukraine in 2022. In a recent interview with US influencer Mario Nawfal, he stated: \u201cI am often asked if I knew the war would start in February three years ago. No, I did not know.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similarly, in an interview with Olga Skabeeva of Russia-1<\/em>, \u0141uka\u0161enka insisted that he had no knowledge of Russia\u2019s plans for Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey [the Ukrainians] accused me of being the aggressor, so and so, [referring to] Russians entering from Belarus. First off, I honestly admitted that the Russian General Staff did not inform me about it. After the exercise, the Russians were withdrawing their troops. They found the path to Vladivostok or across the Urals to be shorter through Kyiv. Well, then ask the generals who were withdrawing troops why they thought that path was shorter.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to him, Russian generals used Belarus to launch the attack on Ukraine without informing \u0141uka\u0161enka, who considers himself the ruler of his state. This raises questions about his awareness and sovereignty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin indicates \u0141uka\u0161enka has no role in peace talks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

During the news conference following the negotiations between \u0141uka\u0161enka and Putin on March 13, a Belarusian state television journalist asked Putin whether Russia was willing to consider Belarus\u2019 interests in peace talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, the question had been prepared by Minsk in advance, based on \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s earlier statements. For example, on October 17, he claimed he had always insisted on Belarus\u2019 involvement in negotiations on Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhy? Because it\u2019s our problem. I don\u2019t want decisions to be made\u2014our decisions\u2014without us. . . . They could make decisions to force us to give away half of the country tomorrow,\u201d he argued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the beginning of the war, \u0141uka\u0161enka has suggested that peace talks should be held in Belarus, positioning himself as a potential mediator. In the interview with Nawfal, he even invited US President Donald Trump, Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk had expected Putin to confirm the need for Belarus\u2019 involvement in peace negotiations on Ukraine in response to that question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the Russian leader said he did not understand the question, adding that Russia always considers the interests of its closest ally in international discussions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embarrassed by Putin\u2019s reply, \u0141uka\u0161enka backpedaled, stating that he was not eager to take part in the talks. This exchange clearly demonstrated that Russia views Belarus merely as a tool in its imperial strategy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

During his visit to Moscow last week, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka sought to emphasize his strong ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin and demonstrate his understanding of the Kremlin\u2019s plans. However, Moscow views Belarus merely as a tool in its imperial strategy. Strong ties, fragile alliance \u0141uka\u0161enka traveled to Moscow last week on his first international trip […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":97938,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-130623","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s political legacy in Putin\u2019s shadow | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"During his visit to Moscow last week, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka sought to emphasize his strong ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin and demonstrate his\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/130623\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" 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