{"id":129681,"date":"2025-03-12T12:38:29","date_gmt":"2025-03-12T09:38:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/129681\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenkas-scripted-cabinet-shake-up-power-remains-intact","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/129681\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s scripted cabinet shake-up: power remains intact"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

On March 10, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka appointed Alaksandar Tur\u010dyn as prime minister, ending the uncertainty surrounding the position. \u201cAs promised, a new generation is now in charge of the country,\u201d the Belarusian leader said.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Becerra Govea \/ pexels.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Illusion of change<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tur\u010dyn, 49, is one of few officials promoted to the cabinet following January\u2019s stage-managed presidential election. Others are U\u0142adzimir Karanik, a former health minister and head of the Hrodna Regional Executive Committee, and Kiry\u0142 Zaleski, 45, who took over as communications minister.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the authoritarian system will remain unchanged as long as \u0141uka\u0161enka is in charge. In fact, he will likely attempt to preserve it even after his departure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The aging dictatorship has become predictable and monotonous, despite \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s efforts to create the illusion of rejuvenation. He turned the appointment of the new cabinet into a spectacle, complete with multiple acts. The ministers resigned and were reinstated in their positions, but there was uncertainty about Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka, who deserves credit for maintaining economic growth amid sanctions and keeping inflation under control. His loyalty to \u0141uka\u0161enka was unquestionable: the leader had appointed him before the tumultuous 2020 presidential election, anticipating challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nearly five years as prime minister is a long tenure by Belarusian standards. \u201cYou can\u2019t sit on this hot frying pan for long,\u201d \u0141uka\u0161enka commented on March 10, explaining his decision to replace the prime minister.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tur\u010dyn: balance of loyalty and economic flexibility<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The new prime minister has declared that he does not plan to alter economic policy, describing his approach as \u201cevolution without revolutions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (File photo: Minskaja pra\u016dda)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

He certainly knows how to please \u0141uka\u0161enka, who is cautious about reforms and revolutions. However, Tur\u010dyn has a reputation as a market-oriented liberal. From 2018 to 2019, he served as first deputy prime minister under liberal Prime Minister Siarhiej Rumas. Perhaps \u0141uka\u0161enka will allow him to pursue cautious liberalization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2020, \u0141uka\u0161enka cracked down on IT professionals and business owners who strongly supported protests against his rule, driving companies out of the country and harming the IT sector\u2019s contribution to GDP. Now that the opposition has been suppressed, \u0141uka\u0161enka may take a calculated risk and give private businesses more freedom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Independent economists have long warned that price controls and government interference in the economy create imbalances and fuel inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stability at risk<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has always interfered in the economy throughout his 30-year rule. He accepted the resignation of Pavie\u0142 Ka\u0142aur, who had headed the National Bank of Belarus for ten years and was credited with keeping the government\u2019s financial appetite in check, reducing inflation to single digits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He was replaced by Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka, who has no experience as a banker but is more obedient to the Belarusian ruler. \u0141uka\u0161enka explained that Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka had advocated for more active involvement of the central bank and the banking system in the economy. \u201cI believe they will find common ground with Alaksandar Henrychavi\u010d [Tur\u010dyn] to finally put some economic issues, especially financial ones, in the proper perspective,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this appointment, it is unlikely that Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka\u2019s perspective will have much weight\u2014\u0141uka\u0161enka reshuffles officials as he sees fit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is particularly concerning is that \u0141uka\u0161enka wants the cabinet and the central bank to \u201cfind common ground\u201d in financing the economy. This appointment may signal the end of the central bank\u2019s independence in maintaining macroeconomic stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has repeatedly attempted to spur economic growth through state lending expansion. On March 3, he told cabinet ministers that the National Bank of Belarus \u201cshould function as part of the government.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tur\u010dyn\u2019s presidential qualities<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka told Tur\u010dyn that he has \u201cpresidential inclinations, like I do. You can twist the wheel sharply.\u201d However, he likely does not consider him as a potential successor. This was not the first time \u0141uka\u0161enka has mentioned officials near him as possible successors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In March 2021, \u0141uka\u0161enka described Karanik, the then head of the Hrodna region, and his assistant, former Interior Minister Juryj Karaje\u016d, as \u201cstrong candidates\u201d for the presidency. This remark was clearly offhand: Karanik lacks rhetorical skills and charisma, while Karaje\u016d, born in the Caucasus, is ineligible to run for president in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, \u0141uka\u0161enka is not yet ready to become a \u201clame duck\u201d\u2014under a personalized regime, this is too risky. As soon as a new leader emerges, bureaucrats may shift their loyalty, weakening \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts predict a slowdown in economic growth, pointing to Russia\u2019s grim outlook. If the economy falters, \u0141uka\u0161enka may replace Tur\u010dyn, claiming that he did not meet expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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