{"id":127118,"date":"2025-02-20T15:34:28","date_gmt":"2025-02-20T12:34:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/127118\/"},"modified":"2025-02-20T15:34:29","modified_gmt":"2025-02-20T12:34:29","slug":"lukasenka-still-undecided-on-power-transition","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/127118\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka still undecided on power transition"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka is not only focused on his own future but also on safeguarding his political legacy. In a system built around his leadership, everything hinges on him, and he faces the dilemma of whether to rely on his loyal cronies or on strong institutions.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (freepik.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOverwhelming support\u201d in \u201cquiet and peaceful\u201d election<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The 2025 presidential election was a smooth, stage-managed ritual orchestrated by the authorities. No protests took place in Belarus, but the West refused to recognize the results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On February 4, during a meeting with his campaign staff, \u0141uka\u0161enka claimed “overwhelming support” that “has never happened in history.” “Consider, more than 90 percent of the population strongly supports us. . . . They [the opposition] are still stunned, left wondering how this could have happened.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On February 10, he told Belarus’ religious leaders that the election had taken place “quietly and peacefully,” just as he had imagined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the rhetoric of overwhelming support is nothing more than a misinformation campaign. \u0141uka\u0161enka is well aware that public support for his policies remains low. If he truly believed in high public support, he would have ended the reprisals and released political prisoners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His \u201cquiet and peaceful\u201d election was made possible by his relentless crackdown on dissent. About half a million Belarusians were forced to leave the country, and tens of thousands were imprisoned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Succession plans<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Now that the election is over, \u0141uka\u0161enka cannot enjoy unchallenged rule without concern for the future. Some observers speculate that he will transfer power within the next five years and are already discussing potential successors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka himself speaks of a \u201cgeneration change,\u201d but his statements about an upcoming transformation are met with skepticism. He has repeatedly claimed that he is \u201cfed up with power\u201d and will not cling to his position, yet he refuses to step down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicting \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s next steps is difficult, and he may not have a clear plan himself. His actions seem chaotic, and his decisions are often situational. He is not only concerned about his own future but also about preserving his political legacy. In a personalized regime, everything revolves around the ruler, making succession a major challenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The opposition has been suppressed, but that is not enough. \u0141uka\u0161enka continues to search for ways to preserve the system after his departure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Successor or institutions? \u0141uka\u0161enka weighs the future<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The dilemma is clear: What can ensure continuity\u2014 a successor or institutions?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Russia, the focus has traditionally been on personalities. President Boris Yeltsin did not amend the constitution but instead picked a successor, Vladimir Putin, hoping he would protect his circle. Yeltsin did not live long enough to see Putin gradually roll back the freedoms granted by his predecessor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After two terms, Putin also chose a successor in Dmitry Medvedev, a temporary placeholder. This operation was successful, and it appeared to be a ready-made scenario for the Belarusian ruler to follow. However, \u0141uka\u0161enka decided against this approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More recently, he was discouraged by the bumpy succession in Kazakhstan. Although President Nursultan Nazarbayev picked a successor in Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev and set up institutional guarantees for his influence, things went awry. The successor took drastic steps to weaken Nazarbayev\u2019s influence, and the institutions failed to help him retain control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institutional control<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka does not appear to trust his inner circle, so he has opted for institutional guarantees. After taking charge of the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly (UNS), \u0141uka\u0161enka hopes to control a future president. The UNS was conceived as a separate branch of power to protect him once he steps down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, \u0141uka\u0161enka has changed his mind about retirement and taken control of the UNS, effectively holding two of the country\u2019s most important positions. Since the UNS is largely useless as long as he remains in office, he has decided to keep it on standby while searching for other mechanisms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A new idea, which he discussed at a meeting with his campaign staff, is to create a commission of top officials to select members of a new cabinet. Officials under consideration for the commission include Natalla Ka\u010danava, speaker of the Council of the Republic; Ihar Sierhijenka, speaker of the House of Representatives; and Prosecutor General Andrej \u0160vied.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka explained that he would like to hear the opinions of others when making decisions, rather than act alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not a shift toward collective leadership, but a tactic to shift responsibility for any potential economic failures onto his inner circle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During his meeting with the religious leaders, \u0141uka\u0161enka also suggested establishing religious centers and the country\u2019s \u201cmost important temple,\u201d a sanctuary where people would come not only from Belarus but from other countries as well. Perhaps \u0141uka\u0161enka is attempting to create a type of hierarchy similar to his \u201cvertical\u201d executive government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In another move, the Belarusian leader plans to empower district executive committee chairpersons to approve the CEOs of private companies and local security chiefs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These changes are unlikely to make a significant difference, but \u0141uka\u0161enka seems compelled to take action as he attempts to tackle issues from multiple angles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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