{"id":125292,"date":"2025-02-07T11:49:11","date_gmt":"2025-02-07T08:49:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/125292\/"},"modified":"2025-02-07T11:49:12","modified_gmt":"2025-02-07T08:49:12","slug":"belarus-seeks-dialogue-with-west-amid-stalemate","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/125292\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus seeks dialogue with West amid stalemate"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Minsk has claimed its readiness to improve ties with the West, although it has yet to take any meaningful steps to reduce tensions. On January 17, Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka expressed confidence that Western countries would eventually engage with Belarus. Similar statements were made by Foreign Minister Maksim Ry\u017eanko\u016d and Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Myriams-Fotos \/ pixabay.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Belarus pushes for dialogue amid Western criticism<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian officials assert their interest in normalizing relations but emphasize that the country has adapted to sanctions and can survive without the West. Minsk stresses that progress depends on decisions made by Washington, London and Brussels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Belarus largely defied international criticism of the controversial January presidential election, it has taken cautious steps to create conditions for future negotiations, such as pardoning dozens of political prisoners and releasing videos of opposition leaders Viktar Babaryka and Maryja Kale\u015bnikava after extended periods of incommunicado detention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the lack of an enthusiastic response to these pardons from US President Joe Biden\u2019s administration and Brussels\u2014coupled with harsh criticism of the election from the EU\u2014has clearly disappointed the Belarusian leader. On January 26, he lashed out at the West during a news conference in Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Parliament and the European Commission dismissed the election as a sham, while Canada and the UK imposed additional sanctions on three companies and six individuals, including the chief election official, Ihar Karpienka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Biden administration had condemned the election in advance, while the new US administration welcomed the release of American citizen Anastassia Nuhfer from a Belarusian prison on election day, without commenting on the election itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Europe, the only positive news for Minsk came from Hungary\u2019s veto of a joint EU statement condemning the poll. However, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico refrained from congratulating \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western interest diminishes amid Kremlin alignment<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2020, the West strongly denounced election fraud and police violence in Belarus. In contrast, the response in 2025 was less vocal. Russia, which continues its war against Ukraine, remains a staunch supporter of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s regime, and Belarus\u2019 dependence on Russia has grown dramatically in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sanctions imposed by the US, EU and UK have not met the expectations of Belarus\u2019 pro-democracy forces, nor have they been effective in stifling the regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian exiled opposition has lost ground, and Western politicians increasingly view \u0141uka\u0161enka as the Kremlin\u2019s puppet, questioning Belarus\u2019 true independence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With Donald Trump\u2019s tenure, Europe faded into the background of US foreign policy, and supporting democracy became less of a priority. In the EU, right-wing populist and far-right movements have strengthened. The recent election highlighted a low level of interest in Belarus, while \u0141uka\u0161enka successfully consolidated his regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The long-time Belarusian ruler, however, may be dissatisfied with having to follow Moscow\u2019s lead. Any meaningful attempt by Minsk to repair relations with the West would likely provoke a negative reaction from the Kremlin. Given these conditions, \u0141uka\u0161enka cannot reasonably expect favors from the EU or US, who also view him as an ally of China, their main geopolitical rival.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka holds key to future relations<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If \u0141uka\u0161enka hopes for concessions from the West, he will be disappointed. However, he could make concessions of his own to draw attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Minsk\u2019s foreign policy is fully controlled by Russia, \u0141uka\u0161enka remains in charge of domestic politics. He could release more political prisoners, halt reprisals and curb the flow of migrants. Yet, the prospect of a complete removal or significant easing of sanctions remains unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sanctions against Belarus are primarily linked to its support for Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, and they can only be lifted once the war ends\u2014over which Minsk has no control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A political thaw could make dialogue possible, but for \u0141uka\u0161enka, this remains too risky. He fears that even small concessions to political opponents could lead to a repetition of the 2020 unrest, causing his already fragile system to collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the war, changes in relations with the West are theoretically possible, but that point remains far off. Some contacts may occur, but no major shifts are expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately, progress depends largely on \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2014the ball is in his court.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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