{"id":120732,"date":"2025-01-06T12:48:29","date_gmt":"2025-01-06T09:48:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/120732\/"},"modified":"2025-01-06T12:48:30","modified_gmt":"2025-01-06T09:48:30","slug":"lukasenkas-hope-for-afd-victory-in-germany-unlikely-to-materialize","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/120732\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka’s hope for AfD victory in Germany unlikely to materialize"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka<\/strong> is rooting for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)<\/strong> in Germany\u2019s upcoming snap election, but his hopes are unlikely to materialize. Berlin is expected to maintain its hardline policy toward Minsk.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Bundestag Plenary Hall\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Steffen Pr\u00f6\u00dfdorf \/ Wikimedia Commons)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

AfD politicians linked to Belarusian propaganda<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

On December 26, t-online<\/em> published an investigation into the role of far-right politicians from Germany and other countries in Russian and Belarusian propaganda, focusing on the show SAS is Authorized to Declare<\/em> broadcast on Belarus\u2019 STV<\/em> television channel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian journalist Nadiya Sas, who previously worked for TV networks associated with controversial pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk, joined STV<\/em> in 2022. Her husband, Oleg Voloshin, a confidant of Medvedchuk, is a regular guest on her Belarusian show.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

t-online<\/em> noted that Sas\u2019s AfD-linked guests, including former Bundestag member Waldemar Gerdt and MPs Rainer Rothfu\u00df, Ulrich Singer and Maximilian Krah, regularly appeared on The Voice of Europe<\/em>, a pro-Russian propaganda network linked to Medvedchuk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other AfD politicians, such as Petr Bystron, J\u00f6rg Dornau and Anton Friesen, did not appear on STV<\/em>, but their connections to the Belarusian regime are noteworthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bystron, a member of the European Parliament, secretly visited Belarus in 2022 to meet with former Foreign Minister U\u0142adzimir Makiej. Dornau, a member of the Saxony state legislature, has faced criticism for failing to disclose his business interests in an onion farm in Belarus. In January 2023, Der Spiegel<\/em> criticized former MP Friesen over his alleged connections with the Belarusian embassy in Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not surprisingly, \u0141uka\u0161enka has expressed support for the AfD, which could shift Germany’s foreign policy if the party emerges victorious in the early Bundestag election in February 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AfD\u2019s momentum<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolved the Bundestag on December 27, calling for a snap election on February 23.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka speculated on December 26 that Alice Weidel, the AfD\u2019s co-leader, could emerge as a potential candidate for chancellor. Weidel and her allies have advocated for ending military aid to Ukraine, lifting sanctions and strengthening energy ties with Russia. The AfD also questions Germany\u2019s membership in NATO and the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite receiving support from \u0141uka\u0161enka and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the AfD is trying to distance itself from its ties to the Kremlin. Politicians like Krah, Bystron, and Dornau <\/strong>have become liabilities for the party and have largely disappeared from the public eye.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polls show the AfD, with around 20 percent support, trailing behind the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU)<\/strong>. However, the AfD has gained ground in eastern Germany, where it enjoys around 25 percent support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, \u0141uka\u0161enka’s chances of seeing Weidel become chancellor are extremely slim. All major German parties have ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition with the AfD, and the likelihood of the far-right winning an outright majority is negligible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scholz\u2019s decline signals no policy softening toward Minsk<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian propaganda has been heavily critical of Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Green Party allies. Scholz, who is the fourth chancellor during \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s tenure, has not had official contact with Minsk, but he met with \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaya, Belarus\u2019 opposition leader, and has been vocal in criticizing the Belarusian regime for its political repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2023, \u0141uka\u0161enka lashed out at Scholz after the German chancellor remarked that Putin seeks to absorb both Ukraine and Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recalling his talks with Putin before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the chancellor noted that the Russian president essentially rejected the statehood of Belarus and Ukraine. These parts of \u201chistoric Russia\u201d \u201cshould not be independent states,\u201d he quoted Putin as saying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Scholz is unlikely to be re-elected for a second term. The Social Democrats are polling in third place with 15 to 17 percent, trailing the CDU\/CSU by about 15 percentage points. CDU leader Friedrich Merz is considered the frontrunner for the chancellorship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Merz, who advocates for a tough stance on Russia, European integration and strong ties with the United States, is deeply disliked by both Russian and Belarusian propaganda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Greens, Germany\u2019s most pro-Ukrainian party, are also targets of such propaganda. Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s foreign minister from the Greens, has consistently criticized Belarusian authorities for their repressive actions, calling for the release of political prisoners. The Greens are currently polling at around 12 percent and could potentially join a coalition with Merz’s CDU\/CSU. In such a scenario, the Greens may retain the foreign minister’s post, which would be a nightmare for both Moscow and Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, this outcome is not guaranteed. Many observers believe that the CDU\/CSU will form a grand coalition with the Social Democrats, with Scholz possibly retiring from politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk can hardly expect leniency from such a coalition. If this alliance materializes, the German foreign ministry will likely remain under the control of the Social Democrats, and its policy toward the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime will remain unchanged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s hopes for an AfD surge are unlikely to materialize. The new German government is likely to maintain the current policy toward Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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