{"id":117299,"date":"2024-12-09T11:15:08","date_gmt":"2024-12-09T08:15:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/117299\/"},"modified":"2024-12-10T19:09:46","modified_gmt":"2024-12-10T16:09:46","slug":"russia-may-test-natos-resolve-using-belarus","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/117299\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia may test NATO\u2019s resolve using Belarus"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Russia is reportedly preparing for a potential conflict with NATO after 2030, according to Germany’s intelligence service. In the coming years, the Kremlin may conduct operations designed to test the alliance\u2019s response and undermine its unity, with Belarus likely playing a significant role in these efforts.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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War fears<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Following the DHL cargo plane crash in Vilnius on November 25, which killed a pilot and injured three crew members, German officials\u2014including Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, Bundeswehr Inspector General Carsten Breuer and Federal Intelligence Service (BND) President Bruno Kahl\u2014suggested that Russian saboteurs might have been behind the accident. However, no concrete evidence has been presented to support this claim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both Breuer and Kahl have warned that Russia\u2019s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine, raising concerns that Moscow may soon provoke a war with NATO within the next decade. Kahl emphasized that Russia is already preparing for a confrontation and may soon engage in operations, involving Belarus, to test NATO\u2019s resolve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nuclear threats<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

On November 28, Russian far-right activists held a plenary session of the XXVI World Russian People\u2019s Council titled \u201cThe Russian World: External and Internal Challenges\u201d at the conference hall of Christ the Savior Cathedral in Moscow. The event featured several prominent speakers, including Russian-American political commentator and TV host Dmitri Simes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simes, a member of Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s inner circle and a staunch supporter of Kremlin propaganda, returned to Russia several years ago after living in the United States since 1973. During the event, Simes said, \u201cI cannot imagine a situation where the United States, in response to a strike on Estonia, would decide to use nuclear weapons against Russia. They [the United States] would like us to believe in such a possibility, but we should not let ourselves be intimidated.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, discussions about a potential Russian nuclear strike on a NATO ally have gained traction in both Russian and Western expert circles. NATO intelligence services are closely monitoring this as a key issue. Kahl speculated that the Kremlin\u2019s plans may include an attack on a Baltic state and a bold strike on the Svalbard archipelago. These actions would serve as a test of NATO\u2019s willingness to invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which mandates collective defense in the event of an attack on a NATO member.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should Moscow decide to initiate a new “special operation,” Belarus could again serve as a staging ground, much like it did during the 2022 Kyiv offensive. In the worst-case scenario, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s regime could be directly involved in the operation, with unpredictable and potentially severe consequences for Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka avoids direct involvement in Ukraine<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Despite supporting Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine, \u0141uka\u0161enka has refrained from deploying Belarusian troops. After several early incidents, Russian forces also ceased shelling Ukraine from Belarusian territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, \u0141uka\u0161enka has consistently adopted aggressive anti-Western rhetoric and taken actions to destabilize EU neighbors. Notable examples include his role in the 2021 migration crisis, the deployment of Wagner Group mercenaries, the hosting of Russian tactical nuclear weapons and frequent threats to use them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has also urged Putin to deploy the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile in Belarus. Despite this, he has been cautious about direct military confrontation with the West, likely hoping that his anti-Western stance will enhance his political standing domestically. While he may attempt to avoid direct involvement in any future Russian attack on a NATO ally, \u0141uka\u0161enka may find it increasingly difficult to resist pressure from Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given his economic and political dependence on Russia, \u0141uka\u0161enka remains highly vulnerable to the Kremlin\u2019s influence. As such, the participation of Belarus in any future Russian operations remains highly probable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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