{"id":11563,"date":"2023-05-02T15:26:29","date_gmt":"2023-05-02T12:26:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-fears-hopes-to-sit-out-ukrainian-offensive\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-fears-hopes-to-sit-out-ukrainian-offensive","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11563\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka fears, hopes to sit out Ukrainian offensive"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alexander Friedman<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n The Ukrainian Armed Forces may launch a major offensive in coming weeks in an attempt to recapture territory occupied by Russia. The Ukrainian thrust is likely to affect Belarus, forcing Russia to engage the ally\u2019s resources.<\/b><\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka is hoping to sit out the new phase. He pins hopes on Chinese peace settlement proposals.\n<\/p>\n

Russia used Belarus in its disinformation campaign<\/h2>\n

\n\t In early 2023, Moscow sent some troops and equipment to Belarus as part of a disinformation campaign intended to mislead Ukrainian intelligence that Russia planned to launch a new offensive from Belarus, RFE\/RL<\/span> Belarus Service reported on April 25, citing a leaked document from Pentagon.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moscow evaluated its disinformation campaign as a success. At least it fueled a debate in Western media on various scenarios that included a joint strike from Belarusian territory.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Ukrainian officials made it clear that they took the threat seriously. Ukraine fortified its border with Belarus and blew up bridges and other infrastructure facilities. Kyiv kept a considerable force in northwestern Ukraine, which could not be used in other areas.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The RFE\/RL<\/span> report proves that the Kremlin uses Belarus in its military interests regardless of possible consequences for its ally. Incidents at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border could lead to armed clashes between the two countries. The conflict could spill over.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka has made sharp statements about Ukraine, but Minsk would not break off diplomatic ties with Kyiv.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Minsk would not take any action in response to the fall of missile debris on Belarusian territory in late December 2022. And its response to an attack on the Ma\u010duli\u0161\u010dy airfield was limited to a propaganda campaign and arrests of alleged Ukrainian saboteurs.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The incidents prove that the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime is walking on thin ice. The ice is not getting thicker and the much-advertised Ukrainian offensive is likely to make things worse for the Belarusian ruler.\n<\/p>\n

Kyiv exercises restraint, but conducts subversive operations in Belarus<\/h2>\n

\n\t The leaked Pentagon documents suggest that Washington and its European partners, especially France, are not quite happy with Ukraine\u2019s subversive operations in Russia and Belarus. They seem to be wary of Moscow\u2019s unpredictable response and possible war spillover.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although Kyiv has exercised restraint vis-\u00e0-vis the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime, Ukrainian officials and Western intelligence have indicated that subversive operations will continue.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarusian and US intelligence services blamed the Ma\u010duli\u0161\u010dy attack on Ukraine\u2019s Security Service. Le Monde<\/span> reported on April 21 that Kyiv seeks to obtain Belarus\u2019 digital map to improve air mission planning.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Ukraine\u2019s subversive activities in Belarus come as no surprise after the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime supported the new Russian invasion and let Russian troops attack Ukraine from Belarus. Kyiv may be waiting for an opportunity to settle scores with the Belarusian leader.\n<\/p>\n

New challenges for regime<\/h2>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka on March 31 described Kyiv\u2019s preparations for an offensive as \u201cextremely dangerous,\u201d noting that it would be \u201cthe worse thing possible under the current conditions.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian leader expressed concern about a possible \u201cirreversible escalation.\u201d His remarks reflect his own fears and insecurities in the first place, as well as his lack of confidence in Russia\u2019s success.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He is aware of Russian forces\u2019 failures and systemic issues.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although \u0141uka\u0161enka has not gotten away unpunished, he is still hoping to avoid major trouble. Belarus faces less severe sanctions than Russia. Washington, London and Brussels have delayed new restrictive measures despite the continuing human rights abuses in the country.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Despite appeals from the European Parliament and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, the International Criminal Tribunal has not yet issued an arrest warrant against \u0141uka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The war has not spilled over into Belarus, while, based on leaked documents, the Belarusian regime has even profited from it. Moreover, polls showed a rise in public confidence in the Belarusian government.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Two and a half years after mass protests, the \u0141uka\u0161enka system is stable and is not threatened by any serious internal challenges. Ukraine\u2019s offense may be a serious test.\n<\/p>\n

Hopes pinned on China\u2019s peace plan<\/h2>\n

\n\t Military experts, politicians and media in the United States and Europe are looking forward to Ukraine\u2019s offensive as a crucial phase of the war.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Optimists hope that Kyiv will succeed and will be able to negotiate peace with Moscow from the position of strength. Pessimists say that the war will drag on without much change in the front line.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Politicians in Washington, London and Berlin consider hopes for a peaceful settlement premature, while French President Emmanuel Macron is eager to reconcile the two warring camps. He counts on China\u2019s assistance in his effort.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Bloomberg reported that China and France are planning a new peace initiative to be launched after the Ukrainian offensive. Macron hopes that it will lead to a ceasefire. A frozen conflict would be a boon for \u0141uka\u0161enka, who repeatedly praised China\u2019s peace plan.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian ruler hopes that the Ukrainian offensive will fail. Any other outcome would be bad for him, and he does not even want to think about it.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka understands that Vladimir Putin considers Belarus\u2019 resources as its own and reserves the right to dispose of these resources at his own discretion.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moscow\u2019s plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus, which \u0141uka\u0161enka has approved, also poses new threats to Belarus\u2019 security.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A successful offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Russia\u2019s defeat in Ukraine might force the Kremlin to employ all resources available, including the Belarusian army and territory.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Ukraine would respond immediately, and may strike back at Belarus. Although \u0141uka\u0161enka stresses that he does not want to go to war with Ukraine, the war may eventually come to Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

* * *<\/h2>\n

\n\t Ukraine\u2019s offensive is not only a crucial phase in the war, but it will also define Belarus\u2019 role in it. \u0141uka\u0161enka has so far managed to maneuver his way out of trouble, but developments in the front may get him cornered.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alexander Friedman The Ukrainian Armed Forces may launch a major offensive in coming weeks in an attempt to recapture territory occupied by Russia. The Ukrainian thrust is likely to affect Belarus, forcing Russia to engage the ally\u2019s resources. Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka is hoping to sit out the new phase. He pins hopes on Chinese peace […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11563","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka fears, hopes to sit out Ukrainian offensive | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alexander Friedman The Ukrainian Armed Forces may launch a major offensive in coming weeks in an attempt to recapture territory occupied by Russia. 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