{"id":11553,"date":"2023-04-10T18:16:25","date_gmt":"2023-04-10T15:16:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/france-suffers-setbacks-in-belarus-minsk-too-reliant-on-moscow\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"france-suffers-setbacks-in-belarus-minsk-too-reliant-on-moscow","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11553\/","title":{"rendered":"France suffers setbacks in Belarus, Minsk too reliant on Moscow"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alexander Friedman<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Paris has been pushing for Belarus\u2019 democratization and trying to keep Minsk from deeper involvement in Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine, as well as from agreeing to host Russian nuclear weapons. However, its diplomacy has little to show for it.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t During his recent China visit, Emmanuel Macron criticized Russia\u2019s plan to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. Minsk and Moscow countered by accusing the French president of cynicism and double standards. Moreover, the Belarusian ruler dismissed his arguments as silly.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s announcement that Russia will store nuclear munitions in Belarus was a personal embarrassment for Macron, who has been trying to prevent it since the last year. It was also a failure of the French and European Union\u2019s policy toward Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

Luka\u0161enka sees Macron as outsider in politics<\/h2>\n

\n\t Belarusian President Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka made a state visit to France in July 1996 to meet with his French counterpart, Jacques Chirac. It was a rare visit by the Belarusian ruler to the West, which did not bring Belarus a diplomatic breakthrough.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Since then, Paris has never invited \u0141uka\u0161enka to France, while Chirac\u2019s successors, Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande, have not paid much attention to Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t French politicians view Belarus as a remote and secondary state located at Europe\u2019s periphery somewhere between Paris\u2019 traditional partners Warsaw and Moscow.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Minsk in February 2015 to mediate talks intended to stop the fighting in eastern Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka made small talk with Macron during the FIFA World Cup final in Moscow in 2018. The two had a phone conversation in late February 2022.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Macron was the first Western leader to meet face to face with \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja after she had challenged the official results of Belarus\u2019 2020 presidential election that handed victory to \u0141uka\u0161enka. That meeting took place in Vilnius in late August 2020. Bernard-Henry Levy, a French public intellectual, played a key role in arranging it and creating a positive image for Cichano\u016dskaja in the West as the Belarusian Joan of Arc.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t After \u0141uka\u0161enka suppressed protests and launched a large-scale campaign of reprisals, Paris took a tough stance on Belarus. It has supported the country\u2019s pro-democracy forces, advocated sanctions and would not recognize \u0141uka\u0161enka as the country\u2019s legitimate ruler.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t French Ambassador Nicolas de Lacoste was expelled from Belarus in October 2021 after he had refused to present his credentials to \u0141uka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Like his predecessor Hollande, Macron looks down on \u0141uka\u0161enka as a marginal figure with bad manners and Moscow\u2019s puppet. However, the French president can engage with him, if necessary. Macron\u2019s arrogant attitude angers the ambitious and self-confident \u0141uka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian ruler does not know much about France and other European countries and analyzes developments there through the prism of Russian propaganda, repeating its anti-French narratives. He sees the late Chirac, who promoted cooperation with Russia, as an outstanding statesman, but perceives Hollande and Macron as arrogant small politicians and outsiders in politics.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He dislikes Hollande for his skepticism about the Minsk agreements, which \u0141uka\u0161enka touts among his key personal achievements.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Macron has been the target of regular attacks from Belarusian state propaganda for his support of Belarusian protesters and Cichano\u016dskaja. \u0141uka\u0161enka despises him as an embodiment of Western liberal values.\n<\/p>\n

France\u2019s anti-nuclear effort fails<\/h2>\n

\n\t French politicians followed closely developments in Belarus in 2020, but the country went off their radar in the second half of 2021.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Cichano\u016dskaja received a warm reception in France in September 2021, but Macron did not find time to meet her. The French president was not involved in the 2020 talks to address the migrant crisis engineered by Belarus that were conducted by Merkel.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t After her departure, Macron has been trying to take on the role of the EU leader. He made overtures to Russia, trying to prevent the invasion of Ukraine as he had reason to fear that the Russian aggression might trigger a nuclear world war.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus has been regarded in that context as Russia\u2019s potential ally in the war, a potential battleground, and also as a country that might agree to host Russian nuclear weapons.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Paris can hardly be given credit for Belarus not sending its troops to fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine and for preventing the war from spilling over into Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t That was not so much the result of pressure and threats from the United States, France, Germany and other EU countries. Russia just does not consider Belarus\u2019 greater involvement expedient at this point.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t As for the possible nuclear deployment, it was France, the EU\u2019s only nuclear power, that worked hard to prevent it through diplomatic efforts directed at Russia, Belarus and China.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t According to unconfirmed reports, Bernard \u00c9mi\u00e9, director of the French external intelligence service, the DGSE, visited Minsk in late March in a failed last-ditch attempt to talk Minsk out of accepting the nuclear deployment.\n<\/p>\n

* * *<\/h2>\n

\n\t Macron has suffered a number of foreign policy setbacks in Africa and has failed to establish himself as the political leader of Europe. He failed to prevent the war in Ukraine, while his talks with Putin before and after the start of the war also ended in failures.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Neither was his Belarus policy a success. EU sanctions and pressure have not had a positive impact on Belarus, which may still be dragged deeper into the Russian war against Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Finally, despite France\u2019s diplomacy, Russia intends to site nuclear weapons in Belarus. Although Paris keeps working to prevent it, its chances are diminishing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alexander Friedman Paris has been pushing for Belarus\u2019 democratization and trying to keep Minsk from deeper involvement in Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine, as well as from agreeing to host Russian nuclear weapons. However, its diplomacy has little to show for it. During his recent China visit, Emmanuel Macron criticized Russia\u2019s plan to deploy nuclear […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11553","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFrance suffers setbacks in Belarus, Minsk too reliant on Moscow | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alexander Friedman Paris has been pushing for Belarus\u2019 democratization and trying to keep Minsk from deeper involvement in Russia\u2019s war against\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11553\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"France suffers setbacks in Belarus, Minsk too reliant on 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