{"id":11545,"date":"2023-03-17T17:59:12","date_gmt":"2023-03-17T14:59:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/minsks-unjustified-enthusiasm-about-ties-with-iran\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"minsks-unjustified-enthusiasm-about-ties-with-iran","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11545\/","title":{"rendered":"Minsk\u2019s unjustified enthusiasm about ties with Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d<\/span> \n<\/p>\n

\n Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka made a state visit to Iran on March 12-13 in an effort to boost economic and other ties. The outcast regimes have little to offer each other, except for empathy.<\/span><\/b> \n<\/p>\n

\n\t It was \u0141uka\u0161enka’s third visit to Iran, after having previously visited the country in 1998 and 2006. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t To better understand the hidden meaning behind the Belarusian-Iranian friendship, it is important to keep in mind what drives Minsk’s foreign policy. The Belarusian economy is inefficient and heavily reliant on external support. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s approach is simple yet brilliant: find an external sponsor who, for political, geopolitical, or ideological reasons, agrees to subsidize Belarus. \n<\/p>\n

\nRussian aid not for free <\/h3>\n

\n\t The idea of trading shared ideology and political goals for economic benefits is not new. For example, during the Cold War, the Soviet Union subsidized governments that embraced socialism. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t In the 1990s, the Belarusian leader did not have to look far for a sponsor as his neighbor, Russia, suffered from a post-imperial syndrome and longed for the status of a great power after the collapse of the Soviet Union. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka proposed reintegration and rapprochement with the empire in return for subsidies. His offer was a balm for the sore soul of Russian society and elite. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t The gas-for-kisses arrangement worked well for many years, providing economic and social stability to Belarus. But reliance on handouts carries risks. Over time, \u0141uka\u0161enka found out that Russian economic aid was not for free. Minsk and Moscow had many disputes over the size of subsidies and concessions. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moreover, with each passing year, Belarus required more and more aid to finance its welfare state, while Moscow was eager to convert its economic support into political influence. \n<\/p>\n

\nVenezuela, Iran: Bubbles burst <\/h3>\n

\n\t Finally, \u0141uka\u0161enka figured out that he needs other sources of support in addition to Russia. Minsk has flirted with China but without much success. The Chinese turned out to be very pragmatic. They do not give money just for flattering rhetoric. All their loans are tied to Chinese equipment and labor force. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Frequent visits by Lukashenko to oil-rich Persian Gulf countries (United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and others) also did not generate enough cash to save the ailing Belarusian economy. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Who else could he go to? Definitely, he could try his luck in countries that are at odds with the United States, fond of anti-imperialist rhetoric, and have petrodollars. That was the reason Belarus reached out to Iran and Venezuela in the 2000s. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Despite similar ideologies, \u0141uka\u0161enka has never visited North Korea. After all, there is nothing to get there, they are starving. Whereas Iran and Venezuela generously sponsored ideologically-close regimes and political movements. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t At first, everything seemed to work smoothly. There were visits, statements of mutual political support, talks about forging an anti-American axis and, most importantly, joint economic projects. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarusian state media lauded breakthroughs in Latin America and the East, claiming that Minsk has found alternative oil suppliers to reduce its dependence on Russia. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t But all those projects were built on shaky ground \u2013 political agreements rather than commercial calculations. The economics was expected to adjust to political expediency. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Projects were accompanied by propaganda noise. However, after some time, it turned out that someone had to pay for the friendship. Officials started counting money, and it turned out that no economic calculations had been made. The bubbles burst. \n<\/p>\n

\nFailure of Samand, joint oil development <\/h3>\n

\n\t The collapse of Venezuelan mega-projects was particularly notable. There were also many economic failures in relations between Belarus and Iran. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Iran set up a plant near Minsk to assemble Samand cars, but closed it a few years later due to low demand. A joint project to develop the Jufair oil field in Iran failed to get traction because of Western sanctions. Another failed project is the Minsk Magnit development abandoned by an Iranian company. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Efforts to strengthen ties intensified under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005-2013), but stalled after his departure. Top-level meetings took place only on the sidelines of international forums. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Iran has been targeted by sanctions for many years, including secondary measures applying to those who dealt with Tehran. Minsk was cautious for fear of secondary sanctions. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Annual trade between the two countries ranged between $30 million and $200 million. \n<\/p>\n

\nOutcasts have limited choice of partners <\/h3>\n

\n\t Last year, Minsk moved to revive its alliance with Tehran. \u0141uka\u0161enka and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi had a meeting in September in Samarkand on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. Belarusian Foreign Minister U\u0142adzimir Makiej visited Iran in October and Prime Minister Raman Halo\u016d\u010danka was in Tehran in November.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Both countries have few friends internationally. The Iranian regime has recently suppressed mass protests, killing dozens of protesters, including by sentencing opponents to death. It declared the uprising a Western conspiracy. Does it sound familiar?\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Russian invasion of Ukraine has polarized the world. \u0141uka\u0161enka complained last year that Belarus and Russia faced off against 52 countries supporting Kiev.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In 2022, he urged the Collective Security Treaty Organization and SCO member states to back Russia in its standoff with the West.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t His appeals were not completely useless. Iran reportedly offered Russia its military support. Iranian drones are said to widely used by Russia in its war against Ukraine. Iran, in fact, is Russia\u2019s ally.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Therefore, Belarus is no longer the only country to support Russia. So there is common ground for rapprochement between Minsk and Tehran.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka no longer cares that Iran is under Western sanctions because he has found himself in a similar situation. Faced with international isolation, he has a limited choice of partners.\n<\/p>\n

Plans<\/h3>\n

\n\t The main purpose of his visit was more political and PR-oriented. It was intended to show Belarusian society and elites, as well as external actors, that efforts to isolate Belarus failed as \u0141uka\u0161enka continues to travel around the world.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The trip was also designed to demonstrate the potential of the anti-Western alliance of Belarus, Russia, Iran, and possibly China. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Minsk\u2019s economic ambitions are not as impressive as they were during Ahmadinejad’s rule. Belarusian officials estimated recent agreements at $100 million, whereas ten years ago Minsk and Tehran had declared intentions to boost annual trade to $1 billion. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t During negotiations with Lukashenko, Raisi said, “Iran is ready to share its experience of sanctions resistance with Belarus.” However, the Belarusian leadership should not have any illusions. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Iran’s efforts to mitigate sanctions have not been successful at all. The country has become dependent on China. And it is hard to see how Tehran can assist Belarus in circumventing sanctions.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the other hand, military cooperation is quite possible. Belarus can join Iran’s joint projects with Russia and China.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d  Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka made a state visit to Iran on March 12-13 in an effort to boost economic and other ties. The outcast regimes have little to offer each other, except for empathy.  It was \u0141uka\u0161enka’s third visit to Iran, after having previously visited the country in 1998 and 2006.  To better understand […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11545","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMinsk\u2019s unjustified enthusiasm about ties with Iran | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d  Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka made a state visit to Iran on March 12-13 in an effort to boost economic and other ties. 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