{"id":11535,"date":"2023-02-23T12:47:53","date_gmt":"2023-02-23T09:47:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/war-anniversary-lukasenka-walking-very-fine-line\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"war-anniversary-lukasenka-walking-very-fine-line","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11535\/","title":{"rendered":"War anniversary: \u0141uka\u0161enka walking very fine line"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b><span>One year ago Russian military vehicles rolled into Ukraine from Belarus in an attempt to take Kyiv. The blitzkrieg failed, while the war rages on with Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka proudly carrying the label of a co-aggressor. The Belarusian ruler may be still hoping to avoid deeper involvement as he refrains from sending Belarusian troops to help out the Russians.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n<h2>Economic repercussions<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Russian economic aid helps Minsk to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions imposed for facilitating the Russian assault. The Belarusian economy contracted by just 4.7 percent last year and remains afloat. Officials even boasted a huge trade surplus of about $4.5 billion.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Moscow has offered Minsk a considerable discount for natural gas, priced at $128.52 per 1000 cu meters from 2023 to 2025, and preferential oil delivery terms. It has also rescheduled debt repayment.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Minsk also obtained a loan of $1.4 billion for import substitution programs. Belarusian companies might be awarded Russian contracts for the manufacture of microchips and Su-25 ground attack aircraft.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarus\u2019 trade with the European Union (EU) has plunged, and ties with Ukraine are broken just as supply chains. Belarus was denied access to a key Lithuanian port, and currently sends potash fertilizers to China by freight trains via Russia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Minsk has played up its effort to redirect trade flows to Russia and other countries.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Russia\u2019s share of Belarus\u2019 foreign trade rose to more 60 percent in 2022. Dependence on Moscow has also increased in other areas. Minsk was forced to sign 28 integration programs designed to tie Belarus to Russia economically and institutionally.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The war has accelerated the integration process that may eventually lead to Belarus\u2019 incorporation. Any new government would find it difficult to undo the interwoven ties and supply chains.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Military submission<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Minsk has ceded its sovereignty over military matters and foreign policies to Moscow.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Although \u0141uka\u0161enka formally remains the commander in chief, Russian generals run the show in Belarus. The Russians are training here their draftees under the auspices of the joint regional group of forces, and may use the neighbor\u2019s territory and infrastructure for new assaults on Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Observers fear that the Russian president may eventually force his Belarusian counterpart to send troops to Ukraine, and \u0141uka\u0161enka may not be able to resist.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin seems to be happy for the time being with \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s submissiveness. He visited Minsk in December to promise more financial and economic aid.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian leader must have convinced him that Belarus can be anything \u2013 an outpost, a jumping-off ground, a training ground, and a supplier of important goods \u2013 but it should not send its special operations forces to Ukraine. The mighty Belarusian army, \u0141uka\u0161enka claims, keeps NATO at bay.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Opposition, regime have limited room for maneuver<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Opposition leaders, most of whom were forced to flee abroad, do not have the leverage to prevent the regime\u2019s entry into the war.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t As the government continues its ruthless crackdown on dissent, it would be difficult for the opposition to put its resistance plan into action and organize underground units. \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s cabinet is aware of it.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Kastu\u015b Ka\u0142ino\u016dski Regiment (KKR), formed of Belarusian volunteers fighting Russia under Ukrainian command, has declared what looks like an unrealistic mission to free Belarus after liberating Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Nevertheless, the regiment has become a political player that has attracted interest from major opposition forces.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Kyiv supports the KKR, shuns Cichano\u016dskaja and is looking to strike a non-aggression pact with \u0141uka\u0161enka who has been warned by Moscow against any dealings with Ukraine behind its back.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Kremlin\u2019s clout, the co-aggressor label and the campaign of terror in Belarus prevent the Belarusian strongman from initiating a diplomatic dance with the West.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Opportunities for change<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Although the war came as a shock, the outcome of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s games with the empire is quite predictable. The war is a catalyst of the creeping incorporation process. It is also responsible for the staggering gulf between the ruling regime and democracy.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The regime\u2019s alliance with Moscow has tarnished the Belarusians\u2019 international reputation, which improved during the 2020 protests. Some Belarusians face discrimination abroad. The Cichano\u016dskaja team should be given credit for raising international awareness of the distinctions between the people and the regime.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian ruler has demonstrated masterful versatility as he tries of avoid an international tribunal. The Putin regime may waver after a series of setbacks in Ukraine, whereas \u0141uka\u0161enka always leaves himself a chance to get away.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Ukraine\u2019s victory may open up opportunities for opponents to defeat him. He relies on Moscow\u2019s support and the campaign of terror. Moscow\u2019s weakness would undercut Belarusian dictatorship.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, the outcome of the war is difficult to predict. The first year was full of bloodshed, the second year is likely to be tough too.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN One year ago Russian military vehicles rolled into Ukraine from Belarus in an attempt to take Kyiv. The blitzkrieg failed, while the war rages on with Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka proudly carrying the label of a co-aggressor. The Belarusian ruler may be still hoping to avoid deeper involvement as he refrains from sending Belarusian [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11535","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>War anniversary: \u0141uka\u0161enka walking very fine line | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN One year ago Russian military vehicles rolled into Ukraine from Belarus in an attempt to take Kyiv. 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