{"id":11530,"date":"2023-02-14T12:49:24","date_gmt":"2023-02-14T09:49:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/analysts-question-sanctions-policy-against-minsk\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"analysts-question-sanctions-policy-against-minsk","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts question sanctions policy against Minsk"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b><span>Poland\u2019s February 10 closure of the Bobrowniki crossing would make it more difficult for Belarusians to travel abroad on business or to see relatives living across the border.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Warsaw made it clear that the move was in response to an eight-year prison sentence imposed by Belarusian authorities on Polish journalist and minority activist Andrzej Poczobut.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka, of the Belarusian opposition\u2019s United Transitional Cabinet, welcomed the move, noting that \u201cthe only position, from which one can talk to [Alaksandr] \u0141uka\u0161enka is the position of strength.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, some observers doubt that this measure or other sanctions can force the Belarusian ruler to free Poczobut or other political prisoners. On the other hand, sanctions affect ordinary people.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Not a macroeconomic event<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The Borowniki checkpoint closure is not a macroeconomic event, Le\u016d Lvo\u016dski, of the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center, told The Viewer, noting that the move should not be overestimated.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Logistical problems will affect both Belarusian and European companies, but will not reflect on Belarus\u2019 gross domestic product, he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Pavie\u0142 Macukievi\u010d, an ex-diplomat and a senior researcher with the Center of New Ideas, noted that the move might affect travelers, shuttle traders and border region economies. \u201cConsumers will be the hardest hit, not the regime,\u201d he stressed.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Even the complete blockade, which Warsaw has not ruled out, is unlikely to force the Belarusian authorities into making concessions, he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cIt would undoubtedly be painful for the economy, but not mortal, as suggests the experience of closure of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border and the termination of mutual trade. The regime survived the loss of multibillion exports without being in mourning,\u201d Macukievi\u010d said.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Questionable impact of sanctions<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Over the past few years, democratic countries have imposed sanctions on Belarus over human rights abuses and the country\u2019s complicity in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cThe regime has proved the sanction policy to be ineffective by its 30-year existence,\u201d Macukievi\u010d said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cThere is no result, if the result was supposed to be sociopolitical liberalization,\u201d he noted. \u201cQuite the contrary, the authorities are moving in the opposite direction away from democracy.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The side-effects of sanctions include damage to specific businesses, a weaker economy and strained economic sovereignty, he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t One of the industries hit hard is potash fertilizers. Belarus transports crop nutrients to China by land because sea routes have been blocked. \u201cIncome of the [potash] company and its workers has fallen. Expenses for the regime are not so obvious, although it should have been the other way round,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He stressed that sanctions exacerbate Belarus\u2019 dependence on Russia.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Opposition has food for thought<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t It is beyond doubt that Warsaw is free to decide on tools it can use to secure the release of the minority leader.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Democratic countries have imposed sanctions to emphasize their commitment to principles and punish the regime for its outrageous behavior, for instance the forced landing of a Ryanair flight or a migrant crisis at the EU border.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, Western powers seem to disregard the risks of incorporation of Belarus into Russia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarusian opposition politicians support Western sanctions because they do not have any other tools of influence on the regime. Moreover, the opposition has only indirect influence on the West\u2019s sanction policy.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja, \u0141atu\u0161ka and their associates have been calling on the West to tighten sanctions in order to weaken the regime and force \u0141uka\u0161enka to compromise.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, the regime has become more brutal under sanctions. It has not released any political prisoners and continues to suppress dissent. A new public uprising against it, triggered by sanctions, looks unlikely.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Proponents of sanctions blame \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s integration policy for Belarus\u2019 heavy dependence on Russia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Their critics argue that the Belarusian leader attempted to reduce that dependence when he had some room for maneuver, whereas now sanctions force him to make new concessions to Moscow.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Iran and Venezuela do not face the risk of being absorbed by bigger powers, while Belarus can be absorbed by Russia, they say.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t It is true that the Belarusian opposition has almost no tools of influence on the regime. But this does not entitle it to appeal for sanctions, not a sterile and unquestionable tool.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarusian politicians need to debate the matter. Some voices, including veteran politician Zianon Pa\u017aniak and Coordinating Council member Volha Kavalkova have been calling for a more flexible approach.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The overhauled opposition Coordinating Council, which has been touted as parliament in exile, should hold a meaningful debate on sanctions and possible policy adjustments, if necessary.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN Poland\u2019s February 10 closure of the Bobrowniki crossing would make it more difficult for Belarusians to travel abroad on business or to see relatives living across the border. Warsaw made it clear that the move was in response to an eight-year prison sentence imposed by Belarusian authorities on Polish journalist and minority [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11530","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Analysts question sanctions policy against Minsk | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN Poland\u2019s February 10 closure of the Bobrowniki crossing would make it more difficult for Belarusians to travel abroad on\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analysts question sanctions policy against Minsk | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN Poland\u2019s February 10 closure of the Bobrowniki crossing would make it more difficult for Belarusians to travel abroad on\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Pozirk_online\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/\"},\"headline\":\"Analysts question sanctions policy against Minsk\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-02-14T09:49:24+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/\"},\"wordCount\":771,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/\",\"name\":\"Analysts question sanctions policy against Minsk | Pozirk\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-02-14T09:49:24+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00\",\"description\":\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN Poland\u2019s February 10 closure of the Bobrowniki crossing would make it more difficult for Belarusians to travel abroad on\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Analysts question sanctions policy against Minsk\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\",\"name\":\"Pozirk\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Pozirk\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png\",\"width\":512,\"height\":512,\"caption\":\"Pozirk\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/Pozirk_online\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Analysts question sanctions policy against Minsk | Pozirk","description":"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN Poland\u2019s February 10 closure of the Bobrowniki crossing would make it more difficult for Belarusians to travel abroad on","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Analysts question sanctions policy against Minsk | Pozirk","og_description":"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN Poland\u2019s February 10 closure of the Bobrowniki crossing would make it more difficult for Belarusians to travel abroad on","og_url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/","og_site_name":"Pozirk","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/","article_modified_time":"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@Pozirk_online","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/"},"headline":"Analysts question sanctions policy against Minsk","datePublished":"2023-02-14T09:49:24+00:00","dateModified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/"},"wordCount":771,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization"},"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/","name":"Analysts question sanctions policy against Minsk | Pozirk","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-02-14T09:49:24+00:00","dateModified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00","description":"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN Poland\u2019s February 10 closure of the Bobrowniki crossing would make it more difficult for Belarusians to travel abroad on","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11530\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Analysts question sanctions policy against Minsk"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/","name":"Pozirk","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization","name":"Pozirk","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png","width":512,"height":512,"caption":"Pozirk"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/","https:\/\/x.com\/Pozirk_online"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/longreads\/11530","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/longreads"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/longreads"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/75"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11530"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"rubric","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rubric?post=11530"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}