{"id":11529,"date":"2023-02-10T12:15:10","date_gmt":"2023-02-10T09:15:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-looking-for-additional-support-mindful-of-risks\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-looking-for-additional-support-mindful-of-risks","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11529\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka looking for additional support, mindful of risks"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Belarus\u2019 political system is going through fundamental changes for the first time since 1996.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The constitution adopted one year ago gives more powers to the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly and redistributes powers of other branches, such as the president, parliament and the Constitutional Court.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The system retrogresses from authoritarianism to totalitarianism as Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka is looking for a safe exit strategy.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On February 7, he signed a law governing the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly, which is not expected to convene until late April 2024.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the same day, members of the major pro-government association formed an organizing committee for a new political party called Bie\u0142aja Ru\u015b.\n<\/p>\n

Party of power<\/h2>\n

\n\t The emergence of a party of power would be a sharp twist.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Bie\u0142aja Ru\u015b was established as public association in 2007. \u0141uka\u0161enka has blocked several attempts by its leadership to launch a political party.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He coped well with the old and simple system consisting of the leader and the people and did not trust any intermediaries.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Vladimir Putin\u2019s United Russia was not very convincing. Membership or leadership in a party would somewhat degrade \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s status and narrow his voter base.\n<\/p>\n

Not quite United Russia, not quite CPSU<\/h2>\n

\n\t The authoritarian regime is undergoing transformation, edging closer to totalitarianism. \u0141uka\u0161enka is no longer afraid that a party of his true-and-tried supporters can narrow his base. He is no longer looking for public support as he relies on security forces to keep himself in power.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Totalitarianism usually involves a ruling party and an ideology. So, he will have at least one element in Bie\u0142aja Ru\u015b.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka might not even know much about totalitarianism. He just follows his intuition and relies on his experience. The Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) is the only example he can copy because he was raised under its control.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t However, the new party is unlikely to be an exact copy of the CPSU because times have changed. Neither will it copy United Russia, which was formed before elections and functions as an election machine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus has not had real elections for a long time. No elections will be held for the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly. \u0141uka\u0161enka even suggested abolishing elections in principle, but decided against it.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The ruling party\u2019s focus will not be on elections. It will not face any competition because authorities are likely to disband the remaining opposition parties during the re-registration campaign.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Bie\u0142aja Ru\u015b might be used as an additional filter to test officials\u2019 loyalty. Ruling party membership might be a requirement for candidates for top government jobs.\n<\/p>\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has doubts<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Belarusian leader is improvising. He would like to put up one more pillar to support his regime, but he is mindful that pro-government organizations, such as the Federation of Trade Union of Belarus and the Belarusian National Youth Union, simply disappeared during the 2020 political unrest.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t His administration struggled to gather a handful of supporters for pro-government rallies. The big government-established organizations proved to be nothing but spongers. Why would Bie\u0142aja Ru\u015b be different?\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Besides, \u0141uka\u0161enka might be afraid that the new party leadership might try to compete with him for power at one point in the future. His improvisation creates too much uncertainty.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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