{"id":11516,"date":"2022-12-30T13:13:01","date_gmt":"2022-12-30T10:13:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-struggling-to-maneuver-his-way-out-of-trouble\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-struggling-to-maneuver-his-way-out-of-trouble","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11516\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka struggling to maneuver his way out of trouble"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b><span>Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka is said to be the only leader to put the ring presented by Russian President Vladimir Putin on his finger during an informal summit held in Saint Petersburg earlier this week as he seized the opportunity to demonstrate his loyalty to Moscow.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The regime\u2019s dependence on Moscow drastically increased in 2022. Only a slim chance remains that Minsk may try to distance itself from Russia in 2023. Developments in Ukraine have a crucial impact on Belarus\u2019 future.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Economic dependence<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The main highlight of 2022 was Belarus\u2019 complicity in Russia\u2019s aggression against Ukraine. \u0141uka\u0161enka is heavily indebted to Putin for his support during the post-election political unrest in Belarus in 2020. Therefore, the Belarusian ruler could hardly deny his patron an opportunity to launch an assault on Ukraine from Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, \u0141uka\u0161enka has not benefited from the war in any way. He was punished by Western sanctions. Belarus narrowly escaped a sharp economic decline by redirecting exports from Ukraine and Europe to Russia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The country\u2019s economy contracted by 4.7 percent in the first 11 months. Prime Minister Raman Halo\u016d\u010danka is expecting a year-to-year decline of four percent on the back of a steep rise in exports to Russia to at least $22 billion, according to his estimates.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Economic autocracy and restricted access to Western technologies are likely to have a long-term impact on the two economies. Rising sales in Russia also increase Belarus\u2019 dependence on its eastern neighbor.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Moreover, tax harmonization and more than two dozen integration programs have strained Belarus\u2019 sovereignty over economic matters.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka said recently that the programs were already 60 percent complete. Meanwhile, officials are working on proposals for a new integration package, said Dmitry Mezentsev, state secretary of the Union State of Belarus and Russia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The interwoven economic chains can hardly be undone quickly after a change of government.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Springboard for Russian attacks on Ukraine<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Close political and military ties have the worst effect on Belarus\u2019 sovereignty. On February 24, Russian troops marched on Kyiv from Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka has provided infrastructure for Russian forces, including training bases for Russian troops. Moscow may eventually persuade him to send his troops to Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian leader argues that Belarusian soldiers should remain at their positions in Belarus to defend Russia from a hypothetical attack from NATO.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He seems to enjoy a good spell of understanding with Putin. Moscow no longer uses its economic muscle to leverage its political relations with Minsk. Moreover, the Russian president visited the Belarusian capital on December 19 in appreciation of Belarus\u2019 commitment to its alliance with Russia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Meanwhile, Moscow consolidates its influence in Belarus step by step.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Slim chance of negotiations with West<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Russia\u2019s blitzkrieg has failed. Although \u0141uka\u0161enka supports Moscow in his statements and blames Kyiv and the West, he is pondering how he can maneuver his way out of trouble.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Indirect evidence of that was his decision earlier this month to appoint Siarhiej Alejnik, a career diplomat in charge of relations with the West, as foreign minister.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Possible negotiations between Minsk and the West depend on the latter\u2019s flexibility, but only to a certain extent. It can adjust the degree of sanctions to punish or reward the Belarusian regime.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, Minsk\u2019s reliance on Moscow and involvement in the Russian aggression have left the regime almost no room for maneuver.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Apart from that, \u0141uka\u0161enka is afraid to open up politics as he is aware of voters\u2019 frustration with his rule.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka is said to be the only leader to put the ring presented by Russian President Vladimir Putin on his finger during an informal summit held in Saint Petersburg earlier this week as he seized the opportunity to demonstrate his loyalty to Moscow. The regime\u2019s dependence on Moscow drastically increased [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11516","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u0141uka\u0161enka struggling to maneuver his way out of trouble | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka is said to be the only leader to put the ring presented by Russian President Vladimir Putin on his finger\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11516\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" 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