{"id":11515,"date":"2022-12-29T13:47:11","date_gmt":"2022-12-29T10:47:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarus-future-hinges-on-outcome-of-russian-ukrainian-war\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarus-future-hinges-on-outcome-of-russian-ukrainian-war","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11515\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus\u2019 future hinges on outcome of Russian-Ukrainian war"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n By Alaksandr Frydman<\/span>\n<\/div>\n

\n Belarus\u2019 isolation deepened in 2022 despite Minsk\u2019s attempts to involve the West in a bargaining process. It may make a new effort in 2023 to unfreeze relations with the West.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Heavy dependence on Russia, no breakthrough with China<\/h2>\n

\n\t The year 2022 was marred by Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Belarus\u2019 role as a staging ground for Russian attacks prompted Western countries to impose new sanctions on Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s regime.  \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Not surprisingly, the Belarusian strongman has not traveled anywhere outside the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) this year. Most of his foreign contacts were Russian governors and senior officials.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Meanwhile, Belarus\u2019 foreign ministry redirected its diplomatic energies to the East. The late Foreign Minister U\u0142adzimir Makiej visited India and Iran, while Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142ou\u010danka traveled to Syria.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus also launched the process of accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and strengthened ties with rogue regimes such as Iran and Syria, as well as with the authoritarian governments in Turkey and Azerbaijan.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka continued to curry favor with Communist China, but has not achieved much success. Although Beijing is interested in Belarus in principle because of its economic potential and geographic location at the center of Europe, it was put off by Western sanctions. Moreover, Beijing is cautious to expand in Belarus, which it sees as Russia\u2019s sphere of influence.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Beijing is aware of Minsk\u2019s heavy military, economic and political dependence on Russia and its waning influence in the CIS.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moreover, CIS and Collective Security Treaty Organization partners perceive \u0141uka\u0161enka as the Kremlin\u2019s mouthpiece. He took up that role during January\u2019s political unrest in Kazakhstan and has been vocal in advocating the Kremlin\u2019s interests after Russia\u2019s assault on Ukraine in February.\n<\/p>\n

Failure to engage West<\/h2>\n

\n\t Minsk\u2019s relations with the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom and the United States remain rancid as tensions remain high over the disputed presidential election in 2020 and the suppression of post-election protests.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Brussels, London and Washington have not recognized the official election results, denounced police violence and threw their weight behind opposition leader Sviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja. Although the West has imposed heavy sanctions, critics say it could do more to uproot the entrenched regime. Instead, the EU and United States left the door half-open for possible negotiations.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t However, \u0141uka\u0161enka has ignored that opportunity as he continues a campaign of terror to keep himself in power.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In apparent retaliation for protests and in an attempt to eradicate dissent, security officers resorted to air piracy to force a passenger plane to land in Minsk in order to arrest a prominent government critic. The Belarusian leader is also accused of engineering a migrant crisis at the Belarusian-EU border. His attempt to raise stakes have failed, prompting the West to tighten sanctions.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In general, Makiej\u2019s strategy of trading prisoners for international recognition of the regime and suspension of sanctions has not been successful.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Minsk made a few concessions though. In particular, in October 2020 \u0141uka\u0161enka ordered the release of Belarusian-American political technologist Vital \u0160klaro\u016d after receiving a phone call from Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state at the time. Minsk also freed Israeli lawyer Maya Raiten-Stol after a phone call from Israeli President Isaac Herzog in December 2021. In February 2022, authorities released Natallia Hersche, a Belarus-born Swiss national, nine days after Swiss Ambassador Christine Honegger presented her credentials to Foreign Minister Makiej.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Hersche left Belarus days before Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine from Belarus. Minsk was immediately sanctioned by the West as a co-aggressor. \u0141uka\u0161enka learned the lesson and has been more cautious later in 2022.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although he has ramped up his anti-Western rhetoric, he is cautious not to provoke the EU by specific actions and repeatedly called on the West to engage in dialog. He also offered his services as a \u201cneutral\u201d host for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

Hopes for geopolitical jockeying remain<\/h2>\n

\n\t Russia\u2019s failures in Ukraine, Minsk\u2019s dependence on the Kremlin and pressure from Moscow, as well as the pure economic necessity have forced \u0141uka\u0161enka to make overtures to the West.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Makiej tried to whitewash the regime by stressing its alleged independence of Moscow and playing down its role in the Russian war against Ukraine. His efforts have not paid off. The opposition camp led by Cichano\u016dskaja has effectively and consistently exposed the regime\u2019s false claims.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The West perceives \u0141uka\u0161enka as the Kremlin\u2019s puppet and as a dictator responsible for massive human rights abuses in Belarus. Still, it believes that the Belarusian ruler plays a secondary role in Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Its concern about Belarus\u2019 political prisoners has taken a backseat to worries about the war.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Washington, Brussels and London continue to distinguish between Belarus and Russia, encouraging \u0141uka\u0161enka to avoid his country\u2019s direct involvement in the hostilities.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Western governments have been discussing new sanctions against Russia but have left Belarus off the package.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The outcome of the war is likely to be crucial for \u0141uka\u0161enka and his regime.\n<\/p>\n

Between incorporation and \u201cWestern threat\u201d<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Washington Post reported on December 22 that the Joe Biden administration considers three options for peaceful settlement in Ukraine: 1) the full withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine to the 1991 borders; 2) withdrawal to restore the February 24 status quo; and 3) the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, except Crimea.  \n<\/p>\n

\n\t If Russia defeats Ukraine, both Ukraine and Belarus are likely to be incorporated into Russia. The scenario is not even under consideration.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t All three options above mean Russia\u2019s defeat. The first one amounts to Moscow\u2019s capitulation and eventual collapse of the Vladimir Putin regime and likely fall of \u0141uka\u0161enka. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t The two other outcomes might ease Russian pressure on Belarus and give the Belarusian ruler some room to maneuver.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t After the deeply flowed and disputed election in 2020, \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s future largely depends on external players.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t If Moscow wins, it would decide Belarus\u2019 future. If the war drags on, Moscow would be coddling \u0141uka\u0161enka with preferences, but it would also try to use Belarus for its military campaign.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t If Russia suffers a humiliating defeat, \u0141uka\u0161enka would be at the mercy of Kyiv and the West. He does not trust the West, which, in his opinion, deceived, betrayed and killed dictators Muammar al-Gaddafi and Slobodan Milosevic.\n<\/p>\n

* * *<\/h2>\n

\n\t Next year, Minsk may be putting out feelers for negotiations with the West. Foreign Minister Siarhiej Alejnik may turn to his contacts in the Vatican for help.  \n<\/p>\n

\n\t The West\u2019s willingness to engage will depend on the internal political developments in Belarus, developments on the frontline and Belarus\u2019 role in Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  \n<\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandr Frydman Belarus\u2019 isolation deepened in 2022 despite Minsk\u2019s attempts to involve the West in a bargaining process. It may make a new effort in 2023 to unfreeze relations with the West. Heavy dependence on Russia, no breakthrough with China The year 2022 was marred by Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Belarus\u2019 role as a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11515","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBelarus\u2019 future hinges on outcome of Russian-Ukrainian war | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr Frydman Belarus\u2019 isolation deepened in 2022 despite Minsk\u2019s attempts to involve the West in a bargaining process. 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