{"id":11499,"date":"2022-11-18T11:19:56","date_gmt":"2022-11-18T08:19:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/minsk-interested-to-have-russian-ukrainian-conflict-frozen-on-moscows-conditions\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"minsk-interested-to-have-russian-ukrainian-conflict-frozen-on-moscows-conditions","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11499\/","title":{"rendered":"Minsk interested to have Russian-Ukrainian conflict frozen on Moscow\u2019s conditions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Alaksandr Fridman<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <span><b>The Ukrainian president has rejected negotiations on a new Minsk agreement. Minsk 3 would not bring about peace and would enable Russia to recover and start a new campaign of terror and global destabilization, he told the G-20 in Bali, Indonesia, earlier this week.<\/b><\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Vladimir Putin, accused the Ukrainian leader of refusal to engage. On the following day, Russia launched a massive missile attack on Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t After a series of setbacks in Ukraine, Russia sees Minsk 3 as an opportunity to retain control of occupied and annexed Ukrainian territories.\n<\/p>\n<h2>\u0141uka\u0161enka benefits from Minsk agreements<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t In February 2015 a series of battlefield failures forced Kyiv to hold talks with pro-Russian separatists in Minsk and sign agreements that undermined Ukraine\u2019s territorial integrity. Minsk 2 was perceived as a manifestation of Ukraine\u2019s weakness because it codified territorial losses in the southeastern part of the country.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Moscow saw the Minsk agreements as the continuation of the 2014 war by peaceful means. It was looking to expand its influence in Ukraine and possibly pull it back into its orbit.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Ukraine was dragging its feet on the Minsk agreements under Petro Poroshenko and Volodymyr Zelensky, while Putin\u2019s Russia insisted on implementation. In fact, \u0141uka\u0161enka was the only one to benefit from Minsk 1 and Minsk 2.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Minsk peace process enabled him to wring concessions out of the West. He cast himself as neutral host mediating a settlement to the bloody feud between the two neighbors.\n<\/p>\n<h2>2022 peace initiatives ignored<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t In the first few weeks after Russia\u2019s full-scale assault on Ukraine on February 24, Belarusian officials made attempts to organize peace talks. Minsk hoped to whitewash its image as a co-aggressor and break through the international isolation in which it found itself after suppressing post-election protests.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, Ukraine was reluctant to deal with \u0141uka\u0161enka this time. In 2014 and 2015 he somewhat distanced himself from Moscow\u2019s hostile policy, while in 2022 he unequivocally backed the Russian invasion by providing territory and infrastructure for Russian troops. Kyiv considers him a traitor and an enemy.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Despite his bad reputation, \u0141uka\u0161enka managed to organize several rounds of talks in Belarus. He did not care about results, it was important for him to persuade Russia and Ukraine to send delegations to Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The talks were moved to Turkey later and eventually suspended.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Minsk 3 would strengthen dictatorship and Kremlin\u2019s control<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The bloody war and Belarus\u2019 role in it prevented \u0141uka\u0161enka from capitalizing on his peace proposals. However, Minsk has indicated that it wants to be involved in any future Russian-Ukrainian talks.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Both \u0141uka\u0161enka and Moscow are interested in Minsk 3 to end the active armed conflict without resolving the territorial dispute. The Belarusian leader hopes that when the conflict is frozen the international community would forget about his role as co-aggressor. This might open up opportunities for a new diplomatic dance with the West. Meanwhile, Moscow simply needs time to take a deep breath.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Most importantly, Minsk 3 would enable Russia to avoid a humiliating defeat, probably the worst-case scenario for \u0141uka\u0161enka with absolutely unpredictable consequences.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Any frozen conflict would be a setback for Belarus\u2019 pro-democracy forces because it would stabilize the regime and dash hopes of its opponents for democratization.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Minsk 3 would give Russia an opportunity to consolidate Belarus as its vassal state. Although \u0141uka\u0161enka always seeks a degree of independence from Moscow, he would hardly have any room for maneuver.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Minsk 2 was a prelude to the current war. But it also contributed to rapprochement between Belarus and the West and cosmetic liberalization in the country. Minsk 3 would not pave the way for peace. It would only strengthen the dictatorial regime in Belarus and solidify the Russian sphere of influence.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Alaksandr Fridman The Ukrainian president has rejected negotiations on a new Minsk agreement. Minsk 3 would not bring about peace and would enable Russia to recover and start a new campaign of terror and global destabilization, he told the G-20 in Bali, Indonesia, earlier this week. Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Vladimir Putin, accused the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11499","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Minsk interested to have Russian-Ukrainian conflict frozen on Moscow\u2019s conditions | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr Fridman The Ukrainian president has rejected negotiations on a new Minsk agreement. 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