\n By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/b>\n<\/p>\n
\n Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka seems to have doubts about the role of the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly. He reprised the theme on November 8 at a government conference that he called to discuss legislation unrelated to the new branch of power. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n \n\t The Belarusian leader has trumpeted the assembly as a brilliant idea, but his arguments are less than sure-footed.\n<\/p>\n \n\t The assembly has a supervisory authority under the Constitution approved at a widely condemned referendum on February 27.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Authorities held from October 24 to November 2 an imitated public discussion of a bill that would govern the assembly. It is expected to convene before May 2024 (within 60 days after the parliamentary and local elections scheduled for February 25, 2024).\n<\/p>\n \n\t The Constitution allows the head of state to chair the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly in addition to performing his core duties.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Andrej Kazakievi\u010d, director of the Political Sphere think tank, says that \u0141uka\u0161enka wants both jobs to have all powers concentrated in one hands. In an interview with the Viewer, he noted that the Belarusian leader sees that option as less risky.\n<\/p>\n \n\t The legislation, as it stands, provides that the 1,200-seat assembly would be formed of officials; local deputies, who are technically elected but are, in fact, handpicked by the executive; and members of \u201ccivil society,\u201d the term coined by officials to describe pro-government and government-established associations.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Voters would be locked out of the delegation process. \u0141uka\u0161enka pushed back hard against any suggestion that the process is undemocratic, claiming that all delegates are anyway elected by the people \u201cone way or the other.\u201d He noted that those who asked whether workers and political parties would be represented \u201cdon\u2019t quite get the point.\u201d\n<\/p>\n \n\t \u201cAs the basic provisions of the Constitution were prepared I have always cautioned you, God forbid us landing in some sphere of so-called democracy,\u201d the Belarusian leader told officials on November 8.\n<\/p>\n \n\t That he considers Western democracy a perverse and flawed system is not new. What worries him most is that his authoritarian system may fall apart as a result of his own political reform, Kazakievi\u010d noted.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Indeed, \u0141uka\u0161enka warned officials against expecting revolutionary changes.\n<\/p>\n \n\t \u201cIf we start drastically to break it down, it would be almost revolutionary change. We saw in the mid-1990s what it can lead to,\u201d he said in an apparent reference to the collapse of the Soviet Union.\n<\/p>\n \n\t He has repeatedly said throughout his rule that Mikhail Gorbachev\u2019s decision to open up politics was a blunder.\n<\/p>\n \n\t The Belarusian ruler is nervous because the time has come to modify the political system as required by the new Constitution, Kazakievi\u010d stressed.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Political reforms have never come easy for \u0141uka\u0161enka, he told The Viewer. He discussed possible changes in the political system many times after the 1996 constitutional referendum, but always delayed action. He always said that the existing system was functioning smoothly, Kazakievi\u010d recalled.\n<\/p>\n \n\t The All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly is a major political change, so the Belarusian ruler worries that something may go wrong, he added.\n<\/p>\n \n\t The assembly is supposed to supervise the executive branch. \u201cThe new body may turn out to be absolutely dysfunctional and may replicate the key functions of the vertically-structured executive,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Kazakievi\u010d pointed out that after the assembly is established \u0141uka\u0161enka is likely to run for another term in 2025. He is not expected to rewrite the Constitution to abolish direct presidential elections in favor of a Chinese-style vote at a gathering of his supporters, but he will not hesitate to revert to terror to ensure his smooth re-election, he said.\n<\/p>\n \n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka wants Belarus to remain an authoritarian state after his personalist rule comes to an end, said Valieryj Karbalevi\u010d, a Belarusian political analyst, noting that the objective is hardly feasible.\n<\/p>\n \n\t \u201cThe ruler\u2019s departure usually triggers a crisis of the system. In personalist regimes, only the leader is functional, other institutions are not functional,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n \n\t The All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly may throw the system off balance, he noted.\n<\/p>\n \n\t The assembly is not any good for making key decisions because its delegates convene only once a year for a session that lasts several days, he said.\n<\/p>\n \n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka initiated the constitutional reform as his government struggled to suppress post-election protests. He hoped that changes would help him rally his supporters and ease political tension. Now that the new Constitution has been adopted, he fears that the reform may undermine the system. His repetitious and unconvincing explanations expose his lack of confidence.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka seems to have doubts about the role of the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly. He reprised the theme on November 8 at a government conference that he called to discuss legislation unrelated to the new branch of power. The Belarusian leader has trumpeted the assembly as a brilliant idea, but his […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11495","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDenigration of democracy<\/h2>\n
Presidential election to be a state-enforced ritual <\/h2>\n
Authoritarian or personalist rule?<\/h2>\n