{"id":11489,"date":"2022-10-26T10:57:37","date_gmt":"2022-10-26T07:57:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/europe-fences-off-belarus-should-try-to-woo-it-away-from-russia\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"europe-fences-off-belarus-should-try-to-woo-it-away-from-russia","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11489\/","title":{"rendered":"Europe fences off Belarus, should try to woo it away from Russia"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Pave\u0142 Macukievi\u010d, of the Center of New Ideas<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t * Reproduction is allowed\n<\/p>\n

\n Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka is working frantically to maneuver his way out of trouble amid international sanctions against his regime over human rights abuses and its involvement in Russia\u2019s assault on Ukraine. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

Frozen ties with West<\/h2>\n

\n\t Election fraud, the crackdown on dissident and other outrageous acts have prompted the West to freeze ties with the Belarusian government. The West has shut the door not only on \u0141uka\u0161enka but also on Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t While \u0141uka\u0161enka has hardly any chance of rebuilding trust, the European Union and United States could still engage with officials within his system in critical areas such as military threat reduction, border security and migration on condition that the top leadership does not intervene in the negotiations and Belarusian officials involved have not had reputation stained by human rights abuses.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t After all, after the disputed presidential election of 2020, Western officials have already contacted \u0141uka\u0161enka on issues that only he could resolve. Since he controls everything in country, limited contacts could open up opportunities for Belarus to engage with the West.\n<\/p>\n

Belarus\u2019 role in Russian-Ukrainian war can change<\/h2>\n

\n\t Wars force nations to form unusual alliances. The West would welcome any help from Belarus in its standoff with the Kremlin, even if it came from its authoritarian leader.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus has been playing a passive and destructive role as a staging ground for Russia\u2019s attacks on Ukraine. If it stopped providing its territory to the aggressor, it could play a positive role. So far, the West has not been doing enough to encourage Minsk to reconsider its role. Its effort has been limited to phone calls from the French president and Swiss foreign minister at the early stage of the conflict. More contacts on the matter are possible in the future.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Not a single foreign leader has maintained as close communication with Vladimir Putin as \u0141uka\u0161enka. The Belarusian leader must be aware of the Kremlin\u2019s plans to a certain extent and can be potentially considered by the West as a channel for communication with Russia or as a source of important information about Russia.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Western politicians have not yet approached him, but Western media have.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian regime is holding thousands of political prisoners. The West cannot secure their release without shaking hands with \u0141uka\u0161enka. This is another area for negotiations. \n<\/p>\n

Impact of sanctions<\/h2>\n

\n\t The West has adopted several packages of sanctions against the Belarusian regime since October 2020. However, the number of known political prisoners rose from a hundred in October 2020 to at least 1,350 in October 2022.  \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Restrictive measures have not helped free a single political prisoner. Meanwhile, opposition leader Sviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja and her camp insist that the West should keep up pressure.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The restrictions have forced Belarus to redirect its exports primarily to Russia, which is expected to account for 70 percent of the country\u2019s total sales at the end of 2022. Belarus has become much more reliant on Russia in economic and military matters.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It has failed so far to boost ties with Asian countries to counterbalance Russian influence.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In the last few months, \u0141uka\u0161enka met with the leaders of China, India, Turkey and other countries on the sidelines of international forums. These contacts might have opened up new opportunities and have prevented the West from further isolating his regime.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moreover, the ambassadors of some European states such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary, the Order of Malta, Switzerland and Vatican have presented their credentials to \u0141uka\u0161enka. Minsk maintains close ties with Serbia, and \u0141uka\u0161enka sent letters to the presidents of Bulgaria, Cyprus, Italy and Malta on various occasions in the last two years.\n<\/p>\n

Kremlin\u2019s puppet?<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Belarusian leader\u2019s role in Russia\u2019s assault on Ukraine has fed the perception that he is the Kremlin\u2019s puppet. Western politicians say that any dealings with \u0141uka\u0161enka make no sense because he is fully dependent on Moscow.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the other hand, \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s wrongdoings have somewhat faded as contrasted with Vladimir Putin\u2019s aggressive stance. If Belarus avoids direct involvement in fighting in Ukraine, the perception will persist. As time goes by and new leaders emerge in the United States and Europe, the contrast may play into \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s hands.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moreover, Russia\u2019s influence in Belarus has certain limits. \u0141uka\u0161enka reshuffles his government and security services without consulting Moscow.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Kremlin cannot remove \u0141uka\u0161enka from power, and the Belarusian leader does not necessarily comply with all of its wishes. It is true that he has little room for maneuver, but he is not yet out of commission.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t As far as Belarus\u2019 future is concerned, the problem is not only about its dependence on Russia, but also about the lack of interest in the West in drawing Belarus closer to its camp.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka seeks to hold on to power as long as possible and will stick with those who can prolong his tenure. If he sees the West take the upper hand, he will dump Russia. Once he senses Russia\u2019s defeat, he will make overtures to the West.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian strongman is aware that the threat emanating from the Kremlin is much more than the West can handle. He sees evidence of that in Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

Importance of long-term planning<\/h2>\n

\n\t The West reacts to developments and acts based on the situation, whereas it should model the future and prepare for it.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t For instance, its demand for a re-run of the presidential election is losing its relevance as Minsk prepares to hold presidential, parliamentary and local elections in 2025. It is time to consider what can be done to prevent \u0141uka\u0161enka from running instead of insisting on a re-run.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The West has spent much more cash on fencing off Belarus \u2013 the border walls cost Lithuania \u20ac150 million and Poland \u20ac350 million \u2013 than on support for the country\u2019s pro-democracy forces. It prefers to build walls rather than tackle issues.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Incidentally, after the forced landing of a Ryanair flight in Minsk, Western politicians said they would never deal with \u0141uka\u0161enka again. A few months later, Germany\u2019s chancellor phoned the Belarusian ruler twice to discuss the migrant crisis.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Talking is not appeasement, although the calls certainly inflated \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s sense of self-importance. It was as easy as winking for the chancellor to make contact, and it might have helped to eventually ease the crisis.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus is represented on the international scene not only by \u0141uka\u0161enka but also by the charming opposition leader Sviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja. But \u0141uka\u0161enka keeps a tight grip on the country, and therefore contacts with him cannot be avoided as long as he is in power.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Limited contacts are needed not to appease \u0141uka\u0161enka but to resolve pressing issues in Belarus and the region, in particular to secure the release of prisoners or talk him out of deeper involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian war. The West needs a strategy to make sure that contacts bring about change in Belarus rather than save his regime.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Pave\u0142 Macukievi\u010d, of the Center of New Ideas * Reproduction is allowed Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka is working frantically to maneuver his way out of trouble amid international sanctions against his regime over human rights abuses and its involvement in Russia\u2019s assault on Ukraine. Frozen ties with West Election fraud, the crackdown on dissident and other […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11489","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEurope fences off Belarus, should try to woo it away from Russia | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Pave\u0142 Macukievi\u010d, of the Center of New Ideas * Reproduction is allowed Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka is working frantically to maneuver his way out of trouble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11489\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Europe fences off Belarus, should try to woo it away from Russia 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