{"id":11485,"date":"2022-10-17T09:04:20","date_gmt":"2022-10-17T06:04:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/minsk-sounds-alarm-over-new-threats-to-justify-role-in-russias-military-drive\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"minsk-sounds-alarm-over-new-threats-to-justify-role-in-russias-military-drive","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11485\/","title":{"rendered":"Minsk sounds alarm over new threats to justify role in Russia\u2019s military drive"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t * Reposting is allowed\n<\/p>\n

\n Belarusian officials have been crying out loud about new threats to justify Minsk\u2019s deeper involvement in the Kremlin\u2019s military campaign, and the deployment of a joint Belarusian-Russian regional group of forces to Belarus.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The foreign minister said on October 12 that Belarus had announced a state of counter-terror operation but other officials corrected him the following day, describing the country\u2019s state as \u201ca high terrorist danger\u201d and denying plans for a counter-terror crusade.\n<\/p>\n

Security agencies see critics as terrorists<\/h2>\n

\n\t In the last two years, the Committee for State Security (KGB) has indiscriminately labeled its critics as terrorists. The agency\u2019s blacklist includes opposition leaders and journalists.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Still, Foreign Minister Uladzimir Makiej made headlines last week when he declared that Belarus had launched a counter-terror operation. \u201cWe received information that certain neighboring states are planning provocations connected, almost, with the seizure of certain areas of the territory of Belarus.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The vague statement was difficult to comprehend, especially the \u201cconnected, almost,\u201d part. It came days after KGB Chairman Ivan Tertel said that foreign intelligence services had trained 100 to 300 militia in Ukraine, planning to capture a district city in Belarus as a bridgehead for an offensive.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He said terrorist groups were being formed in Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine with support from these countries\u2019 special services. More powerful intelligence agencies, such as the CIA, were stealthily managing the process, he added.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the same day, the Investigative Committee opened a criminal investigation against the Kalino\u016dski Regiment, a unit formed of Belarusian volunteers fighting Russian forces in Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The regiment and other Belarusian units operate under command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although Belarusian officials point their finger to Ukraine as the major threat, Minsk expressed skepticism about a recent proposal by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that international peacekeepers should be deployed at the Ukrainian-Belarusian border to assuage the generals\u2019 concerns. \n<\/p>\n

Militarization<\/h2>\n

\n\t Minsk has employed the besieged fortress narrative to justify its deeper involvement in the Russian assault on Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka indicated on October 14 that Minsk and Moscow had agreed to deploy a regional group of forces in response to a heightened terror alert.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Union State military doctrine provides that Belarus and Russia deploy a regional group of forces \u201cin a period of an increased military threat (a period of a direct threat of aggression).\u201d It does not mention terrorism.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The regional group includes Russia\u2019s First Tank Army. How can it prevent terrorists from hijacking a plane?\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The plan to deploy the group must have originated at the Kremlin, while \u0141uka\u0161enka could not but accept it. Now he plays up threats to save face and justify his country\u2019s militarization.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The bigger a threat Minsk paints, the more convincing its arguments will be. Not surprisingly, officials have been making inconsistent statements about a state of alert declared in the country.\n<\/p>\n

Russia unlikely to attack Ukraine from Belarus<\/h2>\n

\n\t Generals\u2019 explanations that the group is deployed to defend Belarus are simply not credible. In February, Belarusian generals and Makiej claimed that Russian troops would leave Belarus after joint maneuvers, but the contingent marched on Ukraine instead.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The question mark is whether Russia has enough materiel and personnel for a new assault from Belarus. Reports have been coming in that the Belarusian Armed Forces have sent main battle tanks in the opposite direction as Russian forces continue to struggle in eastern Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In addition, Ukraine has beefed up security at the Ukrainian-Belarusian border to prepare for a new offensive on Kyiv.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The deployment might be just about sending drafted Russian reservists to Belarus for training. It addition it would fix some Ukrainian forces in northern Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Minsk has ramped up rhetoric to avoid direct involvement in the conflict under the pretext that it is defending the Belarusian-Russian alliance\u2019s western flank from both NATO and terrorists. On the other hand, it can use the same narrative to justify Belarus\u2019 direct participation in the war.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN * Reposting is allowed Belarusian officials have been crying out loud about new threats to justify Minsk\u2019s deeper involvement in the Kremlin\u2019s military campaign, and the deployment of a joint Belarusian-Russian regional group of forces to Belarus. The foreign minister said on October 12 that Belarus had announced a state of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11485","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMinsk sounds alarm over new threats to justify role in Russia\u2019s military drive | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN * Reposting is allowed Belarusian officials have been crying out loud about new threats to justify Minsk\u2019s deeper involvement\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11485\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Minsk sounds alarm over new threats to 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