{"id":11483,"date":"2022-10-11T10:23:08","date_gmt":"2022-10-11T07:23:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/regional-group-deployment-may-not-lead-to-lukasenkas-direct-involvement-in-war\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"regional-group-deployment-may-not-lead-to-lukasenkas-direct-involvement-in-war","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11483\/","title":{"rendered":"Regional group deployment may not lead to \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s direct involvement in war"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t * Reproduction not allowed\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <span>Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s announcement that Belarus and Russia have been deploying a regional group is not yet a sign that the Belarusian ruler has finally agreed to the Belarusian armed forces\u2019 direct involvement in the Russian assault on Ukraine.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<h2>Minsk keeps trying to wriggle out<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t As Russia seeks to step up its campaign of terror against Ukraine and the West, \u0141uka\u0161enka is more focused on control of his own territory.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t There is a huge difference between public sentiment in the two countries. While many Russians support the war, most Belarusians would like to stay out of it, polls suggest. If Belarusian troops attacked Ukraine, they would suffer considerable losses, which could spark unrest in Belarus. In addition, the European Union has warned that it might impose new sanctions on the regime for its direct involvement.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Obviously, the Kremlin is interested to pull its ally into the fray to make sure that Minsk cannot find an exit ramp-off. \u0141uka\u0161enka sees the Belarusian army\u2019s non-involvement as a bargaining chip for possible future negotiations with the West.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Therefore, Vladimir Putin and \u0141uka\u0161enka have divergent interests. The Belarusian leader keeps trying to wriggle out of direct participation in the Russian war of aggression.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Anti-Western tirades<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Paradoxically, he does so using extremely aggressive rhetoric. At a conference with defense officials on October 10, he claimed that Ukraine was preparing to attack Belarus and played up threats from NATO, demonizing the Poles.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t At the same time, he stressed that Belarus should prevent the alliance from launching a surprise attack on Russian forces, and therefore it should keep its troops at the Western border.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He emphasized his strategic wisdom, noting that he knew from the start of Russia\u2019s special military operation that the Western approach route was the most dangerous one for Belarus. \u201cIf we exposed ourselves there, we would have been on the brink of a war now. But we kept our forces there. Moreover, we stepped up security in the Western direction.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Incidentally, Andrey Kartapolov, chair of the Russian State Duma Committee on Defense, said on October 10 that regional group deployment was primarily intended to assuage the Belarusian leader\u2019s concerns.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Meanwhile, \u0141uka\u0161enka noted that the Kremlin cannot send a big contingent to Belarus because it has plenty of problems.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t It seems that \u0141uka\u0161enka initiated the deployment for fear of a NATO offensive.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Can Russia attack Ukraine from Belarus again?<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s remarks might be a smokescreen to disguise preparations by Russia for a new assault on Ukraine from Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Russia does not seem to have enough personnel and materiel for a new offensive. Reports have been coming in that the Belarusian Armed Forces have sent to Russia main battle tanks drawn from warehouses.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In addition, Ukraine has beefed up security at the Ukrainian-Belarusian border to prepare for a new offensive on Kyiv.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Ukraine has blown up almost all the road and railroad bridges on its side of the border with Belarus, Anatol \u0141appo, chair of the Belarusian State Border Committee, told Belarus&#8217;&nbsp;STV in an interview broadcast on October 9. &#8220;The border roads are mined completely,&#8221; he added, noting that Ukrainians have placed anti-tank mines in three rows.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka is flexing his military muscle to distract Kyiv and force it to keep a considerable military force at Ukraine\u2019s northern border. And he simply loves to test NATO\u2019s nerve.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Therefore, the deployment might be just about sending mobilized Russian reservists to Belarus for training.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Anyway, preparations for a major assault would not go unnoticed.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Certainly, \u0141uka\u0161enka is dependent on Moscow as the latter puts pressure on him to do more for Russia\u2019s victory in Ukraine. However, the regional group\u2019s deployment does not mean that he has yielded to that pressure. He is trying hard to avoid being drawn deeper into the conflict and seems to have some room for maneuver.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN * Reproduction not allowed Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s announcement that Belarus and Russia have been deploying a regional group is not yet a sign that the Belarusian ruler has finally agreed to the Belarusian armed forces\u2019 direct involvement in the Russian assault on Ukraine. Minsk keeps trying to wriggle out As Russia seeks [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11483","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Regional group deployment may not lead to \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s direct involvement in war | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN * Reproduction not allowed Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s announcement that Belarus and Russia have been deploying a regional group is\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11483\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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