{"id":11481,"date":"2022-10-08T14:18:13","date_gmt":"2022-10-08T11:18:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-maneuvering-his-way-out-of-trouble\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-maneuvering-his-way-out-of-trouble","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11481\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka maneuvering his way out of trouble"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Piotra Rudko\u016dski<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t * Reproduction is prohibited\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <span>Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka cannot afford to stay out of Vladimir Putin\u2019s geopolitical gambles. He has been trying to limit his involvement to have an opportunity to distance himself from the Kremlin\u2019s policy in the future.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<h2>Two concessions made during Sochi visit<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka met with the Russian president on September 26 and 27 in Sochi. Speaking in front of the cameras, the two leaders said they would discuss economic cooperation, Union State building and Belarusian fertilizer transits.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The two observable results of the talks were the Belarusian strongman\u2019s surprise visit to Georgia\u2019s breakaway territory of Abkhazia on September 28, and his October 4 statement to outline Belarus\u2019 role in what he called Russia\u2019s special military operation in Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The meeting took place days after Moscow had announced plans to draft some 300,000 reservists to support its Ukraine military campaign. In late September, Russia also staged referenda on the annexation of Ukraine\u2019s occupied territories.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In the run-up to the talks, Russia suffered several humiliating setbacks both on the battlefield and at the international scene, namely, Russian troops retreated from Ukraine\u2019s Kharkiv region; India criticized Russia at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization\u2019s summit; a new clash between Azerbaijan and Armenia exposed Moscow\u2019s waning influence in the South Caucasus; and Washington denied visas to two members of Russia\u2019s official delegation to the UN General Assembly\u2019s session.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Based on the context and outcome, Putin and \u0141uka\u0161enka must have discussed Belarus\u2019 role in the Russian assault on Ukraine and the official recognition by Minsk of the Russian territorial gains.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Putin might be expecting Minsk to send troops to fight in Ukraine on the Russian side and might be looking to engage Belarusian defense companies in the Russian defense industry\u2019s supply chains.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Russian president might have asked \u0141uka\u0161enka to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states and Crimea and the newly annexed Ukrainian territories as part of Russia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Although Minsk and Moscow have not disclosed any details, it is beyond any doubt that the talks focused on the Kremlin\u2019s reputational and military-political issues.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t On the surface, Minsk has made much bigger concessions to Moscow than Russia\u2019s other \u201callies\u201d Kazakhstan and Armenia. But in fact, \u0141uka\u0161enka has ceded little ground.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Private trip to Abkhazia<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian leader\u2019s Abkhazia visit followed the August declaration by the breakaway territory\u2019s leader that his \u201ccountry\u201d was ready to join the Union State of Belarus and Russia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Kremlin had made Abkhazia part of its ambitious expansion plans long before \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s trip to Pitsunda.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Kremlin-controlled media outlets described the trip as \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s first official visit to Abkhazia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t But the Belarusian state media, including the Belarusian leader\u2019s official website, reported that \u201c\u0141uka\u0161enka visited historic places on the northeast coast of the Black Sea and met with Aslan Bzhania\u201d without mentioning his official title.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In a similar fashion, Belarusian state media had ignored the July 27 visit by Denis Pushilin, leader of the self-styled Donetsk republic, to Brest.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Minsk approved Pushilin\u2019s visit to Belarus in a demonstration of loyalty to Russia, but limited its program to the regional capital.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka and high-ranking officials did not meet with Pushilin. The self-proclaimed republic\u2019s leader only met with a deputy chair of the Brest Region Executive Committee.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Kremlin, however, designated Boris Gryzlov, the Russian ambassador in Minsk, and Andrey Turchak, leader of the United Russia party, to accompany Pushilin in a bid to emphasize the event\u2019s significance.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Minsk\u2019s handling of both visits suggests that \u0141uka\u0161enka is trying to avoid the recognition of a new geopolitical configuration imposed by Moscow.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Belarus\u2019 role in Russia\u2019s campaign<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka on October 4 told defense officials in Minsk about the role that, in his opinion, Belarus plays in Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cFirstly, our participation is in preventing a spillover of this conflict into the territory of Belarus. Secondly, it is to prevent Poland, Lithuania and Latvia from attacking Belarus under the pretext of a special military operation [Russian euphemism for its war],\u201d he said, as quoted by BelTA.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cWe are participating in it and not hiding this. But we don\u2019t kill anyone. We are not sending our troops anywhere,\u201d he added. \u201cAs I said, no one will shoot Russians in the back from the territory of Belarus. This is what our participation is all about.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He added that Belarus has also provided food for and treated wounded Russian soldiers, and stressed that authorities were also taking care of Ukrainian refugees.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Shortly put, he underlined Belarus\u2019 defensive role.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Just like in the case of his Abkhazia trip and Pushilin\u2019s visit, he tried to present some arguments to counterweight his geopolitical concessions to the Kremlin.\n<\/p>\n<h2>* * *<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka is short of confidence and insecure in his dealings with Moscow but he cannot afford to pull out of Putin\u2019s military gambles. He is trying to limit his involvement to demonstrations of loyalty, which he can later explain away, as soon as he sees an opportunity to distance himself from the Kremlin\u2019s policy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Piotra Rudko\u016dski * Reproduction is prohibited Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka cannot afford to stay out of Vladimir Putin\u2019s geopolitical gambles. He has been trying to limit his involvement to have an opportunity to distance himself from the Kremlin\u2019s policy in the future. Two concessions made during Sochi visit \u0141uka\u0161enka met with the Russian president on September [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11481","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u0141uka\u0161enka maneuvering his way out of trouble | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Piotra Rudko\u016dski * Reproduction is prohibited Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka cannot afford to stay out of Vladimir Putin\u2019s geopolitical gambles. 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