{"id":11479,"date":"2022-10-03T15:33:28","date_gmt":"2022-10-03T12:33:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-visited-abkhazia-to-ease-pressure-from-moscow\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-visited-abkhazia-to-ease-pressure-from-moscow","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11479\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka visited Abkhazia to ease pressure from Moscow"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t * Reproduction prohibited\n<\/p>\n

\n Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s surprise trip to Georgia\u2019s breakaway region of Abkhazia is indicative that he is under heavy pressure to do more for Russia in its military campaign against Ukraine.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

Belarusian regime entangled in Russia\u2019s war<\/h2>\n

\n\t Ukraine\u2019s drive to retake its territory contributes to tension between the Kremlin and the Belarusian regime, which seeks to avoid deeper involvement in Moscow\u2019s military campaign.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Russian President Vladimir Putin has raised stakes by conducting sham referenda to annex Ukraine\u2019s four regions to Russia.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The move was intended to offset a negative response from the Russian public to the Kremlin\u2019s plan to draft reservists and reverse Russia\u2019s setbacks in the war. In 2014, the Russian public enthusiastically supported the annexation of Crimea with 86 percent expressing approval.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Putin hopes for a similar response to the absorption of the new Ukrainian territories. He also hopes that the public will forgive him for a bloody toll, falling living standards amid Western sanctions, international isolation and the draft.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He is trying to convince the Russians that the war makes sense and the territorial gains were worth the effort.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The draft campaign has not met with strong opposition in Russia. Support for the \u201cspecial operation\u201d has decreased by just five to seven percent, polls suggest.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t However, the annexation and sham referenda have drawn strong international condemnation. The Kremlin has revised its original goals such as \u201cdenazification,\u201d a multipolar world and others, and is just looking to annex as much territory of the neighboring sovereign country as possible.  \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Its push for new territory will deepen Russian\u2019s international isolation and prompt neighbors, including Russia\u2019s ally Belarus, to take additional measures to defend themselves.\n<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s military presence in Belarus<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Belarusian leader made a surprise trip to Russia\u2019s Black Sea resort of Sochi last week to meet with Putin. The meeting had not been announced in advance.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The talks were held behind closed doors shortly after Moscow announced the major draft campaign and plan to annex areas captured by Russian forces.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Most likely, Putin demanded that \u0141uka\u0161enka do more to support Russia in its clash with Ukraine and the West. Talks must have been very tense and involved heavy bargaining. The Kremlin\u2019s press office said that the two leaders had discussions on September 26 and 27. Minsk and Moscow have not made any statements after the talks, probably, because there was not much to say.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka appeared to have made two major concessions to Moscow. He might have approved the deployment of 20,000 Russian troops to Belarus, Ukrainian intelligence sources said.\n<\/p>\n

Surprise visit to \u201chistoric places on the northeast coast of the Black Sea\u201d <\/h2>\n

\n\t The other concession was the Belarusian strongman\u2019s visit to Georgia\u2019s breakaway region of Abkhazia immediately after his meeting with Putin. Belarus has not recognized Georgia\u2019s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. It has not recognized Ukraine\u2019s self-styled Donetsk and Luhansk republics.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Russia recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008 after its troops had invaded Georgia. It encouraged \u0141uka\u0161enka to do the same, but he refused and reached out to the West for assistance in an effort to counterbalance Russian influence. His refusal marked the beginning of the first thaw in Belarus\u2019 sour relations with the West.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia would only emphasize Minsk\u2019s status as a Russian puppet. Nauru, Nicaragua, Syria and Venezuela are the only four states to recognize Abkhazia so far.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A considerable delay in coverage of the Abkhazia trip by Belarus\u2019 state media proves that it was not planned in advance, and that \u0141uka\u0161enka decided to go there after his meeting with Putin.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It was not until September 28 that Belarusian state media reported that \u201c\u0141uka\u0161enka visited historic places on the northeast coast of the Black Sea and met with Aslan Bzhania.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The state-controlled media took pains to emphasize that the meeting was a happenstance, as if \u0141uka\u0161enka was traveling along the coast to see some historic places and met someone on the road, who turned out to be Abkhazia\u2019s leader.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka was accompanied by an uncharacteristically small delegation, two aides and his spokeswoman.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although Belarus has not recognized Abkhazia de jure, the trip means that Minsk recognizes it de facto.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka chose the Abkhazia trip as the smallest of evils, the safest and smallest concession in terms of repercussions for his reputation. He bought himself some time.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The trip has upset Belarus\u2019 partners in the former Soviet Union, Asia and the Middle East and strained Minsk\u2019s relations with Tbilisi.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d * Reproduction prohibited Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s surprise trip to Georgia\u2019s breakaway region of Abkhazia is indicative that he is under heavy pressure to do more for Russia in its military campaign against Ukraine. Belarusian regime entangled in Russia\u2019s war Ukraine\u2019s drive to retake its territory contributes to tension between the Kremlin and the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11479","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka visited Abkhazia to ease pressure from Moscow | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d * Reproduction prohibited Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s surprise trip to Georgia\u2019s breakaway region of Abkhazia is indicative that he is\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11479\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" 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