{"id":11478,"date":"2022-09-26T10:07:12","date_gmt":"2022-09-26T07:07:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/escalation-in-ukraine-to-impact-belarus\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"escalation-in-ukraine-to-impact-belarus","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11478\/","title":{"rendered":"Escalation in Ukraine to impact Belarus"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Valieryj Karbalevi\u010d<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t * Reproduction prohibited\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <span>Moscow\u2019s decision to draft 300,000 reservists will have a significant impact on both Russia and Belarus.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Russian forces may launch a new offensive on Kyiv from Belarus. The move would escalate tension and prompt Minsk to step up its crackdown on critics, forcing more Belarusians to flee their country.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Belarus affected by Russia\u2019s military campaign<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The draft campaign must have been a hard decision for Vladimir Putin. He had to admit failure of Moscow\u2019s special operation. Russian officials lied to the public for six months that the operation was unfolding according to their plan.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The call-up may meet with opposition from Russians. Some of them comply with orders because they think it does not make sense to resist, while others have fled the country, including to Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated that Ukraine seeks to recapture all of its territory from Russia, including Crimea, and bring the aggressor to account. In fact, this is possible only through Russia\u2019s capitulation.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Tension between the Kremlin and Kyiv has escalated and will affect Minsk, which continues to stick with Moscow.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Threat of new attack from Belarus<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian leader on September 20 reiterated Belarus\u2019 commitment to the military alliance with Russia. He said that Belarus and Russia \u201chave, in fact, common armed forces.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Three days later, he indicated that Belarus did not plan an emergency call-up.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Foreign Minister Uladzimir Makiej made conflicting statements at a recent session of the UN General Assembly. He claimed that Minsk was not involved in the conflict, but stressed that \u201cwe are not traitors. We have commitments as an ally.\u201d Belarusian officials have not made any statements in support of the Russian draft campaign though.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t After the call-up, Russia is likely to increase its military presence in Belarus. It is likely to use Belarusian territory more often for strikes on Ukraine. It may launch a new offensive on Kyiv from Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Moreover, there is a greater risk that Vladimir Putin will use nuclear weapons. It he does, Belarus will be impacted one way or another.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The escalation will make it more difficult for Minsk to unfreeze relations with the European Union and the United States. The Belarusian authorities may step up attacks on critics. The government is likely to scale back its amnesty program and step up attacks on its critics, including by passing legislation to strip opponents of their Belarusian citizenship.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Repercussions for Belarus<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Russia may reduce its economic support of Belarus because it will increase military spending.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t More Belarusians are likely to flee their country for fear that Belarus may eventually call up reservists.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarusians who have Russian or dual citizenship may be drafted into the Russian army.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Therefore, the military alliance with Russia has had a significant negative impact on Belarus. Minsk\u2019s dependence on the Kremlin has increased dramatically.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Valieryj Karbalevi\u010d * Reproduction prohibited Moscow\u2019s decision to draft 300,000 reservists will have a significant impact on both Russia and Belarus. Russian forces may launch a new offensive on Kyiv from Belarus. The move would escalate tension and prompt Minsk to step up its crackdown on critics, forcing more Belarusians to flee their country. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11478","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Escalation in Ukraine to impact Belarus | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Valieryj Karbalevi\u010d * Reproduction prohibited Moscow\u2019s decision to draft 300,000 reservists will have a significant impact on both Russia and Belarus.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11478\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Escalation in Ukraine to impact Belarus | 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