{"id":11477,"date":"2022-09-22T14:43:45","date_gmt":"2022-09-22T11:43:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-sees-sco-membership-as-a-way-to-break-through-international-isolation-get-room-for-maneuver\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-sees-sco-membership-as-a-way-to-break-through-international-isolation-get-room-for-maneuver","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11477\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka sees SCO membership as a way to break through international isolation, get room for maneuver"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n Pavie\u0142 Macukievi\u010d, of the Center of New Ideas<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t * Reproduction is allowed\n<\/p>\n

\n Belarus is set to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a move that could consolidate its status as a link between Asia and Europe. Western sanctions, however, considerably reduce the benefits of membership.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

Process may take years<\/h2>\n

\n\t The SCO, at its summit held in Samarkand on September 15 and 16, launched the Belarus admission process, but it is likely to take years.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It took India and Pakistan two years to obtain all approvals, while Iran waited from 2008 to 2021. Afghanistan submitted a bid in 2015, but has not yet been admitted.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Based on its Charter, the SCO is an alliance of Central Asian countries. Probably, it will make an exception for Belarus. Originally established to resolve disputes on the Soviet-Chinese border, the SCO has been looking to expand its influence in Greater Eurasia.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus is the only European country to bid for SCO membership. Now that Minsk\u2019s relations with Europe have been smashed into pieces, its geographic location is hardly an advantage.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The SCO is a talk shop, but its expansion is not conducive to fruitful debate because it admits countries involved in border disputes occasionally leading to bloodshed.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Membership of big players such as Russia and India makes it difficult for China to dominate.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t China and Russia are the major players seeking to control the region and resolve disputes. Beijing has been implementing the One Belt One Road initiative that has attracted other countries.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moscow sees the SCO as a source of international support and a way to break through international isolation. It has backed Belarus\u2019 membership bid in an attempt to consolidate its influence within the organization.\n<\/p>\n

Place under Chinese sun<\/h2>\n

\n\t It is unclear what interest the \u201cShanghai family\u201d may have in Belarus, except for its European location. Beijing does not buy into Minsk\u2019s rhetoric about the role Belarus used to play long ago.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka, at the Samarkand summit, trumpeted Belarus\u2019 transit, industrial, scientific, peacemaking and multilateral diplomacy capabilities. The truth is that the potential has been reduced to nothing by Western sanctions.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It is clear why Minsk is eager to join the SCO. This is a potentially huge market for Belarusian goods. China alone spends $2-3 trillion on imports, whereas Belarus\u2019 foreign trade totals $82 billion.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Most importantly, \u0141uka\u0161enka is struggling to fit himself into a new world order, which, he hopes, will be dominated by China. He said that the SCO has a \u201cpolitical, economic and maybe military-political future.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He is excited by the opportunity to rub shoulders with the leaders of nuclear powers and UN Security Council member states. It gives him confidence and that unforgettable feeling of being an influential player.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In that environment, he has no problems with legitimacy or election fraud. SCO missions have observed elections in Belarus since 2015. Their reports have always pleased Belarusian authorities.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The SCO member states recognize \u0141uka\u0161enka as president, so he no longer feels isolated. In terms of numbers, the SCO represents nearly half of the planet\u2019s population. On the surface, it seems to be a bustling place: \u0141uka\u0161enka even met with the UN secretary general on the sidelines.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian leader also sees the SCO as an opportunity to get off the Kremlin\u2019s hook, something that he has been unable to do since 2020. He would not risk unfreezing ties with the West because this is an option without any guarantees. The EU is unwilling to deal with him. Moreover, the Russian assault on Ukraine exposed the West\u2019s weaknesses.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka has taken the line of least resistance. He has redirected his energies to Asia. However, the policy also makes him more dependent on Russia.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Sending goods in the opposite direction may help mitigate Western sanctions, but export revenue is likely to decrease. So far, Belarus has only succeeded in redirecting exports to Russia, as it fills niches left after the withdrawal of Western companies.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Possible membership of the SCO is unlikely to benefit Belarus much in terms of trade. But \u0141uka\u0161enka hopes that it will give him some degree of political independence from Russia and a room for maneuver.\n<\/p>\n

New level of relations with Beijing<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Belarusian embassy in Beijing announced that Belarus and China have elevated their relations to \u00aban all-weather and comprehensive strategic partnership.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The statement suggests that China supports Belarus\u2019 independence, although it associates it with \u0141uka\u0161enka. Beijing is unlikely to compete with Moscow for influence in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the other hand, Moscow would not mind Beijing sharing its expenses on keeping the Belarusian regime afloat in the face of Western sanctions.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It is unclear what impact the all-weather and comprehensive strategic partnership will have on the substance of ties.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cA big and reliable friend in Europe such as Belarus will always be useful not only to the Shanghai organization, but also to the People\u2019s Republic of China,\u201d the Belarusian leaders told President Xi Jinping in Samarkand, as if he had arrived from Brussels after discussing Chinese affairs with European leaders. Beijing perfectly understands that \u0141uka\u0161enka is of no use for advancing China\u2019s interests in Europe.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t No matter what, the war in Ukraine is not a problem for China. Chinese businesses took advantage of Russia\u2019s 2014 clash with Ukraine to expand their presence in Belarus. The difference is that Minsk somewhat distanced itself from Russia\u2019s aggressive policy at the time and managed to unfreeze ties with the EU.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka may be useful to China as its advocate in post-Soviet blocs, such as the Eurasian Economic Union. Kazakhstan and other countries also may be willing to further Chinese interests.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A steadfast relationship with the EU could be Belarus\u2019 exclusive offer to secure an all-weather partnership with China, but \u0141uka\u0161enka cannot deliver what is expected of him. He will definitely try. Otherwise he will never get off the Kremlin\u2019s hook.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pavie\u0142 Macukievi\u010d, of the Center of New Ideas * Reproduction is allowed Belarus is set to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a move that could consolidate its status as a link between Asia and Europe. Western sanctions, however, considerably reduce the benefits of membership. Process may take years The SCO, at its summit held […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11477","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka sees SCO membership as a way to break through international isolation, get room for maneuver | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pavie\u0142 Macukievi\u010d, of the Center of New Ideas * Reproduction is allowed Belarus is set to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a move that\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11477\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u0141uka\u0161enka sees SCO membership as a way 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