\n\t By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN\n<\/p>\n
\n\t * Reproduction is allowed\n<\/p>\n
\n Vladimir Putin\u2019s move to escalate tension with the West is a source of discomfort for Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka and poses new threats to Belarus.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n \n\t The Russian leader has announced a plan to hold annexation referenda in Ukraine\u2019s occupied territories and draft 300,000 reservists to support the military campaign. Moreover, he has reiterated his threat to use nuclear weapons.\n<\/p>\n \n\t \u201cIf we are with Russia, then we are with Russia. We have created the common defense area, and we have common armed forces with our army being on the edge,\u201d the Belarusian ruler told Alaksandr Valfovi\u010d, chief of the Security Council, on September 20.\n<\/p>\n \n\t He pointed out that Belarus\u2019 new security concept should reflect its commitment to the military alliance.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Many observers say, however, that Belarus has simply ceded its sovereignty over defense matters to Moscow.\n<\/p>\n \n\t On the other hand, the Belarusian commander in chief has been taking pains to avoid sending troops to Ukraine to support Russia\u2019s failing military campaign.\n<\/p>\n \n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka repeatedly pointed out that Belarusian forces must protect Russian troops from a surprise attack from NATO.\n<\/p>\n \n\t \u201cAs for support of Russia, I reiterate that there must be no strike in the back, side or from the flanks on Russian troops via Belarus,\u201d he told the security chief. \u201cThis is our obligation to our ally.\u201d\n<\/p>\n \n\t Although NATO does not plan to attack, the Belarusian strongman is doing his outmost to convince Putin that the alliance contemplates a strike and that the Belarusian Armed Forces should stay where they are to keep NATO at bay.\n<\/p>\n \n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka has played up threats from NATO for years to demonstrate Moscow that he is indispensable and exact economic concessions. More recently, he employed the tactic to avoid sending Belarusian troops to Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n \n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka said that exiled opposition members and their relatives sought to stir up unrest, while Ukraine hosted \u201ceither regiments or battalions not only to overthrow our government, but to turn Belarus on its head, tear it off and attach it to NATO.\u201d\n<\/p>\n \n\t He referred to the Kalino\u016dski and Pahonia regiments formed by Belarusian volunteers to help the Ukrainian Armed Forces.\n<\/p>\n \n\t The regiments\u2019 hundred or so fighers are not a big force that can emanate a threat to the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime. At the same time, more Belarusians are getting frustrated with failure of peaceful methods of resistance to entrenched authoritarian regimes.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Russia\u2019s defeat in Ukraine can accelerate the fall of the Putin and \u0141uka\u0161enka regimes, but the outcome is not predetermined.\n<\/p>\n \n\t The Kremlin has announced the call-up in an attempt to turn the retreat around. Putin said he was not bluffing when he said he would be ready to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia.\n<\/p>\n \n\t As tension climbs, \u0141uka\u0161enka is likely to step up his crackdown on dissent for fear of new anti-government protests. He cannot back out of supporting Putin, but he will try to avoid sending Belarusian troops to Ukraine as long as possible.\n<\/p>\n \n\t However, that can be difficult if Russia annexes Ukraine\u2019s captured territory. Moscow may demand that Belarus honor its commitments within their military alliance.\n<\/p>\n \n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka has pursued a policy of integration with Russia, hoping to cash in on cheap energy and seeking protection under its nuclear umbrella.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Now that the empire has clashed with the democratic community, he is bound to the chariot wheel. He may not be absolutely happy, but he cannot escape, while Belarus has become a pawn in the gambles of the two authoritarian regimes.\n<\/p>\n \n\t <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN * Reproduction is allowed Vladimir Putin\u2019s move to escalate tension with the West is a source of discomfort for Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka and poses new threats to Belarus. The Russian leader has announced a plan to hold annexation referenda in Ukraine\u2019s occupied territories and draft 300,000 reservists to support the military campaign. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11476","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka sticks with Russia<\/h2>\n
Covering Putin\u2019s back<\/h2>\n
Army in exile<\/h2>\n
Consequences of Russia\u2019s escalation<\/h2>\n