{"id":11471,"date":"2022-09-07T21:24:19","date_gmt":"2022-09-07T18:24:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-unlikely-to-forgive-his-key-opponents\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-unlikely-to-forgive-his-key-opponents","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11471\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka unlikely to forgive his key opponents"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Alaksandr Klasko\u016dski,&nbsp;B<\/span><span>PN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t * Reproduction is allowed\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <span>The government\u2019s much-advertised amnesty program may benefit only a handful of political prisoners who demonstrate remorse. Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka does not see any immediate threat to the political system but launches the program to mitigate risks.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t At the September 6 meeting, the Belarusian ruler warned officials against&nbsp;freeing &#8220;bandits and extremists.&#8221; Authorities use the extremist label with reference to opponents of the government.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Who may benefit<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Officials made it clear that some political prisoners may be released.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cThose who have committed extremism-related crimes, who encroached on our state, who raised their hand against law enforcers can be released. But only those who have repented, realized and consider it possible to appeal to the president for a pardon,\u201d Prosecutor General Andrej \u0160vied said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cRelief is permissible only for those who really deserve it,&#8221; the Belarusian ruler said. &#8220;Justice must be at the heart: bandits and extremists are not in these ranks! Especially those who tried to derail our trains, prepared terrorist acts and tried to kill our citizens.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka indicated that the program may cover those who committed \u201cnegligible crimes, including protest-related acts.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Clearly, the authorities will not free opposition leaders such as former presidential hopefuls Viktar Babaryka, Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski and Mikalaj Statkievi\u010d, and charismatic figures like Maryja Kalesnikava and Pavie\u0142 Sieviaryniec.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Eligible for amnesty will be only those who demonstrated remorse and rehabilitated.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Officials concerned about simmering public discontent<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Obviously, \u0141uka\u0161enka would not release opposition leaders for fear that his concessions may inspire his opponents. He understands that the released activists are unlikely to give up politics.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Moreover, the move could meet with opposition from security and other officials who carried out the crackdown at his behest.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He needs a fully loyal security apparatus to stay in power a little bit longer. He does his best to show them that his lieutenants will never be held to account for reprisals against his political opponents.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t And finally, \u0141uka\u0161enka is not a person who can forgive. If he freed his opponents, he did so out of political expediency, not out of sympathy or mercy.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Horse trading with West unlikely<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka released political prisoners before in major concessions to the West. In August 2008, he freed early Alaksandr Kazulin, his opponent in the 2006 presidential election sentenced to five and a half years in prison on charges widely seen politically motivated.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In 2011 he pardoned about a dozen of dissidents arrested as police had broken up a December 2010 post-election rally. Several years later, he pardoned Statkievi\u010d, his most outspoken critic.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t At present, Belarus has more than a thousand or possibly thousands of political prisoners.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t If he releases dozens, it will not be enough to appease the West. If he releases all, his regime may collapse. The West is unlikely to lift sanctions because of Minsk\u2019s complicity in Russia\u2019s assault on Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Lack of support from voters<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Most of Belarusians now want to see the back of \u0141uka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He was popular for quite a while. When he pardoned Statkievi\u010d and several other political prisoners in 2015, he was confident that his re-election would be a technicality later the same year. The opposition was in disarray and public discontent was manageable.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In contrast, \u0141uka\u0161enka said on August 30 that he regretted not abolishing universal-suffrage direct presidential elections in favor of elections of presidents at a regular gathering of officials, the so-called All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cPresidential elections will destabilize the situation,\u201d the Belarusian leader said. He realizes that he stands no chance and cannot win back voters.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Vengeance<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t In an attempt to hurt opponents who refuse to show remorse, the \u0141uka\u0161enka government has drafted legislation that would allow courts to strip Belarusians of citizenship.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The legislation targets those convicted of extremism or causing serious harm to the interests of Belarus, Interior Minister Ivan Kubrako\u016d said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The interior minister described the amendments as a tool to &#8220;ensure internal security of the state and stability of the social and political system.&#8221;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka will never make any big political concessions or free his vocal critics, even if his system is on the verge. He will not make concessions when his regime is falling apart because no one will be interested in dealing with him.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Alaksandr Klasko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN * Reproduction is allowed The government\u2019s much-advertised amnesty program may benefit only a handful of political prisoners who demonstrate remorse. Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka does not see any immediate threat to the political system but launches the program to mitigate risks. At the September 6 meeting, the Belarusian ruler warned officials against&nbsp;freeing &#8220;bandits and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11471","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u0141uka\u0161enka unlikely to forgive his key opponents | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr Klasko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN * Reproduction is allowed The government\u2019s much-advertised amnesty program may benefit only a handful of political\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11471\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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