{"id":11465,"date":"2022-08-25T15:31:00","date_gmt":"2022-08-25T12:31:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-aware-of-putins-imperialist-view-of-belarus-but-cannot-break-out-of-alliance\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-aware-of-putins-imperialist-view-of-belarus-but-cannot-break-out-of-alliance","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11465\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka aware of Putin\u2019s imperialist view of Belarus, but cannot break out of alliance"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t * Reproduction is allowed\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b><span>The German chancellor\u2019s revelation that Vladimir Putin does not see Belarus and Ukraine as independent nation states has not come as a surprise for Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka. He is aware of it, but continues toying with ideas of integration of Belarus and Russia. <\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p><b><span> <\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<p>\n\t There was no real reason for the war started by Russia in Ukraine other than Putin&#8217;s conviction that Belarus and Ukraine should belong to Russia instead of being separate states, said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during the Open House Day in the German federal government earlier this week.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Putin\u2019s view of Belarus<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The Russian leader presented his view on the Ukrainians and Belarusians in his much-cited article \u201cOn the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,\u201d claiming that the large Russian nation is a triune people comprising Velikorussians (Russians), Malorussians (Ukrainians) and Belorussians (Belarusians).\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He accused the Bolsheviks of treating the Russian people as inexhaustible material for their social experiments and chopping Russia into pieces.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Putin said that he shared the view that \u201cthe republics that were founders of the Union, having denounced the 1922 Union Treaty, must return to the boundaries they had had before joining the Soviet Union.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cIn&nbsp;other words, when you leave, take what you brought with you.\u201d&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t That was a direct threat to both Ukraine and Belarus. Byelorussia at the time of the USSR foundation was much smaller than the Republic of Belarus within its current borders. Some ethnic Belarusian lands (including the cities of Viciebsk, Or\u0161a and Homiel) were added to it later.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Putin\u2019s ignored the fact that ethnic Belarusian lands had been captured by the Russian Empire.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Putin\u2019s cautious attempts to incorporate Belarus into Russia<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t In 2002, \u0141uka\u0161enka voiced his indignation at Putin\u2019s alleged proposal on the incorporation of Belarus into Russia. \u201cEven Lenin and Stalin did not think of breaking up Belarus into pieces to incorporate it in the RSFSR or USSR,\u201d he said after a meeting with the Russian leader.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He later rejected a number of similar overtures, accusing Moscow of misinterpreting \u201cintegration\u201d as incorporation of Belarus into Russia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Despite Moscow\u2019s attempts to encroach on Belarus\u2019 independence, the Belarusian ruler always gambled on integration with Russia in a bid to wring economic concessions out of the Kremlin.\n<\/p>\n<h2>No need for Putin to occupy Belarus<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The Kremlin does not need what it calls \u201cspecial operation\u201d to absorb Belarus as long as the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime fully supports it and depends on it. For this reason, the Russian government has never announced any expansion plans involving Belarus. Russia continues is campaign to subdue Belarus under the guise of deeper integration and Union State building.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In 2019, \u0141uka\u0161enka was independent enough to reject Moscow\u2019s integration roadmaps, whereas in 2021 he was forced to sign 28 Union State programs. In early 2020, he met with Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state at the time, to discuss oil deliveries from the United States to mitigate Belarus\u2019 dependence on Russia supplies. Now contacts of that level are impossible because Washington no longer recognizes him as president.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Although \u0141uka\u0161enka lost public support by 2020, he did not have the will to step down. The Kremlin asked too a high price for backing him amid social unrest \u2013 Moscow has turned Belarus into a vassal state and treats \u0141uka\u0161enka as its puppet.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka seems to worry about it. \u201cIf someone thinks \u2013 media often write about it \u2013 that Belarus is occupied, \u0141uka\u0161enka decides nothing, there is no authority in Belarus and [Vladimir] Putin walks in Belarus and decides everything . . . Remember, not a single step in Belarus, especially today, is made without President \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s approval or order,\u201d he told officials last month.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Moscow has given him a free hand to crack down on pro-democracy and nationalist activists because this is completely in line with its imperialist policy.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t On the other hand, he has no freedom to act on the international stage.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In 2015, the Belarusian strongman cast himself as a piece broker and even hosted top-level Ukraine peace talks in Minsk. He distanced himself from Moscow\u2019s annexation of Crimea and was making overtures to the West.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t By contrast, in February he defended Russia\u2019s assault and ruptured ties with Ukraine although the war has not brought him any benefits.\n<\/p>\n<h2>\u0141uka\u0161enka trying to convince Moscow he is still useful<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The Russian-Ukrainian war has disrupted Belarus\u2019 trade ties with Ukraine. Minsk faces Western sanctions that may undercut the country\u2019s economy.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Western politicians do not see \u0141uka\u0161enka as an independent decision-maker and would not engage with him to start a dialogue. Minsk is afraid to engage with the West for fear of provoking the Russian bear.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka hopes that Putin will not go ahead with incorporation because the Kremlin could benefit from Belarus\u2019 formal attributes of independence and from having an additional UN vote in its favor.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Moscow is aware that any attempt to annex Belarus would meet with a response from the West and possibly with resistance from Belarusians.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In June, \u0141uka\u0161enka appealed to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, \u201cI think you will support the idea. I am sure you will support it. We are not so stupid to incorporate anyone, as they say in the West, or to include either Russia into Belarus or Belarus into Russia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cWe are smart enough to build such a structure of our two independent states\u2019 relations that others in the world would envy. We are moving towards it.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He is trying to convince Moscow that he is more useful as leader of an independent Belarus than as governor of Russia\u2019s North-Western Province\n<\/p>\n<h2>How to defend Belarusian revolution from Russian tanks?<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Putin does not need to annex Belarus as long as he can use its territory for attacks on Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Besides, Russia has already made big strides to expand its influence. Last year, it forced the Belarusian ruler to sign the 28 integration programs. This year, it turned Belarus into its big military base. Next to come are a single currency and supranational agencies.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarus\u2019 future depends on Ukraine\u2019s present to a great extent. Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine is not going according to Putin\u2019s plan, and he has not yet achieved his objectives. Ukraine is not strong enough to defeat Russia. The sides may be looking soon for a suspension of hostilities.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Therefore, the Kremlin may still be able to support the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime or its successor. The Belarusian government has coddled and cosseted its security personnel and issued weapons to its supporters, hoping that they can protect it from another public uprising. Police continue to crack down on any manifestations of dissent.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Any hypothetical plan for armed resistance to the regime has a major weakness \u2013 it may meet with a military response from Moscow.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t It is not that opponents should give up fighting. They just need a clear strategy that should include a point on how to neutralize the Russian threat.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN * Reproduction is allowed The German chancellor\u2019s revelation that Vladimir Putin does not see Belarus and Ukraine as independent nation states has not come as a surprise for Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka. He is aware of it, but continues toying with ideas of integration of Belarus and Russia. There was no real reason [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11465","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u0141uka\u0161enka aware of Putin\u2019s imperialist view of Belarus, but cannot break out of alliance | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN * Reproduction is allowed The German chancellor\u2019s revelation that Vladimir Putin does not see Belarus and Ukraine as\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11465\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" 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