{"id":11453,"date":"2022-08-01T14:30:49","date_gmt":"2022-08-01T11:30:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-finds-room-for-maneuver-despite-pressure-from-kremlin\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-finds-room-for-maneuver-despite-pressure-from-kremlin","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11453\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka finds room for maneuver despite pressure from Kremlin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t * Reproduction is allowed\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has found some room for maneuver despite his heavy dependence on Russia.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Is Belarusian ruler trapped?<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka found himself in almost complete international isolation after his disputed win in the 2020 presidential election and post-election protests against vote rigging and police brutality. His disapproval rating remains high and the Kremlin is aware of it because Kremlin-controlled organizations conduct regular surveys among Belarusians.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Although Belarus reported tepid growth in 2021, the country was heading for recession last year, while its regime could face a severe cash shortage. Observers expected the Kremlin to ask tough questions of the Belarusian ruler.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Moscow could have forced him to formally recognize Crimea as Russia\u2019s territory and Ukraine\u2019s breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk People\u2019s Republics as independent states, unconditionally support the Kremlin in Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, fulfill all integration agreements and give up any attempts to diversify trade and assert Belarusian ethnic identity.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka refrained from backing Russia\u2019s invasion of Georgia in 2008 and annexation of Crimea in 2014. He occasionally expressed a partial understanding of Russia\u2019s motives and occasionally blamed Moscow for disrupting international order. By contrast, he offered his full political, propaganda and infrastructure support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, five months into the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Kremlin has not forced him into complete submission. He demonstrated a degree of independence in diplomacy and the national identity policy.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Overture to EU<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Belarus\u2019 foreign minister on April 6 sent out letters to EU diplomatic missions calling for an end to sanctions and dialogue. In the message, which was leaked to the media, he did not openly criticize Moscow, but its wording and spirit suggested that Minsk was looking for some sort of a compromise. Foreign Minister Makiej hoped that EU diplomats would read between the lines.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Stress on Belarusian identity<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t In an apparent cautious attempt to assert Belarusian identity, the Belarusian leader said at a grand rally on July 2, \u201cIt is important for us to remember that it was on the basis of Belarusian ethnos that the unique state entity, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, was established. It was the first Belarusian state.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The statement came shortly after \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s meeting with Vladimir Putin. It might be indicative of some tension between the two leaders. Any positive references to the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, which fought more than dozen wars with the Grand Duchy of Moscow, always irritate Russian officials and ideology officers.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t One week after that statement, the Belarusian leader declared that \u201ca real Belarusian must be ready to defend his country with arms in his hands.\u201d He made that remark in Belarusian.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>DNR recognition<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka has consistently delayed recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People\u2019s Republics.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cDe facto we have recognized that there is Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk,\u201d he told AFP earlier this month. \u201cAll that gossip why \u0141uka\u0161enka recognized or not . . . If necessary, we will recognize by presidential edict. But it won\u2019t get you anywhere now,\u201d he told AFP last month.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t On July 27, Denis Pushilin, governor of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People\u2019s Republic, was seen in Brest, southwestern Belarus, in the company of Andrey Turchak, leader of the United Russia party, and Russian Ambassador Boris Gryzlov.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka would not met with Pushilin, while state media would not cover his visit.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Although Russia has recognized the Donetsk and Luhanks republics as independent states and \u0141uka\u0161enka supported its \u201cspecial operation\u201d against Ukraine, Belarus\u2019 state-controlled BelTA news agency described the DNR and LNR as self-proclaimed republics in its recent reports.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Kremlin does not need punitive operation against Belarus<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka is ready to go all lengths to hold on to power. He can oppress the Belarusian people and break off ties with the West. He can put integration agreements with Russia on hold despite his heavy reliance on Moscow for his political survival.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t While the Belarusian leader is prepared to take risks, the Kremlin cannot afford an open conflict with its last ally. As long as uncertainty remains over the outcome of Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, the Kremlin would always be trying to avoid the dilemma of losing Belarus or launching a punitive operation against it.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The West has engaged with Nicolas Maduro to contain Russia. The Kremlin can never be sure that it will not engage with \u0141uka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Kremlin\u2019s fear of losing its last ally gives the Belarusian ruler some room for maneuver.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies * Reproduction is allowed Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has found some room for maneuver despite his heavy dependence on Russia. Is Belarusian ruler trapped? \u0141uka\u0161enka found himself in almost complete international isolation after his disputed win in the 2020 presidential election and post-election protests against vote [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11453","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u0141uka\u0161enka finds room for maneuver despite pressure from Kremlin | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies * Reproduction is allowed Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has found some room for\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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