\n\t * Reproduction prohibited\n<\/p>\n
\n By Alaksiej Stry\u017eevi\u010d, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n \n Belarus\u2019 economy contracted by 3.4 percent from January to May. The decline is attributable to new sanctions targeting Minsk for its role in Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n \n\t Belarus\u2019 gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.7 percent in January 2022 despite restrictive measures that had been imposed on Minsk over allegations of vote rigging and human rights abuses.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Sanctions were tightened after Alaskandr \u0141uka\u0161enka allowed Russian troops and weapons to move through the country\u2019s territory, use its airspace and territory to attack Ukraine, refuel and store military equipment.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Belarus\u2019 GDP fell by 8.6 percent in May year on year.\n<\/p>\n \n\t \u201cThe main shock for the Belarusian economy was the lack of access to Ukraine, the second largest market after Russia,\u201d said Ale\u015b Alachnovi\u010d, opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s aide for economic reform. \u201cThat caused more pain than the sanctions introduced by 40 countries.\u201d\n<\/p>\n \n\t \u201cUkraine was the premium petroleum market for Belarus,\u201d said Le\u016d Lvo\u016dski, of the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center. \u201cDespite the war, Ukraine managed to find other petroleum suppliers in Poland and Azerbaijan.\u201d\n<\/p>\n \n\t Belarus\u2019 exports to Ukraine accounted for more than five percent of GDP before the war.\n<\/p>\n \n\t \u201cThe lowest point has not yet been reached,\u201d Alachnovi\u010d said. \u201cGDP decline is expected to be in double digits \u2013 10 to 12 percent \u2013 in certain months. Belarus could sell some sanction-hit goods under old contracts before, but it cannot do it after July 4.\u201d\n<\/p>\n \n\t Earlier restrictive measures failed to make an impact, he admitted. Belarus saw its exports to the European Union (EU) grow by 74 percent and sales in Ukraine, by 72 percent in 2021.\n<\/p>\n \n\t \u201cExports were rising on the back of soaring global prices after the pandemic as economies recovered around the globe,\u201d Alachnovi\u010d said.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Belarus benefited from higher prices for key commodities such as oil and petrochemicals, potash and nitrogen fertilizers, furniture, timber and food.\n<\/p>\n \n\t The Belarusian government has been working to redirect exports to Russia, China and Asia.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Alachnovi\u010d is skeptical that these markets can make up the difference.\n<\/p>\n \n\t \u201cIn April, goods exports to all countries, except Russia, fell by approximately $900 from the amount recorded in April 2020. Sales in Russia rose by $200 million. The difference is minus $700 million,\u201d he noted.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Russia has been hit by sanctions as the aggressor, Lvo\u016dski said. Its economy and consumers\u2019 purchasing power also have contracted.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Belarus\u2019 exports may plunge by 40 percent this year, Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s office said earlier.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Belarus\u2019 imports decreased by 8.5 percent in the first five months. Some manufacturers have cut production amid shortages of imported parts, Lvo\u016dski said.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Overall output fell by 8.6 percent in May after rising by 2.7 percent in January. \u201cThe 11.3-point difference is a steep decline in manufacturing,\u201d Alachnovi\u010d said.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Economy minister is optimistic\n<\/p>\n \n\t Economy Minister Alaksandr \u010carviako\u016d said on July 11 that his agency was expecting Belarus to recover in the second half of the year. The government had projected a 2.9-percent growth in GDP for 2022.\n<\/p>\n \n\t International organizations do not share its optimism. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expecting Belarus\u2019 economy to contract by 6.4 percent; the World Bank, by 6.5 percent; and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, by 4 percent.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Alachnovi\u010d is expecting a decline of six to eight percent; and Lvo\u016dski, of six to 10 percent.\n<\/p>\n \n\t Economic performance depends on the external factors. If countries lift restrictions on potash transits, or Russia offers financial assistance to Belarus, its economic outlook may improve. If Belarus sends troops to Ukraine, sanctions will be tightened.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" * Reproduction prohibited By Alaksiej Stry\u017eevi\u010d, BPN Belarus\u2019 economy contracted by 3.4 percent from January to May. The decline is attributable to new sanctions targeting Minsk for its role in Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. No access to Ukrainian market Belarus\u2019 gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.7 percent in January 2022 despite restrictive measures that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11449","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n No access to Ukrainian market<\/span> <\/h2>\n
Exports down $700 million<\/span> <\/h2>\n
Imports<\/span> <\/h2>\n